Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Analogous w vaccine mandate. Perhaps requiring people getting vaccinated could have huge long-term ramifications.

Mande: Don't want the shot? Don't work here.
P.E. Requirement: Don't want to adhere to the new P.E. requirements? Don't pass the class/graduate.

In fact, one might argue that the latter is more onerous.

 

Completely agree the yoga would be so good for me. And like you I just do not like it. I did a few sessions with P90X in the past and some videos. Just not my thing. Though I could see and feel how good it is for you.

 

Not proof that natural immunity is better at all! We know just under 200 million people in the US are fully vaccinated. If 124 million have had COVID, that's 324 million in a country with a population of of 329.5 million. Granted, there is overlap between the two populations. But if this were true, we would expect to be much closer to the 90% number needed for what is believed to reach herd immunity. But the fact that the virus is raging suggests we're not close at all.

Also in this chart, there are 26.5 million estimated asymptomatic cases. How many of them never got tested because they never had symptoms? How many of them later got COVID with symptoms and later tested positive? There is no way to tell how many people's first positive test is actually a reinfection, and the first time around, they were asymptomatic. But with a population of 26.5 million Americans out there who could fit this descriptions, it has happened. How often? Again, we'll never know.

One reason we are nowhere near herd immunity could be this study that suggests unvaccinated should expect to catch COVID about every 16 months. 16 months ago from the chart puts us in May, 2020. How many people, Feb through May, 2020, on the chart above are being counted twice? And how many people since Feb 2020 through July 2020 who got COVID then, are unvaccinated, and prone to a reinfection today?

So many unanswered questions that we'll likely never have definitive answers to. Too many unknowns, especially surrounding natural immunity, that making any definitive statements is silly. Especially when there are as many studies that show vaccine immunity is better as there are that show NI is better. One area where vaccine immunity is better? Traceability. We know when every dose is given, time and which vaccine. We have absolutely no idea when every person gets the virus.

 

Disease control chief: "All of Germany is one big outbreak" (msn.com)

New surge in Germany.

Sign of things to come for the northern US?

 

How about a compromise, allow for a fitness COVID vaccine exemption and implement the more stringent PE requirements?

I don’t agree with the analogy (fitness is natural), but I do think compromises can be fruitful.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

I like that you dare to dream, but the compromise would never happen. How do you measure fitness (a subjective matter)? Who will administer the exemption? As with your call for more data, this would call for vast resources. If "fitness is natural," so are medical treatments and prophylactics. Both are backed by science. And interesting that you would mandate one, but not the other.

 

You realize that vaccines are not only about the individual but the group?

The idea behind herd immunity is that if you vaccinate enough, usually north of 90% that this provides protection for the group to include unvaxxed by cutting down the vehicles in which a virus can spread. Allowing far more to opt out would defeat this critical element.

 

LOL. did you read that "study"? Holy computer estimate Batman! Let's deal in reality. You took the lowest number of estimates. Shocking. Fear is strong in you.

Not even worth it to discuss NI with someone so biased and ignorant to the topic.

 

I'd put Q and Navy on it!

The call for resources would be levied against the reduced cost in child neglect and eventually the reduced cost in adult obesity (and as already mentioned the increased mental health component). I can't see how it wouldn't be a win-win, aside from the government force aspect of things (where's the welfare of the people crowd when you need 'em!?).

I'm not big on mandates, and I would prefer to push for fitness as a pre-school prep (Alachua County has a program, not sure if fitness is included). No doubt a non-mandated approach would be far superior, and I would for the numbers to be similar between a non-mandated effort and a mandated effort to where we could recognize that the mandate isn't necessary.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

I'm not against the vaccine. But I recognize that the vaccine resistance is relatively strong. Having a criteria for opting out shows a less heavy-handed approach and may have a positive impact on those on the fence or even those not on the fence but still willing to listen. The only people I know who are both fit and vaccine resistant have already had COVID, so they may already be contributing to herd immunity anyway. I think opt outs are inevitable (like with other "required" vaccines), so why not try to establish a logical criteria?

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Not in Florida…

 

Since the vaccine doesn't stop one from getting and transmitting the virus in a meaningful way (certainly seems it helps there, but clearly not enough) and then they all seem to wane true herd immunity is likely never going to happen. See Gibraltar, Israel, Vermont. Now Israel's booster program seems to be helping for sure, but how long. And Gibraltar's overall case number is still low, but they don't have a lot of folks.

Now I'm speaking strictly on a case basis. If we are looking at severe cases, higher vax rates should definitely help and natural immunity alone won't get us there, but 16 months of protection is better than the vax which is likely 8-10 months at best.

I'm still pro vaccination for most people. But 90% vaccinated for instance at this point shows no sign of ending cases.

 

You don't want me involved. Fitness starts with nutrition and there would be quite the revolt from 97% of the population.

 

Agree with this. It is why I get blasted for recommending snap be turned upside down. We should provide prepackaged food for the week to qualifying individuals and families through grocers. We should provide food people need. Not what they want. And even a policy change like that won’t fix the overall problem. People are just not committed to the necessary change. It is not easy to make the change either.

 

Your first statement is simply false. Even if the vaccine is only 50% effective, that's half the people vaccinated who can't get and spread COVID. And 50% effective is on the lower end of the scale, after months of being fully vaccinated. The number is likely much higher.

Vaccinated people also rid themselves of the virus days faster than the unvaccinated. A breakthrough positive will likely test negative as quickly as 7 days after initial infection. Unvaccinated? More like 10 or more days. For an unvaccinated who is asymptomatic versus a breakthrough that is asymptomatic, this is 3 or more days of potential COVID transmission.

Here's a good article with a UK study of 100,000 cases and 150,000 contact traces, and those vaccinated with AZ were 36% less likely to transmit the virus. Pfizer was 65% less likely, and the AZ vaccine isn't approved in the US. Pfizer is.

 

SNAP won't change because the USDA's mission is promote the US meat and dairy industry. Some people wrongly assume the USDA is looking out for the general population but that is not correct.

 

No doubt. The lobbies will not allow snap to change.

 

More data about some of the studies done on Natural Immunity.

DEFINE_ME

/“Given the evidence of immunity from previous SARS-CoV-2 infection...policy makers should consider recovery from previous SARS-CoV-2 infection equal to immunity from vaccination for purposes related to entry to public events, businesses, the workplace, or travel requirements”

 

You would be completely wrong on this.

 

My view is those transmission reductions are not meaningful at least in the real world-for contracting and spreading the virus. The vaccines seem to lower the spread chances and duration, but this virus is just too transmissible. I didn't see a link to the pre-print in that study, but it would be interesting the time period because I do think from 1 month to 4 months the vaccines help on the spread as well.

But real world, Ireland has 87% over 12 years old fully vaccinated. From a case perspective they are as bas as they've ever been. If the vaccines meaningfully stopped the spread of a covid case that would not be occurring. Are they helping to reduce the spread--most likely, but not in such a way that we will see herd immunity on the case side.