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Debt limit - budget options - play the game

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by l_boy, May 15, 2023.

  1. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/national-debt-cut-game/

    This is a pretty interesting game/calculator that lets you choose what you like and don’t. The current debt is around 32 trillion. My selections cut $8 trillion but the debt still rose to $42 trillion. Do nothing and I guess it goes to around $50 trillion. I assume over a period of 10 years.

    In spite of my proposals still increase the debt, I’m pretty sure they would decrease govt debt as percent to GDP.

    My selections;

    I rejected all options to increase spending. Some of them I may support by themselves, but not in an effort to control future debt.

    Cut social security / raise retirement age - yes
    Raise Medicare premiums / raise retirement age - yes
    Cut defense 13% - yes
    Cut Medicaid - no
    Enact Republican proposals to cut spending in the house debt ceiling proposal - NO
    Let tax cuts expire in 2026 - Yes
    Raise corporate tax to 28% - yes
    Wealth tax - no
    National sales/VAT tax 5% - yes
    Carbon tax - yes
    Wall st trx tax - yes
     
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  2. oragator1

    oragator1 Hurricane Hunter Premium Member

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    If you keep the debt below the GDP increases year over year, you aren’t raising it in real terms. So your 10 trillion probably would lower it as a share of gdp…which would at least be progress.
     
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  3. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    I was a "Diligent Deficit Hawk." My 2033 debt was $43.8T.
     
  4. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Would be interested in others specific selections also.

    There were some I said yes to that all else equal I didn’t particularly like, or I think could be addressed in a better way. But the selections are what they are.
     
  5. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    Just for laughs I picked the deficit reducing option on every single item and the debt still went up $5T in 2033 from where it is projected to be today.

    Makes you realize that we will NEVER pay down a fraction of this debt, much less pay it off, not with an aging demographic, a population that isn’t growing and inflation and higher interest rates that are going to settle in for at least the next several years.

    Depressing.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2023
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  6. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    The exercise does show that it isn’t as easy as many make it out to be. However, there is no urgent need to eliminate the debt. As long as it doesn’t increase or decreases relative to the size of the economy we will probably be fine.
     
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  7. sas1988

    sas1988 All American

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    Sobering chit right there.
     
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  8. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    Damn, that is depressing. So more taxes, higher taxes won’t help reduce the deficit?
     
  9. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    I should have said the debt went up $5T, will correct. It doesn't give annual deficit results.

    Deficit comes down, but debt still increases because the deficit still exists.

    And I'm not sure what the interest rate assumptions are on federal borrowing but my guess is that whatever assumption for 2033 that is in the OMB projection is woefully low at this point.
     
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  10. slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    Compounding interest always gets you.

    Trump on CNN: “we have to default, eventually”
     
  11. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    Should I still be scared? Should I continue drinking and spending?
    Asking for my wife.
     
  12. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    She should keep spending, but you should stop drinking.
     
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  13. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Bingo!!!!!

    Welcome aboard, we are glad that you have awakened and decided to join us.

    Better late than never!

    The USG has borrowed $100K in the name of each and every citizen. With have not paying taxes that means $200K per taxpayer. Unfunded liabilities more than double those numbers. No possible way to fully or even substantially reduce this amount in the foreseeable future.

    This is not an indictment of Biden, as this has been an issue for decades, but it is interesting to note that $26T of the $32T in debt has occurred under the last four presidents. We can’t hold the president fully responsible as Congress legislates spending. But presidents have veto authorities but none have used them for at least 25 years.

    Enjoy the inflation folks, it’s here to stay.
     
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  15. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That works as long as it works until it doesn’t work anymore.

    Keeping deficits (future additional debt) in line with GDP will be extremely difficult to execute. Too many variables to try to control. I shared your theory on this until 2012. It would be possible if we had a few things we are lacking:

    1. A majority to actually see the problem
    2. Those seeing the problem actually electing people capable of dealing with it.
    3. People having the discipline to not lose their shit over any effort that the elected officials noted above do attempt.
    4. People having the discipline to realize that the party is over and things are going to really suck for a few years. While this bag of shit is emptied.
     
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  16. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    Aren't you a pub? I am 57 & Reagan is the DEBT king since my birth. Despite his 11 big tax increases. In fact, he is #3 all time. so...

    5. Stop living in la la land

    US Debt by President: Dollar and Percentage
     
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  17. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    No, I’m not a Pub. Went independent when Reagan was still in office. Percent wise, you are correct; Reagan is The King. But Bush 41 and Clinton broke the contiguous streak with relatively modest (by comparison) debt increases. Make no mistake, they all could have stopped the debt growth but chose not to.

    As for Lala Land, yes, I should have noted that we will all be cheering for FSU and UGA playing for the NC every year before my four requirements are met. I only meant to identify them, not attempt to state it as any type of probability. So thank you for forcing clarity.
     
  18. archigator_96

    archigator_96 GC Hall of Fame

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    Base line budgeting is probably the most infuriating thing to me. "Let's raise the departments budget even though we may not need it"!
    I would start there then start cutting budgets.
     
  19. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    this game illustrates the problem. You can't eliminate the DEA, ATF, Dept of Ed, Dept of energy & you can't make real cuts to the bloated military. 13%!?!?
     
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  20. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    When have you ever seen me advocate reckless fiscal policy?

    Don’t confuse my stance on abortion and abject, visceral dislike for Trump as a shitty, worthless human being with my fiscal policy, which has always been more moderate.

    You’ve illustrated the exact problem I was outlining-everyone is labeled as a team member, not an individual.