Very valid points and I do not agree with Trump that rates should be lowered by any significant amount. But that doesn’t mean that think Powell has done a good job or that he is the right chairman to lead the Fed going forward.
I bet Trump thinks that the fed can set rates like he sets tariff rates. the 10 year & mortgage rates have gone up since the last "cut"
Agree here, but that assumes the new Fed chair doesn't deploy other tools to bring the longer term yields down. Perhaps venture back into MBS purchases. He talks rate to keep the message simple, but I doubt that's all he's looking for.
I'm sure Trump wants to manipulate every market he can. So much for Deregulation. I would like to see us go in the other direction & get rid of the dual mandate.
No, my argument is that today, the market priced THIS information into the 3M price today. Tomorrow. That can and most likely will change. Your academic argument that markets efficiency is true in the averages over time. Are you really contending that the market doesn’t over/under price assets on any given time or any given day?
Do people still actually believe this economic “plan” is going to result in long term benefits for the country? I see some arguments like “there is still money to be made”. Which is kind of a ridiculous argument. Of course there is. Some people got rich off the housing crisis too - doesn’t mean it was good for the country.
I guess someone told President Mental Midget and his sidekick Trump that it is almost impossible to fire the Chairmen of Federal Reserve.
I’m not a bull yet, but I’m getting very close to going back to the trough. I have been out of stocks other than what I have to hold for some time now. Returns on bonds have been too good to pass up at my age. But this market has been beaten down by greed and politics and I know an opportunity when I see one. The tariffs as proposed will most likely never go into effect as foreign countries wake up and realize they need our consumer markets. This is a negotiation and it will be negotiated, and it won’t take years as someone posted earlier. I don’t think I’ve been a bear, just a proponent of what I just said. Why take risks with the safer returns on bonds since late 22. I’ve already stated here that I disagree with Trump in lowering rates but I still don’t think Powell is the guy. So please take your political comment and stick it
Sure, you spent years under a Democratic administration warning of the rough times ahead (as the market exploded upward) and now within 3 months of a Republican administration, the market slams downward, and suddenly, everything is great looking forward. And none of it had to do with politics. But sure, let's pretend this isn't in bad faith for a moment. What specifically are we negotiating and with whom? We are stacking tariffs on nations that have free trade agreements with us and almost no tariffs. The Japanese have already stated that they can't even figure out what the Trump people want. So what is it that we are doing that justifies raising bond rates, tanking equity markets, and weakening the currency?
If you don’t realize that most of the tariffs are reciprocal, then you won’t believe me. Please go educate yourself and come back later.
Tariff rates Trump ascribes to other countries are vastly higher than World Trade data shows In what way was calculating the tariffs based on trade deficits "reciprocal"? Sure seems to not align to the data
Lol, the tariffs were determined by a formula that, after their assumptions (which, it should be noted, came from a paper in which the authors of that paper later stated were incorrect based on their research), was just the percentage of trade deficit that was truncated at 10% on the low-side. It seems like you might need a serious education on the matter. Let me start you on your path: Their stupid chart states that the EU has a "Tariffs Charged to the USA" of 39% while the actual average tariff rate from the EU on US Imports is 1.6%. India has one of the highest rates, in reality, at 17%, but the Trump people claimed it was 52%. Argentina also has one of the highest rates, in reality, at 13.4%, but the Trump people said that they were at 10%, meaning they think it is at most 10% and possibly less than that. The correlation between their claimed tariff rates and actual tariff rates is not particularly high. If you think that is reciprocal, perhaps you can look up that word and come back later.
