War in Ukraine

They might. If that security guarantee comes off the table for Ukraine, then they almost certainly will.

 

Possibly. I think the target audience for those remarks is not Russia, which already understands that it will not negotiate away Crimea, but rather those people who support Ukraine but are blind to the military realities here. I don't see that particular point as an asymmetrical concession; it is simply the reality of the situation. For negotiations in the next 100 days, it's straight-up silly to think that Ukraine could take back Crimea or that Russia would willingly depart with it. A year from now it might not be so silly. That is a point I hope we are expressing behind the scenes.

 

I’m interested to see what this looks like when all is said and done. I’ll reserve any opinions and judgement until it does. However, based on what Hegseth said it truly sounds like Ukraine will cede territory to Russia and we basically are just saying that Ukraine is out of luck even though they were invaded for no reason.

 

Stunning discovery. Archaeologists have discovered that history began on Feb 24, 2022.

 

It also give Zelenskyy room to maneuver domestically on why Ukraine will not be able to get Crimea back. He and S4 know it is not militarily possible but they have people that disagree. Former Tennis Pro Alexandr Dolgopolov is this type of person on Twitter and in Ukraine that believes the AFU can take back Crimea by force. It is not realistic but it has been something Zelenskyy and S4 have been saying for the last 3 years. By having the US and NATO say that Crimea is off the table, Zelenskyy can save face by saying he does not want to concede it but has to since all the countries funding and equipping the AFU are saying it has to happen. This gives everyone a face saving measure to be able to get to a negotiating table and see if a cease fire can be worked out.

 

Based on Putin's many statements prior to that date it was a virtual certainty that he made the decision to invade Ukraine months if not years prior to February 24, 2022. What was surprising was that Ukraine didn't immediately collapse as Vlad was expecting. Putin was probably expecting Ukraine to capitulate like Czechoslovakia did in 1968 or to lose after a short and futile resistance like Hungary did in 1956.

 

If all parties want an end to the war at the earliest opportunity, then, yes, that is the case. Presently, ejecting Russia from all parts of Ukraine, including Crimea, is simply not in the realm of the possible. If Ukraine is willing to keep fighting, and the West is willing to keep supporting, then that situation might look very different six months to a year from now. But there are risks in that decision as well. First, the strategic situation might get worse, not better, for Ukraine for a number of reasons. I don't believe that is the case, but it is a risk nonetheless. Second, there is the certainty that more, perhaps many more, Ukrainian lives will be lost in the interim. Third, there is the possibility of catastrophic success, which is a fair way to characterize the complete political collapse of Russia. Personally, I remain in favor of progressive economic and military pressure on Russia until it agrees to more reasonable conditions than what we are discussing at the moment, but I also recognize the value in trying to setting up these negotiations, even if it just ends up being a pro forma affair.

 

We will agree to disagree. Russia is weak enough that they can't stand enforced sanctions for the next 5 - 10 years. The "just" nations of the world used to have control and ability and willingness to implement North Korean level sanctions to force regime change. The oligarchs aren't giving up their Swiss villas indefinitely

The ability is there, the question is the willingness

 

I hope that Ukraine tells Trump to pound sand.

If Europe doesn't want to be next, they need to stand the hell up and give Ukraine what it needs to finish Russia. They are out of manpower, logistics capabilities, offensive capabilities and money. They are literally ready to be pushed over and Trump lets them off the hook.

Traitorous behavior we all knew was coming.

We are codifying that it is OK to invade other countries and steal land.

It will come back to haunt us.

 

Pootie will be back for another bite after some time goes by.

 

It isn’t just a military matrix though. Financial isolation and seizure of assets for war crimes. Intl arrest warrants forever for anyone that can be linked to any sort of war crime, right down to plundering.

 

This, exactly

 

Equip them, release them, isolate Russia, and let Ukraine determine their own terms. They have earned that

 

We agree that it is a question of will. Right now the will is not there to ratchet up the necessary economic and military pressure. Many people want to see how negotiations would go. I think the people will be disappointed in the best result such negotiations will produce. Let's see if that does not generate the necessary will to get some of the military and economic measures we both want.

Of course, it is not just a question of military power. This is a whole-of-nation matter that includes the necessary exercise of diplomatic, economic, and informational power as well. But in terms of Russia ceding back lands it has already stolen, I would argue it is primarily a military matter. Russia has no compelling interest in giving up lands it already sits on, and Ukraine cannot liberate its lands by force. That is the inalterable context for any short-term negotiations. Russia's economy is imploding. But will it implode within 100 days and alter the balance of power? I hope so. I calculate not.

 

I would love nothing more. That is not what is going to happen. At least, not yet.

 

“See ? We expanded NATO 16 nations and 1,000km East because we knew this would happen! And we were right!”
— Neocons on 2/24/22 —

 

I don't think this is the real concern. In terms of raw military power, Russia will need to lick its wounds and implement probably 10 years' worth of military reforms (reforms that would undermine Putin's power and are, therefore, unlikely) before they are ready to play this game again.

This is the real concern. Smacking down Russia will likely deter China in the short-term and have them put off their planned invasion of Taiwan for another generation. Ironically, those on both the left and right who have not wanted to be more assertive militarily against Russia for fear of war may be setting us up for a more dangerous war.

 

People often underestimate the power behind belief in negotiations. I frequently see negotiations where the willpower of one party to pursue a more destructive path provides significant leverage even if it’s a highly unlikely to result in a favorable outcome. Hegseth has taken that off the table. It’s poor strategy but not surprising since I don’t see much negotiation experience in his background.

 

IOW Give Putin what he wants ( for now) and to Ukraine " suck it up buttercup". There will be a next time. Any peacekeepers that are sent there won't be there forever. Governments won't want to spend the $ and the public will get bored/ tired of it. Security guarantees? like the ones Ukraine was given when they gave up the nukes back in the day? lol

 

No, not like those at all. The Budapest Memorandum was a joke. Anything less than armed action codified in a treaty is a guarantee of nothing but Russia coming back for the rest later. I totally agree. It doesn't have to be NATO membership, but a couple of NATO members, including us, would need to sign a multilateral defense treaty that obligates actively coming to Ukraine's defense. If the rejoinder to that is that Russia would never agree to it, then fine. Let's keep fighting. I stand by my assessment that time is now on Ukraine's side. They can afford to be recalcitrant when it comes to their security guarantee.