SEC Tourney Predictions?

I definitely don’t discount Duke nor do I fear them. However, resume wise they beat up on a bunch of Quad 3 teams. If we get our OOC games held against us, their in conference games should count against them. Don’t care if they blew them out, we would have too

 

It’s true at this point, our schedule has been stronger, and whether that comes from games in or out of conference shouldn’t matter. It is also true that they have a better record than we do, so that could counteract this disparity. I do think margin of victory should also play a role - though ours is quite high as well.

We can do a detailed comparison like the one I did with Auburn yesterday. These are NET rankings:

Florida top 25 wins:

2 away
5 home
6 away
16 home

Duke top 25 wins:

2 neutral
13 away
15 neutral
23 away

Four wins a piece. The Gators probably have the top 2 wins here, and the other two are pretty close. Edge to Florida.

Florida losses:

#5 away
#12 away
#21 home
#30 away

Duke losses:

#12 neutral
#18 neutral
#22 away

Florida has the two “best” losses here, but also the worst two losses. In addition Duke has one fewer loss. Edge Duke.

To me, the resumes are fairly close. If Florida wins the SEC tourney, I’d put them above Duke regardless of how they finish.

 

Florida versus the ACC is 4-0 beating FSU away, Wake neutral, UNC for a virtual UNC home game and Virginia in the Dome.

 

Also let's use a little logic....would Duke have the same record if they played UF's conference schedule...no. Would UF have the same record if they played Duke's conference schedule...yes and probably an even better record than they currently have.

 

Well said, phidelt. SOS has to matter, but it’s just not always clear exactly how to apply this maxim. With Florida and Auburn it’s clear, because they share the same record, Auburn should be ranked ahead of Florida by virtue of their higher SOS. Maybe Florida should be ahead of Duke, but it’s not clear precisely how many games a given difference in SOS is worth.

However, this is exactly the goal of the metrics, to compare the quality of teams that played different schedules. By most of these metrics, Duke would be expected to have a better record than Florida given the same schedule. Maybe Duke wouldn’t actually have Florida’s record if they played Florida’s schedule, but Florida likely wouldn’t have Florida’s record if they played Florida’s schedule again, so this chaos must be accounted for as well.

 

If only they could have decided it on the court.

 

They should only allow top 12 teams (first 4 receiving a bye) in the tournament. Having possibility (no matter how remote) of 5 games in 5 days is ridiculous. Also will provide motivation to the bottom feeders that they have something to play for at end of regular season.

 

Going to go with a Bacon Bits win on the first one. Vandy in Game 2. Toss up on Game 3. And the Dawgs in Game 4.