Downside is the fed is reportedly about 50/50 on continuing to raise rates or pause, so this might tip it towards raising ...
UE went up and BLS report also had 231k jobs added from their Birth Death Model... Makes no sense. This model adding 231k skews it. The household report showed a loss of 310k jobs for the month. I know both sides love or hate BLS depending on who is in power. The whole thing needs to be redone. Something else to keep an eye on. Hours worked continues to decline each report. Also, the last time the two reports were this far off (between household and BLS), they revised the report by 1.3 million jobs. These models are not working the way they think it is.
I’m not a huge fan of “here’s a link” without any comment. Original poster, what’s your opinion on that link?
Was just incoming news so didn’t think it needed much comment. But i guess it is good news from a “major recession is coming” side, but likely means more rate hikes coming. And rates are likely to be stressed already because the government will have to go out and sell a bunch of bonds to cover the last few months of extraordinary measures around the debt ceiling. So net I don’t think it’s as good as the number says, but would rather have growth than contraction.
It was more than expected but I think the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. Maybe that will hold off a FED rate rise.
It is right to give Dark Brandon thanks and praise. If you want jobs in America you have to elect DemoncRATS to POTUS
Except as shown above, it isnt that simple. From a raw data point, it is good news and certainly personally for those finding work, but as a real fiscal indicator, it really Isn't that ironclad.
Economy has a lot of positive indicators. Joe has been good for it. The only negative trend is consumer confidence. I might vote republican next election just so those idiots stop lying and pumping up fake bad news to their base. Remember when nothing changed between Obama and Trump and they thought the economy went from terrible to best ever?
“A real fiscal indicator”?? I don’t know any one who calls one job report or really any single data point a “real fiscal indicator”. What is indisputable is DemoncRAT POTUS’s preside over massive job gains relative to their regressive counterparts. Largely because they’re fixing the mess they were given. It is proper however to give him thanks and praise. He has a way to go to tie quite the record set by Obama though -75 months of job growth.
Ok. Whatever. My point is just that job gains arent necessarily an indicator that your team or mine are winning the economy game. But its good for those 300k people. That much we know.
There shouldn’t be teams about the economy. More people working is always good news. I am wondering if the average work week is declining. That I also think would be good overall.
Yeah to TJ’s question to me above, that’s why I don’t usually put much comment on financial data when I post it. It speaks for itself. And I never let politics get in the way of my investments, it’s a sure fire way to lose money.
While we are seeing some pockets and signs of economic softness, we are still not seeing he downturn that people keep predicting, and it plausible that we won’t. Seems to me there is enough out there for the Fed to pause, but I won’t be upset if there were to do another small rate raise.
Couple of points. First, we won’t know what the ultimate economic effect is until rates are up to the max, and we might. It be there. second, on todays rally…I think it’s three things. First, some genuine debt relief. Second, the jobs report. But third, I think folks were holding back money for bonds, assuming that this week would be a complete cluster and impact the feds ability to sell them, meaning rates would rise. The “relatively” responsible way things were handled this week quashed those fears. So the money rolled into stocks, especially with the jobs report saying the downturn isn’t imminent. Perfect storm of a day, but not complaining.
As an aside there are record amount of cash being held by wealthy investors and institutions (2024 is going to be a good year to invest.
