MBB OGT: #5 FLORIDA at #7 Alabama -- March 5, 2025 -- 7 PM [ESPN2]

I certainly agree that Duke isn’t playing an SEC schedule, and this might inhibit our ability to accurate assess their strength. But absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence. Just because Duke isn’t competing in the SEC does not mean they couldn’t compete in the SEC. Let’s explore this a bit.

First they beat Auburn in their only meeting. In 17 games against the SEC Auburn has lost twice, and they lost once in one game against Duke. One game isn’t proof of anything, but it should count as evidence. Indeed, I’ve seen more than one Auburn fan comment that the two teams built to beat them are Florida and Duke.

And what about these trouncing of mediocre teams? Can we learn anything from them? Again I think you are absolutely right that we would get more information about Duke if they played a tougher schedule. Still I don’t think their current resume offers us zero information. E.g. A 1 pt win over the #10 team is obviously better than a 1 pt win over the #25 team, but what about a 1 pt win over #10 vs a 10 pt win over #25? Or a 10 pt loss to #10 vs a 10 pt win over #25? At some disparity, there has to be a break even point right? Identifying these break even points is exactly the task of the computer ratings systems.

You may be right that KenPom has miscalculated this point, overstating the predictive value of a big win over a mediocre team. Though I wonder what evidence would look like for this claim. My approach would be to look at the other computers. Here we find that some computers do rank Duke behind Auburn, but I don’t see any that rank Duke below Florida. If there were an obvious bias toward large wins over lowly foes, I’d expect at least some modelers to have identified it by now. But maybe I’m not seeing something. Let me know if you have some ideas that I am missing, Grateful.

 

Loved bilas’s comment in the final minutes when Clayton drove into the arc then flipped it back to Haugh who drained the three. Something like:

“What are you supposed to do about that?”

 

Congratulations UF - 26-4 WOW
UF owns the state of Barner basketball. For all the talk and bravado coming out of that state, all the Gators did was go into Auburn and Bama and whip that ass at their home courts!

 

For you Kenpom / Lunardi nerds, my assumption is a win at home against Ole Miss just about seals a #1 doesn't it? #3 at worst behind Auburn and puke? (Duke)

 

Love seeing those guys so happy. All business on the court, no fake juice. It’s nice being able to see them celebrate and truly enjoy these moments.

 

We have two distinct top-level groups to contend with: 1. Our bigs - who can match up and battle against anyone 2. Our guards, who can score and defend against anyone.
Find me a deeper, more balanced team. The only top teams we haven’t beat are Duke and Houston - i like our chances against either

 

Don't pinch me.

With the power we have, Golden better win all the rest! Just kidding he has also overperformed but he's going to have to really show veteran ability to coach this team and win either tourney. Thankfully he has a good staff.

 

If we bring our A game, I’m not sure there’s a team who can touch us. Hard for everything to click every night, but man, when we are on, WE ARE ON!

 

Ole Miss has dropped to 28 in the net, annoyingly making them a quad 2 game for us at home. This is fine, because we probably don’t need more Q1 games, but always good to have more.

I would say that beating OM, and winning a game or two in the SEC tourney should lock up the fourth #1 seed. Further, beating Ole Miss, TAMU, Bama, and Auburn would, in any rational world, move us up to one of the higher #1 seeds.


Edit for clarity: TAMU, Bama, and Auburn are the current likely opponents for Florida in the SEC tourney.

 

Just wish to add, NO MATTER WHAT, happens from here on out, including Ole Miss at home, it has been a wonderful season for me to watch this exceptional group, accomplish what they have. Just a delight to watch this group. Back Court, Front Court, Bench, Coaching.

I think UF has a great chance to make a great run in the NCAA tourney. But no matter what, I have so enjoyed watching the Gators play exceptional basketball this season.

Well done Young Men and Staff.

 

They dropped after beating Tennessee? Or am i missing something. They’re #25 on Kenpom

 

Q1 is top 30 so they are still Q1. But lose to us and Thursday they might fall back out of the top 30.

 

I am pretty sure they dropped before beating UT when they lost three in a row, and that UT win wasn’t enough to bump them back up. This highlights the flaw in the quad system, as there really isn’t much difference between the #28 and #25 teams in the nation.

 

I stand corrected. You are correct that the cutoff is 30 and not 25 for a home Q1 game. Thanks go.

 

Other than the fact the teams were shooting horribly from 3, there was no reason for them to take the 2 at that juncture. You are absolutely right.

 

It's good to be envied. Our school is envied for so many reasons. We have to stand before envy and look at it as being highly favored.

 

Hilarious that half the fans left the arena before the senior night celebration after losing to Florida.
Alabama Seniors Had to Celebrate Senior Night After Losing to Florida

The Tide will travel to Auburn to take on the top-ranked Tigers on their senior night on Saturday. Presumably they'll celebrate their seniors before the game.

 

And where is Alexis? Has he been re-activated? Mikic?

 

Nelson looked worned down.