Looks like Erdogan will be headed for a runoff with a real chance of defeat. Hard to imagine holding a contested election in some of the earthquake zones. I really want this bad man gone as a stable ME needs a secular Turkey. So does NATO and the EU. I fear that he will lose the election but refuse to cede power and force the military to choose. Not a good situation for the second largest Nato army to back him again. He stole the last election, will he do it again? Turkey's Erdogan Faces Possible Historic Defeat As Allies Withdraw Support Over Cost-Of-Living Crisis (msn.com) Due to high inflation and the aftermath of twin earthquakes that resulted in the deaths of 50,000 people, the country has seen a significant decline in Erdogan's popularity for the first time in 20 years. Istanbul barber Hakim Ekinci, a long-time supporter of Erdogan, told Reuters that he wouldn’t be voting for the president next Sunday, blaming the government’s economic policies that have weakened the purchasing power of Turkish citizens and made it difficult for many to afford essential food items.
If you ever doubt why the FED should remain independent, this moron kept dropping rates as inf spiraled outta control. Controversially, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to raise interest rates, insisting that it would harm the economy. Economists and critics say his policies have continued to hurt the lira and push inflation up, fomenting a currency crisis. Turkey’s central bank on Oct. 20 slashed its key interest rate by 150 basis points for the third consecutive month of cuts, from 12% to 10.5% — despite Turkish inflation at more than 83% at the time. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/tur...ontinues-to-rule-out-interest-rate-hikes.html
Elections on Sunday, I believe. This is definitely a hold your breath kind of moment. Having the Black Sea blanketed with war is usually a bad thing. East v West battles to the north and south. Eek. I have a hard time seeing Erdogan just hand over the keys. And if somehow Kilicdaraglu (sp) does gain control - how smoothly will his assumed pivot to the west and NATO go?
I really want to see Erdogan gone. The ME needs a secular anchor and Turkey has traditionally provided that
I'd caution be careful what you wish for. The toppling of strongmen in Iraq and Libya didn't exactly lead to a liberal democratic heaven springing up in their place.
Not sure Turkey is that far gone to be compared to Iraq and Libya? Although my (pretty much uneducated) guess on the matter is a transfer of power would be riskier than Brazil at least. The question is what does NATO do if Turkey goes from backsliding democracy to full on dictator (or worse, if power is seized via coup).
The biggest risk, as I understand it, is Somewhat similar to Israel and Netanyahu. In Turkey a diverse coalition of liberals, secularists, Islamists, etc are all colluding to get Erdogan out. If that happens, there will be no consensus afterwards, it may all fall apart rather quickly, and Erdogan swoops back in next election.
Turkey has a recent democratic history and lots of western values among the populace, and NATO anchoring their foreign policy. This isn’t Iraq or Libya.
I can't predict the future, but I know that Afghanistan and Iran used to be some of the most liberal nations in the Muslim world. If there's political turmoil after the election, you never know what's gonna come out of it. I'm taking a wait and see approach with Turkiye, but I can't shake the feeling that it might become the next flashpoint in the ME now that the Shia-Sunni divide is being bridged. We're facing the coming of a global recession, their economy is already in shatters, a non-Erdogan government will be composed of a hodge-podge of political entities with wildly different agenda, and Erdogan himself will be poking holes in it from the shadows. That's if Erdogan doesn't contest an unfavorable election result himself. If it can happen in the US, I can certainly see it happening in Turkiye with a strongman who's ruled the country for 20 years and has a pretty good grip on the military. I really hope it doesn't come to that. I have personal reasons too. I'm supposed to fly through Istanbul in early June, would love to not be caught in the middle of a political upheaval...
Marc Lynch had a podcast last week on it that I only now downloaded. He has regional expertise and brought in some experts on Turkiye politics. Going to listen today if I can. He's not charismatic, but does have subject matter exepertise Previewing Türkiye's Election
Erdogan is a mass murderer. HE was behind the push to not enforce earthquake building codes and in fact BRAGGED, how non enforcement stimulated the economy. What did that decision lead to? 60,000 dead and x 2 injured? Not to mention the displaced and homeless. Re-elect? B.S.! How about a public tar and feather job!!!!!
Another opposition candidate dropped out so Erd will only have one opponent. Turkish candidate drops out in boost to Erdogan's main challenger.
Erdogan is also trying to buy the election by giving public workers a 45% pay hike. Erdoğan gives public workers 45 percent pay rise in Turkey’s tight election race
Nato has an enemy within, and he’s heading for a fall (msn.com) Once hailed as a pro-business moderniser who would forge closer ties with Europe – including Turkey joining the EU – the 69-year-old Turkish president’s two decades in power have seen him adopt an increasingly autocratic approach to governing his country’s affairs, one that has acquired a distinctly Islamist outlook. This has led to questions being raised among Western leaders about Turkey’s continued reliability as a Nato ally. Tensions first emerged over Ankara’s support for al-Qaeda-linked Islamist groups during the Syrian civil war, and intensified when Erdoğan was blamed for causing the mass migration of Syrian refugees into southern Europe. These were compounded when Turkey signed an arms deal in 2017 with Moscow to buy Russia’s state-of-the-art S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, which was specifically designed to shoot down Nato warplanes. The US responded by excluding Ankara from the F-35 stealth fighter programme and imposing sanctions. More recently, Turkey has frustrated Nato leaders with its spurious objections to Sweden joining the alliance.
Musk continues his tumble down the credibility scale. Destroying whatever legacy he had hoped to build
The mean man made me defense ‘Free Speech Absolutist’ Elon Musk Under Fire After Apparently Admitting to Censoring Posts On Behalf of Gov Before Election The Turkish government asked Twitter to censor its opponents right before an election and @elonmusk complied – should generate some interesting Twitter Files reporting,” Yglesias tweeted. Musk took offense at Yglesias’ accusation. “Did your brain fall out of your head, Yglesias? The choice is have Twitter throttled in its entirety or limit access to some tweets. Which one do you want?” Musk tweeted.
