… After asking Todd Golden about it Tuesday nite, I wrote about it, in detail, hoping you might find it fascinating too. No. 2 #Gators vs LSU Saturday nite. Crunching (and Crushing) the Numbers - Florida Gators
That's a good and thorough description of the analytics Golden and his staff bring to the game. Like you noted, casual fans (like the ones in the game thread) considered Clayton's foul a bad one. Instead, it was a matter of playing the percentages and ended up working out heavily in UF's favor. Thanks for the write up.
It's a complex and innovative way of approaching the game but I love it. Really worked like a charm in that sequence. Next time, let's foul a not-so-good free-thrower, though. I feel like a dinosaur. The slow, dimwitted, lumbering kind.
Wow! With that analysis, I feel like some kid who just discovered girls all over again. Fascinating way to think.
Wouldn't similar analytics lead a coach to have his team foul on the floor when playing defense, 30 seconds left in the game, up by 2? If the score margin is really irrelevant to the analytics.
No one will convince me that’s a good play…. I don’t care what the math says lol! But I will confess… I dropped out of Statistics 101 after two weeks.
Yes, but there are other factors involved in that situation. You could argue that fouling is even more beneficial in that scenario since it would prevent a three pointer. If you foul, the best they can do is tie the game and you still have a possession and a chance to win it. But that assumes you would be able to rebound any missed free throws, so it depends on a rebounding advantage for your team. I think if the other team is in the single bonus shooting one on ones and the ball is in the hands of a mediocre free throw shooter, it should be a no-brainer.
If the offense were holding for the last shot, yes, but most aren’t holding for the last shot with 30 seconds when they are behind. Trickier scenario is if it is tied. That’s where they likely do hold for the last shot.
What happens to the stats when both teams use the stats? Is it like that computer, Joshua, in War Games?
Before anyone knew the word analytics… Before there was the double bonus where every non shooting foul meant a 1 and 1 Before there was a shot clock… There was Jim Valvano and the 83 Wolfpack, who rode your strategy to an NC. He was lucky, but he was also ahead of his time.
