Foreign Travel to US Falling Fast

It actually does support what I'm saying. I think a lot of it is because travel in the U.S. has become expensive and is no longer the value it used to be.

I don't debate that Trump may have an impact, but I don't think it's as significant as lot of Democrats wants to believe. Against, if it's so bad, why are the theme parks still packed? Trust me, Universal Orlando Resort has been packed all of March, far more than it ever was for the same time period pre-pandemic.

I think with the trade war, more people will stay within their own countries for travel. I don't think that's happened yet as most of the tariffs have just happened, but I think it will.

I think the big question is will we see an increase in U.S. visitors that offset the loss of non-U.S. visitors. If that can happen, cities with big tourist economies like Orlando, Las Vegas and New York City will be okay. If that does not, that's when you will see significant loss of revenue for those cities.

While I don't agree with the scope of Trump's tariffs, I'm kind of okay with a slight economic slowdown, perhaps even a mild recession. I'll take it if it means more manufacturing coming back to the U.S., inflation long term cooling off, a decrease in gas prices and tourist oriented business (such as hotels and theme parks) have to come back to reality when it comes to pricing. In no reality should some standard (if no substandard due to lack of maintenance) Hilton Garden Inn or Holiday Inn Express off the side of an interstate cost $150-$200/night. And yet in this current environment, it does. So I look forward to getting some better travel deals.

 

Reality is it could be the opposite. Typically in recessions, international tourism goes down and domestic tourism goes up, as people stay closer to home. International tourism is a big reason why hotel prices everywhere, but especially in tourist areas, have become ridiculous. Any decently nice hotel will set you back $250-$300/night. Even the lower end Comfort Inns, Econo Lodges, Super 8's, Red Roof Inns can now easily cost $100 or more a night in non-tourist locations. I've seen Econo Lodges here in Orlando try to charge $200/night on weekends, that's pathetic.

If a recession does hit and international travel takes a hit, some of these hotels might have to finally moderate their prices back to a reasonable level. That will actually encourage more domestic tourism. I remember during 2020 and 2021 being able to get Hilton Garden Inns for $60 or $70/night. Those same hotels are now trying to charge $175-$200/night. I know you would see a hit from additional layoffs, but for most Americans who won't get laid off, the lesser prices on hotels, airlines, etc. would encourage more travel.

 

And what recent event would indicate a possible global recession is on the horizon to impact domestic and international travel? One that per the data posted by MD, only occurred very recently because as you note prices have been steadily rising for years yet it's only in the past few weeks we see a sharp decrease in travel numbers

 

I clearly said that, while I support Trump, I don't support what he's done with the tariffs. I expected tariffs and even supported them to some extent, but I expected them to be far more targeted and limited in scope. I think they are too broad and punitive. I'm actually doing something that Democrats never do to their Presidents (Democrat Presidents can do no wrong in Democrats eyes), I'm actually criticizing Trump. I think for the most part Trump's second term has been a great success so far, but I think he's wrong on the tariffs.

So due to that, I don't doubt you'll see International Travel go down to an economic slow down, even a possible recession. But I think most International Travel being lost will end up being replaced by Domestic Travel, especially if prices moderate and go down.

Heck even just regionally I'll give you an example. Vacation Home, Vrbo, Airbnb rentals on the panhandle beach and up in the NC/TN mountains have become utterly ridiculous. To the point where I have cut back days on a planned mountain trip in the fall and moved the trip to WV/VA. Now to be fair, some of that is also I still want to give NC more time to recover from Helene. But if the Vacation Home, Vrbo, Airbnb market for a mountain trip actually moderated, I would probably changed my trip back to a full 7 - 9 night trip instead of the current 6 nights I have planned. Many Americans are scaling back on travel due to the ridiculous cost. If that cost moderates, more Americans will travel and if will largely off set any loss in International Travel.

Overall, I don't give a da*n how the rest of the world views Trump. If they hate him so much, he's probably doing something right. Let Canada and Europe pay for their own military for a change. Let's see Canadians and Europeans scream when their taxes go to 70% of their income to pay for their own military and security. I support other NATO countries paying their fair share, and if they don't, I'm more than okay with the U.S. leaving NATO entirely. It might be time for the U.S. to stop being the world's policeman.

 

Unless you're wearing a MAGA hat and acting the fool, I would guess travel to Canada is not a big deal. It's always been a super friendly country and I don't think that will change because of the idiot in chief.

 

That's a naive comment. I enjoyed our great relationships with allies, it was very important during my career in the military. If they hate him so much, he's probably doing something right? That's plain foolish. I mean, Russia and NK love him, that should be alarming. Other countries hate him for good reason.

 

Cool. Since we’re doing anecdotes I have a 17-day European trip planned with my kids this summer.

 

I expect Canada would be completely fine having traveled there a lot. Heading to Victoria this summer again.

I’m probably going to get maple leaves for our backpacks when we travel to Europe this summer though. I don’t need to be harassed over the actions of someone I voted against.

 

keep an eye on the flights, prices likely dropping..

 

Already booked with miles. 27.5k each for us to get to Helsinki. Was pretty happy with that find.

 

There are two consumer Hawaiian Airlines credit cards, and some are getting both
between these and the alaska biz and personal you need to move them kids up front for real experience. those 4 put wife, son, and I up front for Auckland to Florida next November. the game is alive and well, especially double dipping the hawaiin cards. keep your eye open as low mileage awards may open up closer to your departure time

 

I have one of each card. Haven’t really found the time to get into the churning game yet. The big thing is that I haven’t been able to figure out how to get those great business class redemptions. They either don’t show up or they are exorbitantly expensive.

Prices right now are well above what I booked at (27.5k->50k there, 50k->120k return) but I’ll check periodically.

 

Not sure what airline you use or valuation of miles but on delta that would be a hell of a deal.
Taking ferry to Tallinn while you are there?

 

Alaska miles which are worth more than Delta’s.

Tallinn is the main reason we’re going to Helsinki. Really looking forward to it.

 

Awesome, shoot me an after action report later about Tallinn if you don't mind.

 

point.me for concierge service where they search and book for you. set temp passwords on your miles or get texts and transfer points to program they tell you. $ per seat well spent for those long flights. just be sure to cap your taxes when you cap miles.jmo
awardtool runs searches daily and sends alerts
look for new routes for long flights and take short hops to final
games we play..

OT - had a delta 3 million miler on flight from Boston to RSW yesterday. that's 6000 hours actually flying at 500 mph and likely double that in the tube..he got flowers and a bottle of Champaigne...

 

Nearly 200,000 fewer Europeans flew to the US in March, new data shows - The Points Guy

Europeans are joining the increasingly global cohort of travelers opting not to take trips to the U.S.

Roughly 178,000 fewer Western Europeans arrived in the U.S. by air in March compared to last year, new data from the U.S. International Trade Administration shows. That represents a 17.4% drop to 846,577 travelers.

Visitors to the U.S. from France, Germany and the U.K. — the three largest European origin countries for U.S.-bound travelers — fell 5%, 29% and 15%, respectively.