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Gators In The AP & Coaches Polls (3/10/2025) [Update at #147]

Discussion in 'Nuttin but Net' started by ThePlayer, Dec 2, 2024.

  1. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    The problem to me is, Duke, Iowa State and Houston, all built their net rankings playing in bad conferences. Houston lost to Auburn. We beat Auburn on their floor. Houston has 2 wins vs the Net top 10. Florida has 5. Yet the metrics reward Auburn for beating Houston and the metrics put houston over us in the seeding?

    It's all a mess.
     
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  2. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    I think it’s tough to know. Our data is always incomplete, and experts continually disagree. It might be that Duke is getting to much credit, but making this claim suggests that we have a way to accurately determine how much credit each team deserves. And the NCAA tournament itself isn’t that much help, as we could run it 1,000 times and never get the same result. Maybe Duke loses in the first weekend, but as our loss to Georgia shows, that alone doesn’t say much.

    I think the best you do is appear good enough to win six games. Each of the top 4 seeds have that look to most observers, including me.
     
  3. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Admittedly, the SEC was much tougher than all the other conferences this year. Still, it must be possible for worthy teams to exist outside of the SEC. In 2007, only two SEC teams finished in the top 25 of KenPom, and yet the overall #1 seed was an SEC team who indeed won it all. No teams play the exact same schedule, so comparisons among teams will always require some level of art.
     
  4. fox

    fox GC Hall of Fame

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    Could be an SEC team or 2 gets beat just because their opponent is sick of hearing how great the SEC is.
     
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  5. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    Well, I wouldn't be bummed if a couple of nameless sec teams get bounced early. :cool:
     
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  6. rserina

    rserina GC Hall of Fame

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    Two different metrics: one set that rewards you for how you played relative to your level of competition, another set for what the quality of your wins tells us about how would compete with others. On the first, a close loss to a great team is much better than a big win against a bad team. They may quantitatively correlate to the same predictive metric, but the results metric will always be better.

    The problem once you get into conference play is that the ceiling on your results metric is kind of set. Every game that Auburn wins will make them a better opponent, but their opponent a worse one. If you beat everyone, it’s fine. But no one does that. The only thing you can really do is curb stomp people, which will increase your predictive metrics (hello, Duke). The other option you have is to play an elite non-conference and roll the dice. Auburn, Houston, Bama, and Duke did. Florida and Tennessee didn’t. What you can’t do is pretend that non-conference didn’t happen.

    And just remember: before this, all we had was the NET, and before that RPI. Those were exclusively results based, so you couldn’t make up much ground at all. Now, at least there is something else. It didn’t move us up to a higher 1-seed, but we already had a 1-seed locked because our predictive metrics were better than both Bama and Tennessee.
     
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  7. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Sorry just saw this. Yeah but peeps like Isaiah Thomas, Alan Iverson were shooting guards at I think a few inches shorter than Walt. He’s 6’3 as I just checked. That’s a good several inches than some of those small shooting guards and he’s so talented. Biased but I would pick him up. But hey I dunno shiz about B-ball. Maybe he should be a little smaller so he can be one of those little guys so he can sneak under. :p:eek:

    I hope to see him play.
     
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  8. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    What I’ve been saying, even if they are talented as us, they haven’t been battle worn. When we hit them with that speed and up on the O-Boards. They not like us. ;)
     
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  9. ApexNC

    ApexNC GC Hall of Fame

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    Polls are a point in time. Seeds are on the full body of work. It'll all work out in the tourney
     
  10. paidinfull

    paidinfull GC Hall of Fame

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    Bing-bop-boom-boom-boom-bop-bam
     
  11. kyleb

    kyleb Premium Member

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    Flip side, could you imagine the talking heads if we had an all-SEC final four?
     
  12. paidinfull

    paidinfull GC Hall of Fame

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    I don’t really watch any talking head shows, but the ones on our broadcasts sure seem fine with saying the sec was head and shoulders above the other conferences this year. I don’t know if you were saying they’d be more excited or less though. I think they’d embrace an an sec final four. Would that be a first? Single conference final four?