How the Gators are about to get $crewed in the seedings

That’s a great opinion to have if people want to keep living in the past. But where is UNC right now? There are plenty of great coaches who decided to stay where they were instead of going to a “Blue Blood”.

Florida may not be a blue blood, but we do take sports seriously and can get the talent we want….especially now that NIL is in play, as I said earlier.

 

And over time NIL for SEC vs ACC won’t even be close. With the NET so important you don’t want to be in an easy league. UF a top job in the country and now with the league so tough, it is even better. Think ACC 20 years ago. Best program in the state by far, incredible recruiting, superb fan support and facilities, and plenty of money. We are a blue blood with a good coach. No reason to leave unless he just wants to.

My greater question for TG is whether or not he felt supported during the bogus accusations. If he didn’t then he could leave. If he did, then no reason to leave.

“Wes Chandler was Percy Harvin before Percy Harvin was born.”

 

Respectfully disagree. NET and NIL have completely changed things. Football/Bball not the same so the analogy doesn’t work in this case. Back in the day BB would be right. Today the SEC has way more money and plays a much tougher schedule by virtue of the league. All benefits for UF. Think prestige Big East/ACC in the 80s and 90s. BB’s world no longer exists.

And yes UF is a blue blood with a winning coach. UNC has more tradition for sure though. But we are a blue blood.

“Wes Chandler was Percy Harvin before Percy Harvin was born.”

 

UNC seems to have shifted a lot of their money over into feeding the real cash cow. I wouldn't necessarily say they're being starved out, but their basketball program is not really running the show at the moment. They certainly don't have all the advantages they had pre-NIL. It costs a whole lot more to play in todays game. Fake classes aren't cutting it anymore.

 

They had an actual invitation at that time. I doubt that ever occurs again.

 

Objectively, yes, but I think the difference is far more negligible these days. I mean, look at the success of the blue bloods. Cal left for Arky, and Pope was hardly choice 1A. Scheyer has done well at Duke, but he also inherited an elite job from the inside and kept it running. UNC hasn't done much under Davis. Self has made it out of the first weekend once in four years and is currently having his worst season at Kansas. Indiana has a grand total of 6 NCAA appearances in the last 16 years and hasn't made a final four since 2002.

It's the traditionally second- and third-tier hoops schools that have allowed elite coaches to build elite competitive programs. UConn with Calhoun and Hurley. Gonzaga with Few. Baylor with Drew. Tennessee with Pearl and Barnes. Auburn with Pearl. Bama with Oats. Zona with Lloyd. Houston with Sampson. Michigan State with Izzo. Louisville with Pitino. Nova with Wright. UVA with Bennett. Marquette with Crean, Buzz, and Shaka. The most consistently successful programs are not necessarily those with the best resources, but those with adequate resources and the right guy in position to lead it.

 

I know ppl bring up UNC but I'll add Duke. No matter the year, I would say the next 10 years Duke is going to be in the discussion of making at least the FF. Name brand is a difference maker. Sure NIL can change things but do you think UF is going to out NIL Duke? That's all Duke has is basketball and all of their resources are going into NIL whereas we have to share the pool with a ton of other sports.

 

I'm with @rserina on this. @RealGatorFan is right about Duke, but it is the exception that proves the rule.

Imagine you wrote down a list of blue bloods ten years ago, or even 5 years ago, then compared against KenPom. You'd get Duke, yay. But then you'd have to get to #14/15 range for the next one. Then #22, then #27.

The Top 25 in KenPom has maybe 3 or 4 blue bloods.

 

All I care about is the match ups. If we are a 1 then great! Who are the 8/9 seeds and who are the 4/5 seeds? If we are a 2 then who are the 7/10 seeds and who are the 2/3 seeds? What’s the path to San Antonio? Sometimes 1’s have it way harder than a 2.
Any of the teams on the 1 line don’t scare me at all. Tons of parity this year.

 

But they aren’t good simply because of the resources. If that’s all it were, then it would apply to UNC, Kansas, UK, and Indiana, too.

I mean, look at the traditional football schools that are competing at a high level right now: Auburn, Bama, Tennessee, us, A&M, Houston, Texas Tech (though to be fair, Duke and Indiana may have better football programs than Auburn, haha). There are ample resources to go around. But you need the right coach to deploy them. Most of those “football” schools aren’t blowing their cash on elite preps; they spend their money to retain players they recruit and develop and to augment their rosters with quality portal kids. Look at Evan Miyawaka’s graph of reliance on returning players and all those top tier teams (other than Duke!) are drawing heavily from returning kids they are developing, not new kids they recruited out of the prep ranks or portal. That’s a sign of coaching and evaluation, not simply throwing money around.

 

Florida is #4 in Ken Pom and #4 in NET.

So, why does Bracket Matrix rate us 6th overall and battling from behind in the race to get a #1 seed?

My guess is that it's two things.

First, Ken Pom and NET both look at offensive and defensive efficiency, so it doesn't just matter who you beat, but how badly you beat them.* Florida doesn't have a strong non-conference schedule, which means our "Quad 1" and "Quad 2" numbers aren't as strong as some of the teams we are up against. However, we beat teams by a lot, which helps us in the NET and Ken Pom ratings.

Second, there is recency bias. Houston has been rolling through a fairly easy conference schedule, losing only one game in OT. Duke is more or less the same story. Meanwhile, Tennessee just beat Alabama, and Alabama's only slip up besides that is Auburn. Meanwhile, Florida just lost to Georgia, and even though that leaves us even with Bama and above Tennessee in conference, it's dropped us below them in people's minds.

In the end, I think the 4th #1 seed will go to whichever of Florida, Alabama and Tennessee do best in the SEC Tournament. There's a chance that two of those three could get top line if Duke or Houston fall on their faces between now and then, but their schedules look too easy for that to happen.

 

What we are playing for is getting our preferred location for the tournament.

Teams with a higher seeding are supposed to be closer to home for their tournament games. The nearby sub-regionals are Lexington and Raleigh. Duke will go to Raleigh, leaving 3 spots in the Southeast up for grabs. Auburn will get one of those (Atlanta presumably). Two of Alabama, Tennessee and Florida will get the others.

As for a regional, my guess is that Auburn goes to Atlanta and Duke goes to New Jersey. That leaves Indianapolis and San Francisco for the second SEC team, depending on where the Committee prefers to send Houston. If we end up a #2 seed, we would most likely end up in Atlanta or New Jersey.

 

AU / DU are 1 and 1a. UH is #3 overall.

The 4th #1 will almost assuredly be Bama, UF, or UTk.

If Bama or Florida close out the regular season 2-0 and win a game or two in the SECC, then they could slide into a #3 or possibly even a #2 overall depending on what those current top three do. Particularly if Bama does it, as that means they beat AU

If Bama and UF both go 1-1 to finish up (a strong likelihood) - the path is there for UTk to get the last 1 seed.

 

Part of it is that there are other metrics involved that aren't as favorable. We are 5th in wins above bubble, 6th in BPI, I think 6th in strength of record (SOR). Some of it may be perception, but we are a pretty consistent 4-6 on all metrics and a lower 1/higher 2 in the brackets.

Duke and Houston are the recipients of blowing out lots of average to poor teams, but also having some nice non-conference wins. We just don't have the latter, and our Quad 1 wins really lag behind the others with comparable metrics.

It's just such a strange season. To think that a loss to a top-5 team may be the difference between a 1-seed in Indy with the first two rounds in Raleigh, and 2-seed in San Fran with the first two rounds in Rhode Island or Wichita or Milwaukee. Somebody is going to be very upset. But that's the downside of the best hoops conference in two decades--and only one regional and two pods to serve them geographically. That we may legitimately have to play 3 more top six teams in the next 11 days without any benefit to our seeding unless we beat ALL of them is insane.

 

And this is the rare case where the conference tournament may actually play a role. Since Tennessee, Bama, and Florida are all somewhat interchangeable, so the brackets themselves won't be terribly upset by last second changes, I could envision a scenario where they reward a team that makes the SEC final.

 

By the eye test we are better than Bama or Vols and deserve the last #1 seed. I watched and thought Bama outplayed the Vols on their home court despite losing. I thought we clearly outplayed Bama on their home court tonight. Oh well, a #2 seed isn't bad.