Breaking: Donny’s first retail sales report an absolute disaster

Biden's fault, next.

 

Obviously America was on an unsustainable path economically. Massive spending and huge deficits. Democrats fighting hard to prevent DOGE from fixing the problem.

 

Retail slope of sales returned to normal in 2022 and has grown at pre-covid levels after the 2-year transitory inflation. Looks like Trump's first month dipped a bit below. Should keep an eye on it as consumer sentiment is at the lows we saw under the inflation time periods. Consumers are not very optimistic right now.

 

Due to not knowing if I'll have my federal job later this year, I've cut all discretionary spending from our budget, no eating out, canceled some dr appointments and dropped some other services.

I've talked to some friends that are doing the same, not sure if Trump is 100% at fault but I think we are all tired of spending and getting garbage in return. Would rather go cheap, especially with impending layoffs. Not surprised the consumerism is taking a hit.

 

Right on cue.

 

I think a lot of people are taking a wait and see approach on everything. With the erratic nature of this administration there's really no planning. Tarrifs one day, gone the next. EOs one day, gone the next. There's no way to make a sound decision with constant uncertainty.

 

As I showed in the graph below your ridiculous post. That isnt true. What is true is that Trump promised pain and we are starting to see that.

 

A bit. I would say businesses are doing what Thomadm is doing...planning for worst case. I know we are seeing suppliers raising prices ahead of tariffs and we are cutting expenses.

 

At the same time, they seem like the kind of crew that knows how to and would pour gas in the carburetor to give the appearance of a humming economy. So, if you know where to put your money, it could be a bonanza. And if they can't? Wow, they truly are complete and utter failures.

 

Even Fed Chairman Powell stated in July 2024 that the US was on an unsustainable path. You think our massive deficits were sustainable?

 

It's not just US govt debt, US consumer debt hit 18T for the first time ever. Auto companies, banks, mortgages are all at risk right now, not just retail or services. Add in the potential tariffs and maybe big cuts to defense and govt, I'm not sure what that economy looks like, probably something we haven't seen in our lifetimes...

Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

 

So are we going to have recession, inflation, or both (stagflation)?

 

Eventually both. Inflation followed by reduced demand and layoffs resulting in a recession.

 

I think we elected the wrong person to reduce deficits. Obama and Biden reduced deficits. Trump increased them even before Covid.

Trump’s plan is to reduce the US tax inflow from rich people and reduce the outflow to poor people by less than the tax cuts. The net effect will be a bigger deficit and more consolidation of wealth. I am looking forward to another house.

 

Thanks to Ronald Reagan the Republican Party was transformed from the party of fiscal responsibility to the party of low taxes for the wealthy and the party of borrow and spend. George H.W. Bush who referred to Reagan's fiscal policy as "voodoo economics" was the last fiscally responsible Republican president and his very modest tax increase was a factor that lead to his one-term presidency. As he did during his first Trump and his Republican enablers in the House and Senate will once again explode the deficit.

 

There's no doubt that Trump will increase the deficit. They're not going to enact any significant spending cuts overall so the only way to reduce the deficit is to increase taxes. Trump is cutting taxes.

 

Trump is cutting taxes... for corporations and the wealthy.

 

Trump learned from his first term mistakes. He is trying to radically reduce spending, buteacracy and regulations, reduce corporate taxes and increase energy production.