Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

Big Short Bets

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Jan 31, 2025 at 3:54 PM.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    33,441
    12,286
    3,693
    Aug 26, 2008
    coinciding with rush of money into the market from the maga supporters.

    is this maga money betting on a big drop or smart money selling to maga money and using proceeds to place big short bets?

    Hedge funds bet billions on market crash in Trump’s America

    Hedge funds have bet billions of dollars against Donald Trump’s America amid fears of a market crash. Data from Goldman Sachs show there has been a surge in “short” bets against US stocks, meaning traders will make money when they fall in value, in a sign of growing concerns about the market.

    In January, investors have placed 10 times more bets on US stocks falling than equivalent bets that shares in leading American companies would rise, the investment bank said. It suggests many traders are sitting on huge profits from the chaos earlier this week, when shares in big tech stocks slumped following a panic over the success of rival Chinese AI DeepSeek. The increase in short bets marks a major turnaround in sentiment from November, when hedge funds piled into long bets on US stocks, predicting they would rise.

    Hedge funds ploughed billions into so-called “Trump trades” in the immediate wake of the US election in November, on expectations the new president’s tax cuts and tariff policies would boost America’s economy.

    A surge in clients giving their money to the funds in the wake of Mr Trump’s victory helped lift the amount of money managed by the industry to all-time highs of over $4.5 trillion (£3.6 trillion).
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

    2,643
    516
    2,088
    Apr 3, 2007
    Parts Unknown
    Man, trump managed to bankrupt everything in 7 days. That’s some serious power.
    King of amazing, actually.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Winner Winner x 1
  3. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    33,441
    12,286
    3,693
    Aug 26, 2008
    he's working on it, don't need to bankrupt it, just hurt it. big margins in small moves when you bet big enough. are these 10:1 short to long ratios common? how do you explain it? seems like someone sees a shitshow on the horizon from my untrained eye and maybe it's just someone smart enough to read the lea leaves and deep enough to wait on the inevitable. can you offer an analysis on the disparity? at least an amusing meme on a Friday?
     
  4. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

    2,643
    516
    2,088
    Apr 3, 2007
    Parts Unknown
    So they knew he was gonna win? I thought all of you said the betting market was BS. Now ur saying it was right all the time?
    I’m confused
     
  5. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

    30,691
    1,962
    2,218
    Apr 19, 2007
    I'm confused because hedge funds and offshore betting markets on who will win the election arent the same people
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  6. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

    2,643
    516
    2,088
    Apr 3, 2007
    Parts Unknown
    Yet Trump controlled both. Incredible, actually.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    33,441
    12,286
    3,693
    Aug 26, 2008
    did you even read the post? the short money at 10:1 rolled in in January and it appears to be to cover big gains made on the deepseek induced crash

    big volatility makes for big profits for those that know what is coming. do you think insider information is a bad word in this administration with a cabinet stocked full of wall street billionaires? seriously?

    don't know what caused the discrepancy, if someone made big profits on the crash, who, when did they bet? If only we had independent people montioring the market to make sure the hedge fund traders that now populate his cabinet aren't playing us with insider info and rigged markets. surest way to crush the market is to remove public confidence. someone threatening that public confidence might even be considered a national security risk. there are people in his room that think like that..hell djt wanted to "shoot a few in the legs" to make his point just to clear the mall

    I guess we will know who cashed in their chips to make those big profits next quarter, or will we?

    In January, investors have placed 10 times more bets on US stocks falling than equivalent bets

    It suggests many traders are sitting on huge profits from the chaos earlier this week, when shares in big tech stocks slumped
     
  8. 108

    108 Premium Member

    18,210
    1,241
    1,313
    Apr 3, 2007
    NYC
    Tariffs with our 3 biggest trade partners start tomorrow..
     
  9. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    9,465
    2,139
    3,013
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    I think he postponed till March 1
     
  10. 108

    108 Premium Member

    18,210
    1,241
    1,313
    Apr 3, 2007
    NYC
    per NYT, confirmed today that will go into effect tomorrow.
     
  11. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

    11,098
    1,393
    1,718
    Apr 8, 2007
    I heard lumber is on the list of tarriffs…. Because new houses are not expensive enough already….

    I’m actually looking forward to tarriffs, just to watch all these Donny Boy true believers have to dig deep to explain why inflation is going up again.
     
  12. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    9,465
    2,139
    3,013
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    Interesting. I just googled and there are headlines stating both dates. As per usual I guess nobody knows what's actually happening with this admin
     
  13. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 26, 2007
    I'm mostly out of stocks now. Market can crash for all I care (I expect it to) and if it does I'll go bargain hunting.
     
  14. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

    2,643
    516
    2,088
    Apr 3, 2007
    Parts Unknown
    Seems pretty easy to manipulate the market. Trumps fault.
     
  15. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    22,067
    1,835
    1,763
    Apr 8, 2007
    Although it will take a little longer than seven days it's only a matter of time. Trump will do to the economy what he did to his company although giving him credit where credit is due, he did pay himself an estimated $80 million while managing the company into bankruptcy.
    upload_2025-1-31_18-39-9.jpeg
    upload_2025-1-31_18-39-29.jpeg
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  16. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

    2,643
    516
    2,088
    Apr 3, 2007
    Parts Unknown
    Just like the banks were calling in all his notes?
     
  17. g8trdoc

    g8trdoc Premium Member

    3,615
    506
    383
    Apr 3, 2007
    You know I don’t care if Obama, Whoopi, Lebron or whoever is President I hope I’m not so shortsighted and dumb enough to wish the economy crashes to prove I’m such a better voter. It’s really really sick.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. snatchmagnet

    snatchmagnet Bring On The Bacon Premium Member

    2,643
    516
    2,088
    Apr 3, 2007
    Parts Unknown
    lol. It’s absurd. If the economy crashes right now they cheer. It’s like they don’t realize he couldn’t have accomplished such a feat by himself. Is it wrong to laugh about it?
     
  19. magnetofsnatch

    magnetofsnatch Rudy Ray Moore’s Idol Premium Member

    1,088
    292
    1,783
    Apr 10, 2020
    North Florida
    I urge you to go review hedge fund returns over the past 10 years. They aren’t great. Paying excessive fees for returns you could exceed with index funds or ETFs. Just because a “hedge fund” does something doesn’t mean it is correct or the right side of a trade.

    For those of you completely out of the market waiting for a crash (20%+ drawdown); you are either an idiot or the best market timer of all time. You can’t time the market and going “all in” or “all out” are equally stupid decisions.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  20. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

    33,441
    12,286
    3,693
    Aug 26, 2008
    You really think this shitstorm he has been throwing and/or fronting for can't destabilize the economy. Seriously? I thought you were smarter than that. Bless your heart
     
    • Friendly Friendly x 1