The economic outlook for Europe and Russia is grim. I don't see how much is going to change for either group in the short-term. War will do that. It's going to continue to decline for just about everyone. It is interesting to me that Russian apologists are essentially saying that everything is going well- when Russia has been forced to drain all of their experienced troops from all of their postings all over the world and bring them to Ukraine and the best case scenario is that they are maybe going to be able to hold on to what they took and maybe (maybe) go back on the offensive over the winter, suggesting that the war will continue for at least several more months. And if anything happens to the energy sector - which the west still has not hit as hard as it can, the Russian economy will fold. It's already riding the razor's edge, much like most of Europe as it is. And I read the linked article on the "war has just begun" and this idea that NATO is the only group using up old stocks of ammo and equipment is ridiculous. The Russians are trying to scrape stuff together themselves. Hence their purchases recently of equipment and ammunition from Iran and North Korea. Ultimately, if Russia fully mobilizes, I don't see why they couldn't defeat Ukraine. They are a much larger country with a much larger military. But this idea that they are somehow getting out of this cheaply now is dead and buried. I remember back at the beginning we didn't even think Ukraine would last 3-weeks. LOL
Wow, all of this is quite the cope that you are engaging in. Sorry the real world didn't turn out how some random guy's substack told you that it would (which you believed because you wanted to and, of course, they wouldn't just give anybody a substack).
Get ready for the Mother of All Surrenders. The truth is out. The city of Lyman will be a devastating loss to Russia, thanks to Putin's suspected "Not One Step Back" policy. Russia refused to remove its troops from Lyman as Ukraine started to encircle the city, insisting on defending it at all costs. Now they will be forced to surrender. In addition to a large number of prisoners, Ukraine expects to capture a large amount of Russian equipment and ammo. Putin's 'annexation' announcement changes little on the ground in Ukraine
Ukraine encircles Russian forces near Donetsk, overshadowing Moscow's annexation of the region | CNN Thanks @chemgator , I looked up that story and it will be a big victory for Ukraine.
I’m not so much a Russian sympathizer as I am an American who does not hate Russia but who despises US foreign policy. Moreover, I don’t assert that everything is going well for Russia. But the Russian economy on the verge of collapse ? I suspect it’s a meme. I can just as easily find numerous forebodings that US economy is on the verge of collapse. And speaking of memes, can we please dispense with the meme that the war should have been over in 3 days ? It wouldn’t have happened at all if the US and Ukraine had honored various assurances and formal accords from 1990 to 2015. That aside, going into the war, Ukraine had the largest standing army in Europe going in. Had they all laid down their weapons, maybe the war would have been over in 3 days. But damned if they didn’t shoot back. So ...
Regarding Lyman, why don’t we hear much about the Kherson and Kharkiv counter-offensives anymore ? *scratches head*
Great reference. “Nuts!” But these Russians are fighting for nothing and cannot count on support when the weather changes or there is a breakthrough from the outside. This is more like the kessel outside Stalingrad
I am glad to see Ukraine making the advances, but I fear Putin staged the referendums to provide himself a proxy to ratchet up things quite a bit. He has backed himself into a corner and that scares me, as I don't see any signals that he's going to back down. I can see this thing spinning way out of control quickly and the world won't be able to sit back and wait any longer. Love seeing the Ukrainian advances, but I'm hesitant to celebrate, because I fear it will ultimately lead Putin to do something that will turn this world upside down.
Here’s another meme, that it is Putin who is desperate, and not the bottom-feeders of a certain country (hint:not Russia) that see the prestige and primacy of their country (again: not Russia) slipping away.
Interesting I reserve the right to be wrong, but based on what I’m reading, from a Western and Russian sources, it’s shaping up to be exactly like Bastogne, except with heavier Ukrainian losses and lighter Russian losses.
Quite a stretch. Although the Americans were surrounded at Bastogne they were able to defeat the Germans when the US force at Bastogne was relieved by Patton's Seventh Army. I really don't see anything remotely similar by the Ruskies given that they apparently have nowhere near the forces equivalent to those of Patton. Additionally, the Americans were able to use their air power in support of the surrounded troops once the weather broke. If the Russians were able to effectively utilize their air power to support their surrounded troops they would have already done so by now.
I hear you, but the only country that can back down is Russia. Ukraine has no choice but to fight it out, and we have no choice but to support Ukraine for as long as they are willing and able to fight. What Russia might do if losing is certainly concerning. But what is Russia going to do next if it wins? That is even more concerning.
Shaping up with uncanny similarities but with one difference: initially, there were no regular Russian troops in Lyman. There was an LPR garrison and some Cossack volunteers, perhaps as few as 500 holding off a Ukrainian force of perhaps 6,000 and holding them at bay for three weeks now. But proper Russian regiments have arrived. And this is in advance of any of the 300,000 who are being mobilized and who might be sent to shore up the area. Yes, there are Russian sources who are livid about this. There are also sources who are mostly befuddled, wondering why any allies at all were tasked to hold the area.
Umm, no. At least, not according to this source. Russia had five times the active military personnel as Ukraine, and double the reserves. Overall, they had triple the personnel available. Ukraine was #2 in Europe. Russia also has the most tanks of any country in the world (27,000+). Largest Militaries in Europe Dataset
NYT would not know the difference between Ukrainian separatists and Russian contract troops. And based on it’s Kharkiv analysis, it wouldn’t know the difference between a panicked retreat and an orderly withdrawal.
