CBO Forecasts, deficits, debt

A war will help in what manner? Baby boomers are not going to fight the war millennials will.

 

Yes baby boomers will take the most when it comes to social services such as SS and MediCare. It is a perpetual problem with an aging population. The next wave that comes is GEN-Z and the millennials cannot sustain that group either. Less children and more aging has been the issue for multiple generations.

 

One big contributor to lower out year projections evidence here due to the big corporate tax cut

 

Gen Z and millennials don’t have the same numbers as boomers so the numbers will start to be better balanced. Immigrants can help but some folks are too xenophobic to see that.

 

Center for Immigration Studies despite the name is not exactly a credible source. It's an anti-immigrant advocacy organization.

Research Finds that Immigrants Promote Social Security Solvency
Immigration in the Trustees’ Report
In their 2018 report, the Social Security trustees’a low-cost projection assumes immigration (lawful and undocumented combined) will be 65 percent higher than in the high-cost scenario, because the trustees recognize that higher levels of immigration can aid the long-term financial health of Social Security. Compared with the 2017 report, the 2018 report assumes a .01 percent decrease in payroll taxes collected due to the Trump administration’s termination of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which allowed at least 800,000 undocumented individuals who arrived in the United States as children to work legally.
Future congressional or administrative action that has a large effect on immigration or immigrants in the workforce could potentially reverse these actuarial assumptions and have a positive or negative effect on trust fund solvency. For example, legislation that provides permanent legal status to DREAMers (DACA recipients) or that expands legal work avenues for immigrants could help with solvency. Meanwhile, recent regulatory changes that reduce the number of immigrants in the workforce, such as decreases in the number of resettled refugees who would join the workforce or
disallowing the spouses of H-1B workers to get jobs, would further decrease solvency.

 

Ya tax cuts are the problem

Federal receipts has increased every year since 2009 minus 2020 due to Covid lockdowns.

It doesn’t seem to matter how much we tax, we over spend. It’s insane to me the talking points for some goes right to tax cuts being a problem.

 

Until the threat of taking the world off the US dollar, the government(both sides), has no reason to fix the deficit.

 

An average of 1.94 kids per family in the US is not going to solve the problem.

Average number of own children under 18 in families with children in the United States from 1960 to 2022

 

A close second is spending what ya don't got.

Democrats not only want to end all tax cuts, but then increase taxes across the board. Ok, now we are looking at a surplus, so let's pay down this debt. Nope, they want to use that surplus to enact all sorts of Better Deals. We have the bonus of watching all these other socialist nations falling apart because they can't continue to give away free stuff and now that they are retracting some of those benefits, the people go postal. From the UK, to France, to Germany, socialism is failing and they know it.

Case in point, the UK for the first time ever are going to pull back on health benefits. They can't pay for everything so they are pulling back on some of the non-elective services. Most people in the UK have been on the waiting list for a hip replacement surgery for more than 2 years. In Canada, a woman died in the ER because after waiting 7 hours, her body gave out. She was in her 30s. She had some flu-like symptoms and as she deteriorated she told her husband she was dying and the hospital in Quebec just ignored her because they had so many people to deal with.

France is imploding because they have to work longer than 62. What a bunch of snowflakes. Ok, let me preface that with those that are close to 62 should have been grandfathered in but France is going to increase retirement another 2 years, which is still the earliest retirement in the world. But people are used to socialism and want their benefits. That crap could easily happen here, especially if lawmakers tweak social security and/or medicare. The thing is, they will have no choice with the way both of those programs are growing in cost. Both are set to equal 75% of the mandatory spending bucket or nearly all of the discretionary bucket or 5 times the entire defense budget by 2034. Because the younger generation is not doing their part because 1) lower numbers 2) not working or 3) not working long enough, there won't be social security or medicare in 10 years, at least not in its current forms. Probably looking at double the costs for Medicare coverage and reduced social security payments. There's talk of not only doing that but also doubling the SS and Medicare taxes of the younger generations.

 

I didnt say anything about a war helping, if people dont like debt and deficits, we should probably avoid a war at all costs

 

And that's where increasing immigration comes in.

 

My bad and yes I agree avoiding war at all costs would be optimal. Yet I doubt even that will solve deficits and the national debt.

 

And we know immigration does not solve the problem. Large families with kids coming across the border are rare. If immigration were the key this problem would have been solved years ago as we all know even granting amnesty during President Reagan's years solved absolutely nothing. To make matters worse current families are not adopting children at rate that would make a difference. The days of families with four or more kids are long gone.

 

I dont know if its something to be solved (the debt and deficit are forecasts based on 10 years, and congress does annual appropriations), but ultimately social & institutional stability is the key to long term national sustainability, which includes sovereign debt. Seems likely though with the arcane nature of monetary policy and various self-inflicted choke points (like the debt ceiling), we have made our own time bombs that we could easily defuse, but wont for mostly political reasons. Once we kill the golden goose, it isn't coming back.

 

Immigration vs Migration - Difference and Comparison | Diffen

 

Actually, immigrant families tend to have larger families than the rest of us. I didn't say that it would SOLVE the problem entirely but it would help. At the end of the day, you are not in favor of increased immigration, period.

 

I can't visualize America ever reforming the tax code and having an equitable tax system. Consequently, income inequality will continue, to the detriment of the country. There are several other countries where wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few. None are democracies.

 

As a member of the generation you're referring to who is actually doing pretty well and has a kid with another on the way do you blame them? For responsible people the decision to have children is financial as much as anything else. Homes cost more, people make less, medical care is more expensive, education, literally almost everything families need has increased significantly quicker than inflation for decades.

Now, I don't pretend this is all because "capitalism bad", but a combination of unrealistic expectations (see 2,700 sqft average home size, cars that look like space ships inside, private college for all) and companies seeking to squeeze as hard as they can.

What we need is to fix the values we are raising our kids with and get companies to remember they are also part of society and that being a good citizen does matter. Otherwise the new second generation immigrants will just end up in the same boat as this generation.