It wasn’t an outlier. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
I don't see anybody claiming bad methods. Somebody claimed it was an outlier (I haven't looked into the current polling situation in depth, so not sure about that claim), but outliers are not necessarily the product of bad methods.
It'd be pretty close to an outlier. The other five polls in their average are Biden +0.4% and that poll is Trump +6%. 6.4% from the average certainly has the suggestion of an outlier (which is not to say it is right or wrong, but it is pretty far from the average).
And there are 2 polls with trump plus 5, and nine over Biden plus 3. And the aggregate has Trump up. Not that it matters much at this point a year and a half out, but Trump is in much better shape than he has any right to be
My money is on Trump winning. Biden/Harris is a god awful ticket. As crap as Trump was, he'd've beat them last time if he'd acted semi rational wrt covid. The margins in the crucial states were tight. Trump's team will target - microscopically - certain counties/districts to suppress the vote. 10/30/24, robo call to a dem who has yet to vote: "Hello, this is _____. We have received your mail in ballot. This call is to say thank you for voting." plus much, much, more shenanigans. Further, Hiden Biden won't work well w/o a pandemic. Problem. Not hiding might do more damage. Further still, after getting blasted with FEAR, FEAR, FEAR.....seeing an old man yell & wave his fist is going to have more emotional impact on scared people than seeing Biden mumbling to a plant. Dems hubris will be their downfall. They think all they need to win is for Trump to run. caveat: I have a terrible record on political predictions.
That has largely the same set of national polls I posted. Back in 2016, it was largely a whole summer of liberals and even some moderates basically mocking Trump’s chances to win. we know how that turned out. In 2020, despite his insanity, only around 20k votes in each of GA, NV, AZ and WI kept him from winning again. Underestimate him at your own risk, especially with what will be by then a practically nursing home ready Biden. The republican voters despise the Dems, they will hold their noses again no matter what most say now and it will be another close election, unless Trump heads to jail.
The aggregate has Trump up only because it includes the outlier. The further you get from the average, the more leverage a specific datapoint will have on an unweighted average. But I will agree that it is likely close right now between them. However, I'd also suspect that the whole game is nothing but who turns out to vote. If Trump bleeds educated Republicans to voting 3rd party or not voting, then he likely loses. If they stick with him and/or young voters don't show up for Biden, he wins. The reverse, he loses.
Even without that poll it’s basically a tossup, but again, kind of a silly argument (my side included) when we are this far out, and as we both agree it will be close likely regardless.
Don't believe they do many of those for the general election this far out. I did see one for Nevada where Biden was up eight points over Trump and another in Tennessee where Trump beats Biden by 16 points.
Nah, if those states don’t like the polls or results, they can just claim fraud and then do whatever they want. Who cares about polls anymore? They are so 2000’s.
No one is underestimating Trump, but republicans shouldn’t underestimate Biden either. Biden is old but so is Trump, and I doubt Trump is as healthy. Trump has also shown he’s certainly not as stable emotionally as Biden. So Biden won’t be the issue republicans think. Biden will have his support that will vote for him, but will also have those who will be voting against Trump.
Those damn outliers…. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
remember, both of these shitty candidates are old. apprentice guy vs. Joe Befuddled is far from a done deal. never been prouder of my 33 yo record of not voting for either of these assclown parties AT ANY LEVEL!! &, I never will!
Anybody who disagrees with this is an idiot. Take back your party. Seriously, alienating half of our country is just stupid.
Ready to move on from both "clueless" Joe Biden (what a humilating experience!) and "too much baggage" Donald Trump! This country needs to move on in a hurry and leave these two 20th century dinosaur-politicians in the dust pan of history! Whatever gains that the US had received from winning the Cold War and being the world's sole superpower was soon eroded/lost with being involved in two-decade long wars: Afghanistan & Iraq. ============================================ - propping up Communist China by greedy US corporations & European allies (i.e Apple, Microsoft) that moved our manufacturing base there (& transferring/stealing of US knowledge) - Biden's disasterous Afghanistan exit has resulted in ISIS reconstituting with the Taliban - so many hot wars being ignited all over the world: from Ukraine-Russia (Bidens gives 100 billion dollars while the EU only gives 20 billion), Sudan (Biden has trouble evacuating Americans again), etc. - the unsecured US souther border allowing millions of illegal migrants to enter the US from over 100+ countries each of them owing thousands of dollars to the South American cartels. - the soon to be loss of the US dollar as the defacto world currency unit Now, there will be a consequence to burrowing money & printing even more US dollars. - speaking of which, what's with the failing banks & being bailed out by the US govt? - etc.
