Paging all Russophobes: From @kanthan on X Short history of Europe trying to conquer Russia: ~800 years ago: Sweden attacked Russia ~400 years ago, it was Poland-Lithuania ~300 years ago, Sweden again, with UK ~200 years ago, France (Napoleon) tried it ~175 years ago, France + UK (Crimean War) ~100 years ago, Russian revolution & WW1 ~80 years ago, Hitler backed by globalists Now, NATO waging proxy war thru Ukraine And somehow Russia is the biggest threat to Europe
I am just as upset about the situation as you are. As far as I can tell, we have not paused our planning, intelligence, and targeting support, and hopefully we won’t. There also seem to be indications of a rapprochement to get the material aid unpaused, so I will hope for that, too. Zelensky may have to eat some undeserved shit, but it would be worth it. The President is hell bent on forcing both parties to negotiate an end to the war. I don’t necessarily disagree with that for reasons I’ve stated. What I disagree with categorically is focusing that pressure largely on Ukraine instead of on the disgusting party that is exclusively at fault for this war. As far as what happens next, let’s say for whatever reason the President does not turn the material aid back on and, worse, turns off some of the other support. In that case, Ukraine needs to assert its intent to keep fighting and rack up some victories in the field. They were smashing Russians under unfavorable circumstances before we were delivering our current level of support, and they need to demonstrate they can keep doing it. And Europe needs to step up as much as it can for as long as it can. At some point, this Administration will see what is obvious to most unbiased observers: Russia is the more vulnerable (as well as deserving) party to pressure. If the goal is to force a relatively just peace as soon as practicable, then the clear line of effort needs to be amplifying pain on Russia and stating in no uncertain terms that the longer this goes on, the less favorable the terms will be for Russia. Our current strategy is as at least as dumb as Biden’s with respect to Iran. You don’t get points for being nice to countries like Iran and Russia. The more you give them, the more they want. And the weaker and stupider they perceive us to be.
It’s a possibility. You start running into some Congressional resistance when it comes to not meeting treaty obligations, though. Republican majority resistance to this has been restrained so far (far more restrained than I would like), but they will start peeling off when it comes to threatening our treaty alliances. And this isn’t necessarily out of some need to do the right thing. It comes down to China as well as our own fears, honor, and interests. It’s easy to say “meh” about Ukraine for people who can’t see beyond the next terrain feature. It’s not as easy to say “meh” when asked the question, “If China invades Taiwan, do you want to fight China alone?” The UK and France don’t have to help us, and we need their fleets and aircraft. Japan and Australia, not NATO members, but they will be watching how we treat our allies in Europe, and they don’t have to help us either. And anyone who scoffs and says, “What do we need these so-called allies for?” Well, I’ve seen the wargame results with them and without them. Have you?
Your assessment of Russia is correct. This administration won’t pressure them. This president doesn’t see the world the way you do
Some republicans will bark if he fails to keep our treaty commitments, but do you seriously think they would ever do more than that? Don't make me laugh.
Not yet, they won’t. Wish I didn’t, but I agree. For some people the scales just fall off. For others, they have to be blasted off. I hope, same as you, that happens sooner rather than later.
They always will be due to their enormous advantage in natural resources and nukes. It is practically impossible to take them out. Hell, all the historical references you listed happened before the nukes…
Surprise, surprise. No at all shocked to see this in the wake of Trump/Vance’s terrible policy. https://www.reuters.com/world/china...wan-premier-2025-03-05/?utm_source=reddit.com Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Wednesday China would "firmly advance" the push for "reunification" with Taiwan while opposing external interference, and strive to work with regular Taiwanese to realize the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, despite the objection of the government in Taipei, and has ramped up its military pressure against the island in recent years, including holding several rounds of major war games. "We will firmly advance the cause of China's reunification and work with our fellow Chinese in Taiwan to realise the glorious cause of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," Li wrote in his annual work report to China's parliament. In his work report last year, Li reiterated a call for "reunification" with Taiwan, but added emphasis that it wants to "be firm" in doing so and dropped the descriptor "peaceful", which had been used in previous reports.
Trump only understands leverage in negotiations. There is no subtlety. Same way he has tried to do real estate business. He has treated our allies that way— bullying those who are dependent or weaker. He does not see common interest in Ukraine. He does not care about the Russian threat to Europe. And I doubt he cares about Taiwan. His pressure points toward Ukraine were the Russian talking points so he could bully Ukraine into a deal and so Russia will have a staring point to talk. He can’t perceive that Russia’s conventional forces are so decimated that they have to use North Koreans to fight. He hasn’t started from a strong position with our adversary— Russia— which is where he should have gone. Doubtful if he even cares if Russia sweeps through Ukraine and starts with Poland (which likely wouldn’t happen in his watch). He would not honor Article 5. Agreements don’t matter to him. In his spending cuts, he is breaching a large number leases and other contracts and forcing the contracting party to go after the government. Road for the course. Same with tariffs— he is breaching trade agreements and creating instability. Article 5 is just another agreement to break. He has legitimized Maduro by sending Grenell to meet with him, removed TPS from Venezuelans and Haitians. He has legitimized Putin’s actions by attacking the invaded. This is a sharp break from consistent US post-WW2 policy.
The war would stop if Russia retreated to their borders. I suspect if a ceasefire in place would be implemented it would change the fighting to guerrilla tactics.
