War in Ukraine

I’m not sure where your optimism comes from. Trump has made it clear where his loyalties lie. He purports himself to be a master negotiator but before any negotiating has started he has already conceded that Ukraine must cede territory taken by Russia AND Ukraine will not be part of NATO. Since when do you start making concessions before negotiations begin? Republicans bagged on Obama for doing this - but Trump has taken this to a whole new level.

 

I’m thinking you should prepare to be highly outraged.

It’s not just the idea of “realistic concessions”. Trump is back to pushing the complete nonsense that Zelensky started the war. What possible value would there for a sitting POTUS to spout pure Russian propaganda? It makes absolutely no sense.

At this stage it would not be surprising to see the U.S. actively undermine Ukraine to get them to capitulate further to Russia, even up to and including working against the Europeans or giving up Zelensky for assassination. I do believe this is the criminality we are now facing.

 

Sorry BLING, the US, Kamala Harris and Zelensky did start the war. Russian-speakers in the Donbas were shelled with thousand of artillery rounds beginning Feb 16, 2022. On Feb 23, 2022 Kamala stated Ukraine would become a member of NATO. With 2 of Putin's 3 December 2021 red lines violated, Russia entered Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022.

Zelensky is not the legitimate president of Ukraine so Russia will not negotiate with him imo. Zelensky's term expired in May 2024.

Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. Far more likely:
1) The US will leave Europe and NATO will cease to exist
2) When the US leaves the EU will start to disintegrate
3) Nationalism and populism will be ascendent in Europe. People have had it with Brussels

Ukraine has zero chance of not giving up territory or joining NATO. These aren't bargaining chips. Why pretend they are?

Ukraine's surrender will be unconditional. If Ukraine wanted a great deal it should have made peace in March 2022. As I predicted on Twitter on March 23, 2022, there would be no ceasefire. The Biden administration wanted war to enhance the Democrat's prospects in the 2022 midterms.

Trump will play a small role at most in any negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

The US will lift the sanctions on Russia and normalize relations. At that point the EU sanctions will look ridiculous so they will be lifted as well. Putin will agree to not go after the dollar, protecting the dollar's status as a reserve currency, at least for the time Trump is in office

 

Have you heard Trump talking about Ukraine lately? We don't WANT them to leak it, we just don't give a flying F if they do.

As for our aid to Ukraine, it's absolutely critical. They have no economy and no industry, their stockpile of Soviet weapons are depleted, they'll have nothing to fight with without help aid. They're losing this war WITH our help, and you think they can hang on without? And Europe? They're a joke. Their leaders in France and Germany are about to be replaced by far right Russian sympathizers and they're deindustrializing at a rapid pace. They can't even help themselves right now and they're gonna continue to help Ukraine?

You're also wrong in saying that our only leverage is to withhold aid. Did you hear what Trump said during the latest press conference? He's calling for elections in Ukraine, so I think it's clear that he intends to replace Zelensky if he doesn't play ball. 90% of Ukraine's media was funded by us, half of the money we sent there have disappeared into the thin air, no doubt a lot into the hands of Ukrainian oligarchs. Sure, Ukraine will have to "agree" to the deal. The reason we don't really care is because no matter what deal we strike with Russia, we can get Ukraine to agree to it.

 

I desperately do not want to see it happen either and really hope it will not. I’m hoping LtGen Kellogg is a moderating voice in this Admin. However, I think we need to have a realistic understanding of how much the AFU is dependent upon the US for logistical support for maintenance and parts, as well as for resupply for munitions. That provides a significant advantage to the AFU on the battlefield. If it were to go away, the calculus in this conflict changes significantly.

 

I’m not certain where I’ve expressed optimism per se. This is not the method I would have used to bring Russia to the table. I’ve just pointed out that there’s no deal yet, so we should wait and see. I’ve also pointed out accurately the structural limitations Trump faces in trying to force a deal without the participation of the aggrieved state or other key allies. Maybe things are as bad you think and this will be as big a strategic blunder as Afghanistan in 2021. I don’t know. I do know nothing has happened yet.

 

But it sure does bolster Russian propaganda points …

 

I believe Trump is using his most effective weapon—propagating a message he wants to become reality. By telling the world Ukraine needs elections—as Russia claims because they want to control those elections—some will buy-in to the message.

 

Chickenhawks may be tearing what little hair out they have left over the prospects for peace in Europe and the restoration of a fruitful relationship with Russia.

 

How do you think Russia would be able to control elections within Ukraine if they were to occur before the conflict is over?

 

That could well be. Still, Ukraine does not have to hold elections per its constitution. Trump can advise and encourage, but he can’t make Ukraine hold elections. Moreover, he can’t make Ukraine hold elections in a manner that would please the Russians.

 

Moderating voices are being fired left and right in this administration. They set a goal and ignore the damage they cause.

 

It is still a Russian talking point. And, what about the areas in Ukraine under Russian control? Do they get to vote? Those elections would turn out like Russia’s elections.

 

LtGen Kellogg was hired by Trump specifically for this role. Kellogg was the CG Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR) and CG of the 82nd Airborne Division. He is a serious individual that understands this conflict. I'm hoping that he is being listened to.

 

Not sure how Russia could insist that they could be part of Ukrainian elections, since Russia considers them independent entities not part of Ukraine.

 

Yep, Russia wants a puppet government in Kyiv. Either by force or if they can get one elected. Ukraine had a pro Russian leader in the past. When he was removed, Putin got pissed.

 

Doesn’t mean he won’t get fired. Not when we announce that our position concedes elections now, no membership in NATO, land, reliance kn Europe. Brings to mind the Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia. Too late to walk that back. Appeasement hasn’t worked through history. It is part of the larger pattern of withdrawal of American aid, assistance and influence. And the right doesn’t see the utility of aid to Ukraine because they are disconnected from the realities of history.

 

And the other areas (outside of Donbass) under Russian control? They don’t get to vote?

 

That is precisely what I meant by “a manner that would please the Russians.” People often point out that we held elections, even a Presidential election, during our Civil War. And I point right back that we did not include the states in rebellion in those elections. Even when it came to ratifying the 13th Amendment, the former rebellious states under Union occupation (Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas) were constituted under — how shall we put it politely? — less-than-democratic means to ensure an outcome. Holding elections under the conditions faced by Ukraine might be, ironically, more democratically problematic than continuing martial law.

 

For clarity, let just go with that anything in Russia control Ukraine in the Eastern Oblasts, ie Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizha, and Kherson, along with Crimean, are considered by Russia to be independent entities and not part of Ukraine, so they would not get to vote in any Ukrainian election.