Agree. It's a good thing deaths aren't trending in the same manner they did back then. I think it's a combination of demographics and improved treatment. Still holding my breath on this. Hard to imagine these new case numbers not driving up the death toll if they stay this high. I can imagine the front of the new spike was younger. The back half likely involves those the young infected.
And a changing demographic of the infected. The problem is if you have this much spread, hospitalizations still follow, as does mortality. Just slower.
I was just invited to another party. This time a pool party. That’s three this weekend. Not gonna do it, wouldn’t be prudent. It’s tough being popular.
Pool party going on now and birthday dinner for 20 people this evening. We are blowing off both. Heading to a friends place in an hour. One other couple, large private pool.
Thanks for sharing. Previously they had the symptomatic infection fatality rate at 0.4% and asymptomatic at 35% which results in a true infection fatality rate of 0.26%. They have now increased the infection fatality rate to 0.65% and that takes into account asymptomatic which they now assume at 40%. The fatality rate is based off a metadata analysis. I believe the 0.65% is an accurate number and matches some of the better seroprevalence data.
A mortality rate of 0.65% gives us around 1.5 million deaths at herd immunity (assuming 70% of the population infected for herd immunity).
One of the nation’s leading epidemiologists is now being dumped on by Trump and his devotees for veering outside the political narrative. I hate to see this happen to that good man of integrity at the hands of a man with none, but it’s a further push toward Biden for those who were still unsure who to vote for. It’s almost as if Orange Man wants to become a Loser. Well, more of a loser. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/11/fauci-trump-coronavirus/
Written and disseminated...what about actual verbal communication? Perhaps video teleconference to give the message.
Yes, one on one phone calls with each of 11 Directors and Managers that report to me. Group calls. Clearly not enough for one of them. I’ll do better. They will as well. It illustrates the problem. His state has had a little over 7,000 total cases since this started. Most of them in meat packing plants. He probably felt safe and eased up. Lesson learned. Hopefully with just the one positive.
