War in Ukraine

Russia may be out of gas if Ukraine is now able to muster an offensive like this.

It could be a good spring for Ukraine with more jets rolling in and Russia tapped out after all the body blows and massive casualty counts

Ukrainian forces advance 5 km behind Russian defence lines in Kursk Oblast, ISW says

Ukrainian forces have launched a new series of mechanised attacks in Russia's Kursk Oblast, breaking through to a depth of 5 km behind the Russian defence line southeast of the town of Sudzha, which is currently under Ukrainian control.
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"Geolocated footage published on 6 February indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southwest of Makhnovka (southeast of Sudzha) and north and east of Cherkasskaya Konopelka (southeast of Sudzha) along the 38K-028 Sudzha-Oboyan road and seized Kolmakov (north of Cherkasskaya Konopelka) and Fanaseyevka (just southeast of Cherkasskaya Konopelka)."

Details: ISW reports that Ukrainian forces launched assaults with 30 to 50 armoured vehicles, achieving success near several villages in Kursk Oblast. ISW analysts, citing statements from Russia's Defence Ministry, suggest that Ukrainian forces launched attacks in multiple waves, deploying two mechanised battalions.

ISW, citing Russian milbloggers, says that Ukrainian forces may have captured the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Ulanok and Fanaseyevka, though geolocation footage does not yet confirm the presence of Ukrainian troops there.

 

News of the day …

Kellogg flounders, Putin says no, Russia continues its methodical grind on all fronts.

 

Russia has had to divert several thousand troops from Ukraine to Kursk to prevent Russia's humiliation at being unable to defend its own country, thus weakening the offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia chose to do this as they methodically grind their own military into dust with a thousand casualties a day. Moscow's war effort is said to be "weakened".

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/15/poli...r-kursk-offensive-us-officials-say/index.html

 

With all of those extra troops, Russia must have taken back that land around Kursk by now.

Right?

 

This sounds like a desperation move by Putin, who is likely worried that his economy won't hold out much longer.

 

I’m not sure. I have heard from people who would know better than I that we have better insight than Putin on the actual state of his economy. If true, it’s because the people with whom he has surrounded himself also don’t know or are terrified to give him news he does not want to hear. If he really is convinced he can win this thing by military means, then he will probably roll the dice on a decisive offensive late this spring before going to the table with a stronger position that keeps Ukraine from getting the security guarantees it needs. But if that fails, then Ukraine itself has no reason to go to the table; it can just play for time until Russian economic problems go critical by next winter. I would say a massive Russian offensive is its most likely course of action, but one key indicator does not line up with that: we have not seen the buildup in forces one would expect to have occurred over the winter to support such an offensive. As far as I can tell, Russia has not taken any measures to increase its manpower beyond replacing its losses (which have been high, of course). Russia could just try to keep up its current glacial pace (and maybe that is all Russia is physically capable of without being able impose air superiority), but I’ve read it would take three years just to take the full Donbas, never mind Ukraine west of the Dnieper, at this rate. Does Russia have three years? I doubt it. Kellogg and Waltz seem to be certain that Russia cannot hold on that long.

 

So everybody else besides Vladimir Putin, who is president of Russia, has absolute power in Russia and holds a doctoral degree in economics, knows more about the current state of the Russian economy than Vladimir Putin? Hmmm.. not sure I buy it. (no pun intended)

 

Well, a couple of things: first, Putin doesn’t really hold a doctorate in economics any more than Hunter Biden really has a law degree from Yale. Those who have analyzed Putin’s dissertation are only torn between whether Putin merely plagiarized it or straight-up hired someone else to write it (Dawisha, Putin’s Kleptocracy, 2014). Second, even if Putin is the Adam Smith of his day, his analysis is only going to be as good as the data he gets from his people. If they are lying to him or passing along lies from others (as we now know did happen in 2021 about Russian military readiness), then Putin could very well believe his economic position is stronger than it is. But don’t take my word for it. It’s Kellogg, Waltz, and the President who seem to believe that Putin is ill-informed on his economic situation. I assume you find them slightly more credible.

 

And Putin always tells the truth, doesn't he? His next lie will be his first one--is that it? St. Vladimir the Impaling Truthteller, eh?

Are all Trumpers this gullible? Seriously . . .

 

Putin knows his own top banker (Secretary of Finance, or whatever) has announced 9+% inflation and nearly 20% interest rates on loans (and that was last year, I believe). Just because he isn't chewing his fingernails off during speeches does not mean he isn't aware of Russia's serious financial problems or, even more absurd, that he is denying that Russia is in dire straights economically and expecting the rest of the world to believe it. He's keeping quiet, hoping for a miracle. That's the best he can do. He has totally screwed the pooch on this war from the first week, and he knows it.

 

Long time dictators tend to surround themselves with toadies who tell the dictator what he wants to hear. You get promoted by how well you suck up and telling bad news to a dictator is not very healthy.

 

I rated this post as agreed, because we never agree on this particular topic and it may be the closest we ever get to agreement. Although, I think it is more that he just doesn’t give a damn, because he won’t be with us for much longer at his age.

 

Who won’t be with us much longer? Putin or that particular minister?

 

Russian forces reduced to riding donkeys and brandishing shovels. Russian economy so close to total collapse that Putin himself will have to frequent soup lines, albeit in disguise for fear of being balconied, support for his SMO down to 67%. Thankfully, things are even worse for Trump and his NATO vassals …

Ukraine Inches Closer to Final Call-Up

 

Putin.

 

You might be right. We will see.

 

ouchie

 

You can see the effects …

 

It’s almost as if we’d be better off automatically everything Western media reports …

 

Russia continues to have some bad luck with its oil tankers; this one appears to be in Russia's "shadow fleet". Explosion in the engine room in the Baltic Sea with the tanker running aground this time. Probably not going to help Russia's failing economy.

Another loaded Russian oil tanker stricken at sea