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2026 Midterms - pucker up edition

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by slocala, Feb 16, 2025.

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  1. Feb 18, 2025 at 7:58 AM #41
    slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    Truly perplexed by the positive vibes that Dems will win the House in 2026.

    Count me in the camp of its 40-45% chance for the Dems.

    Assume Trump has inherited a functioning economy that will be slightly bumpy through 2026 because persistent inflation and Fed is not reducing rates at a fast enough pace for Trump.

    - He will get a permanent extension of his 2017 tax law change. (give a 70% chance there will be a tax reduction through no tax on tips and no tax on SS.)
    - tariffs are temporary. Trump will just flip on and off switch.
    - He already won the messaging on the border.
    - Ukraine war will end, although no one in middle America will care about the terms.
    - He sort of won with Gaza if the US gets development rights.
    - the Canada and Greenland stuff is more about carving up the world. It’s a distraction.
    - his DOGE start is choppy and dominating the news. Most on the left are agreeing with reducing government waste. The process is why people are “upset”.
    - he may get a replacement for Alito or Thomas.

    These issues won’t mean anything for middle America — except for 1) job market, 2) energy prices; and 3) grocery prices.

    What will the Dems latch onto as their alternative?
    - Trump loses Taiwan?
    - inflation goes up significantly in next 2 years?
    - a black swan event in the market (valuations are insane)
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2025 at 8:05 AM
  2. Feb 18, 2025 at 9:50 AM #42
    coleg

    coleg GC Hall of Fame

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    Inflation will be a major issue, the border issue will not be solved but will be a boondoggle, Gaza and Middle East will not go away as a problem, DOGE will crash and burn- the process is corrupt and non-transparent and will lose all support, deficit and National debt increases mount. Middle America will see higher prices, an unstable market and economy due to off/on tariffs, and higher taxes. Won't go well for midterms for Pubs.
     
  3. Feb 18, 2025 at 9:55 AM #43
    CHFG8R

    CHFG8R GC Hall of Fame

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    My only issue here is the lack of acknowledgement that the D's are just useless and pretty much through as a party. They're going to have to change and rather dramatically if they want to win another election anytime soon (outside of just complete MAGA catastrophe) and I just don't see that, certainly not in time for 2026. Best they can do is just be the alternative to the dumpster fire that is MAGA. Other upside is midterm electorate and not POTUS, which will bring out a very different kind of voter.

    But, still. Current D party has nothing to offer beyond that and it's hard to see a long-term future for it in current form.
     
  4. Feb 18, 2025 at 9:57 AM #44
    92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Better idea: join the revolution.

    Why defend your own fleecing?
     
  5. Feb 18, 2025 at 10:23 AM #45
    slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    OT: Debatable if it is a revolution and who is fleecing who.
     
  6. Feb 18, 2025 at 10:26 AM #46
    slocala

    slocala VIP Member

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    Bingo. You articulated my very question. What is the Dems’ message? There is a lot of “hopium highs” upthread. I don’t see much action from the Dems. Where is their competing “Progress 2026 / 2028” Agenda?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
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