Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for the US labor market

The (R) from one of our political parties stands for Recession. It is an undeniable trend over the last 30 years that they fundamentally break the economy when they pilfer it for the wealthy.

 

" fake news" "Biden's fault" " deep state" next.....

 

Unemployment is only going to get worse. You can't radically and hastily downsize virtually the entire federal workforce and not grow the unemployment rolls. Domino-like, consumerism will drop, as the unemployed aren't at the mall or scrolling through Amazon. Mass defaults on housing and other high-ticket items are certainly possible.

 

Throw in Trump's tariffs, and we're looking at stagflation. This assumes Trump will actually go through with the tariffs this time and not give another 11th hour reprieve.

 

On a less hyperbolic note, you can't introduce mass chaos and uncertainty into the economy and expect it to react well. Just common sense, really.

 

Was I being hyperbolic? I thought I was being quite measured and logical.

Hyperbole would have mentioned something about roving Tate gangs in the streets, mass starvation, plagues, and the downfall of democracy.

 

No. My bad. Just the position that the elimination of government jobs as the sole reason seems a bit hyperbolic and ignores all the other stupid shit he's doing.

Honestly, at this point his foreign policy is an absolute disaster, especially when it comes to things businesses favor, like predictability and stability.

 

If we do have a recession soon, this time it will be an austerity-driven one unless the Republicans get in the mood to do major stimulus, hire a ton of federal workers and do make work programs. But my guess is they will be taking ques from Hoover, not FDR. But even Hoover raised taxes to attack a budget deficit, and that isnt happening.

 

Trump misery index coming soon!

 

Trump will bring back stagflation. Maybe America was great back when we experienced inflation and recession simultaneously something that economists said could never happen.

 

Someone please help me out here. Is it me or does this guy appear to be going out of his way to cause a recession? What is the end goal here? I took Dr Denslow’s ECON 1 years ago and must have missed class the day when he said tariffs and high unemployment were good things.

 

whateves.....the Q is what's it gonna be called 'cuz it's all about the m@rketing. They'll nickname it something & say it's the best thing to ever happen.

p.s. GC, please allow us to post with the word M@rketing.

relatedly, how many Trumpers does it take to screw in a light bulb?

A. None. Trump will say it is fixed & his supporters will cheer in the dark.

 

Are you saying that Trump screwed the pooch or are you saying that he crapped the bed? Or did Trump screw the pooch while crapping the bed?

 

People have been talking about a coming recession for over a year while Democrats told us the economy was great. As expected they turned on a time as soon as Trump took office, admitting the economy was crap.

The fundamental problem is total gov't spending at the local, state and federal levels

In 1910 it was 12% of national income

When Reagan took office it was ~44..5% of national income

When Reagan left office it was ~40%

Edit: How much is total spending today as a percent of nat'l income? I think it's near 50% but not confident in my data source. Will post here when I figure it out.

Additionally, Milton Friedman said the cost of complying with gov't regulations was about 20% of national income.

Spending at all levels must be slashed. Same for regulations

Nothing Trump and Elon can do to get gov't spending structurally reduced long term that won't hurt the economy short term

As usual the Democrats will fight hard against whatever helps America long term. They love socialism

On Twitter in 2021 I said Elon was the guy that could fix healthcare. Costs are insane and can be reduced by over 50% by going to a Singapore--Milton Friedman system with medical savings accounts. Cost savings could approach 9% of GDP. Democrats would fight it

Free online degrees from schools that are accredited can save big money

Ending licensure (even for doctors) would spread the wealth and be beneficial. If you haven't studied it you won't get it. Milton Friedman supported this..

 

1910. What a joke.

Since 1950 the federal budget has been 20% of the GDP and the tax collection has been 17% of GDP. We are not collecting enough taxes. Under Trump tax collection as a percent of GDP dropped every year while spending went up. Under Obama tax collection went up and spending went down as a percent of gdp every year except one.

 

unemployment up will pressure the Fed to drop interest rates. We are just starting.

My predictions in next 12 months:
— boomer aged out home sales continue and PE single family home profits up (labor pool bad for builders).
— business looking for lower interest rates will re-balance leverage.
— bankruptcy / debt restructuring uptick capital intensive companies
— medical and adjacent business up
— tech mixed results. Valuations are insane. China has nuclear option on tariffs with taking Taiwan
— booze and alcohol will be up
— AI is all the talk in board rooms. Look for massive adoption and more wage and job destruction.
— AI adjacent power generation up. Small scale nuclear and traditional NG power plants up. Existing power purchase agreements out of the money
— more foreign investments into US.
— land sales of Fed lands will move some money out of stock market.
— bank profits will be up significantly
— weaker dollar plan from Bessent
— broad market correction — valuations are a power keg
— gold 3k and Bitcoin 100K
— inflation will be 3%+ no relief. Consumer basket will suck for a long time
— tariffs cause across the board inflation and price / substitute product profit arbitrage
— personal taxes down with tax bill
— wind / solar / battery investment will plateau
— offshore oil and gas will pause. Already seeing contracts cancelled. Rig count down -60
— Onshore oil and gas rig count down -34. Will open up Alaska

 

He is running foreign policy like his buddy Kim Jung. He throws a tantrum, flirts with the enemy to get our allies to concede stuff. It works in the short run but won’t long term.

 

Presidents usually get too much credit or blame for how the economy. There is also a lag factor. As Milton Friedman pointed out, most of the credit for the Clinton economy should go to Reagan and Alan Greenspan

 

Yeah, I'm sure you and your MAGA parrots were saying this in October. Good God! Just stop already!