Rubio freezes foreign aid, including Ukraine 'Went nuclear': State Department reportedly 'shocked' as Rubio freezes foreign aid State Department officials were reportedly "shocked" as new Secretary of State Marco Rubio froze most foreign aid grants — and the order appears to include military aid to Ukraine. Rubio issued the new guidance Friday, Politico reported, freezing spending on most foreign aid grants for three months. "The order, which shocked State Department officials, appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine, the report said. Additionally, department staffers must issue stop-work orders on nearly all existing foreign assistance awards, effective immediately according to the report. A current official and two former officials told the outlet the freeze appears to pause aid to Ukraine, Jordan and Taiwan.
Ukraine launches one of its biggest drone and missile attacks of the war, damaging oil and fuel storage as well as refineries, chemical and ammunition plants in four provinces. https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/14/europe/ukraine-fires-us-british-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html
can't imagine it would be easy to get something like this back up to speed quickly Major Russian Microchip Factory Halts Production After Ukrainian Drone Strikes The Kremniy El microchip plant in Russia’s western Bryansk region halted production following one of the largest overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the country since the start of the war, local authorities and media reported Friday. “Six drones [struck Kremniy El] on the night of Jan. 24, damaging part of the production facilities and the finished products warehouse,” the plant’s press service told the state-run news agency TASS. ...................................................... The plant supplies 94% of its production to the Russian Defense Ministry, including components for the Pantsir and S-500 missile systems, as well as Kalibr cruise missiles, according to local media reports. This is not the first time the facility has been targeted by Ukrainian drones, with at least two strikes reported since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine Leopard I tank seems to have the record for surviving drone strikes at twelve. Ukrainian Leopard 1 Tank Survived A Dozen Drone Strikes: Report
Russia is grinding its way through North Korean troops in Kursk, with current casualty estimates at about 4,000 after a few months of combat. The human meat wave tactics don't work any better with Koreans than they do with Russians. North Korean forces are being slaughtered fighting for Russia, harming combat operations, intel says
Just wait till China sends an expeditionary force. After smoking one human wave, the Ukrainians are going to be hungry for more 30 minutes later.
An interesting article on North Korean troops from a former soldier. First year troops are only allowed to shoot three bullets (it's all N.K. can afford). They are brainwashed to believe they could take on the U.S. and win, even though they are using equipment from WWII. Training was massively restricted for fear of breaking equipment that could not be replaced. The troops are paid 50 won per month, which is enough to buy a serving of ice cream. The soldier was in the airborne group, but never got on an airplane, as N.K. could not afford airplanes or fuel. They couldn't afford toilet paper, either. A former soldier in North Korea's army says he was restricted to firing 3 bullets a year
Certainly. What I mean is, the best Putin can hope to achieve in negotiations right now is much less than what he can show as a real victory to his people. From his perspective, the only way to improve his negotiating position is with meaningful military victories. If he continues to fight (which is the gamble), then there is always the possibility of achieving those necessary victories in the field as well as the possibility that things only get worse for Russia while not really making any strategic gains against Ukraine. As far as the "writing on the wall," you chose an interesting metaphor, one more appropriate than you might have intended. Remember in that story the writing was clearly on the wall for the King to see, but he could not read it much less understand what it meant. The King brought in all of his wise men, and they could not interpret it either. By the time the King found someone (the prophet Daniel) who could tell him what the words portended (the end of his kingdom), it was too late and the enemy was literally at the gates. Similarly, all of the signs are there that this war has not worked out for Putin and could very well culminate in the end to his rule by one means or another. But he can’t seem to read them or understand them. Neither can the “wise men” with whom he surrounds himself. So, yeah, I think he gambles with continuing the war, he fails to achieve anything of significance militarily, and the domestic temperature grows in Russia.
Concur. But try to remember we will only see a fraction of that strategic communication and be forced to read between the lines about what might be happening outside of our perception. That is hardly satisfying, but that is the way this works.
As a serving member of the armed forces, it would not be appropriate for me to say things such as, “That is an understatement,” so I won’t do that. It will probably end, I agree. The question is not whether it ends but under what conditions, favorable to Ukraine or not. You and a couple of other people have said something to this effect, but it just isn’t wholly true. Speaking strictly in terms of economic measures, we have not maxed out all that is possible. I’m not an expert on economic warfare, but there’s a lot left on the table in terms of scope and severity. The Biden Administration just brought new measures against Russia’s ghost commercial fleet very recently, and that was hardly the last thing left on the table for hurting Russia. We have not begun to take the measures I mentioned earlier designed to drop the price of oil and really stick it to Russia. We also have not really targeted third parties who have helped Russia mitigate existing measures. So we haven’t been at the end, aren’t at the end, and — given that Russia can continuously adjust to sanctions, prompting a counter adjustment — I’m not sure you can ever get to the end. But if your actual point here is that we should also be talking about further military measures, not just economic ones, then I agree wholeheartedly. I do note that just because the President only mentioned economic measures in the informal remarks at the heart of this discussion, he also did not specifically rule out any military ones. I go right back to my original point that we will have to wait and see what he actually does before decrying it.
My only point is that contrary to Trump’s boasts of ending the war by leveraging his personality he is likely to continue the path of Biden - sanctions and hopefully military support. Much like Trumps nafta version was 95% nafta but “so much better” I would expect that here. 95% the same Ukraine policy but “so much better” lol. I could be wrong.
I like all of that. If you’ll recall, the top two things I have been recommending for years was to remove Sullivan and replace him with someone more serious as a wartime consigliere and to change the tone toward Russia away from being so acquiescent and willing to see what they do before responding. Well, those two things have happened. I would also like to add to the military measures you prescribed. First, I would like our aid to be more effects-based. For instance, instead of just giving them stuff and seeing how they use it, I want us to say for instance, “Completely destroy the Kerch Bridge. Here are the munitions you need to do it. Here is our recommended plan of action.” Second, I want a progressive series of military actions that allow us to methodically ratchet up pressure on Russia (or relieve pressure on Ukraine) as Russia fails to come to the table and negotiate reasonably. Not necessarily in this order, but I mean measures such as establishing a network of military hospitals in Eastern Europe to treat Ukrainian combat casualties; establishing a SAM umbrella in Poland and Romania that protects western Ukraine; establishing a maritime exclusion zone in the western Black Sea that protects Ukrainian shipping; establishing a no-fly zone over Ukrainian controlled territory; assuming control of Ukraine’s logistical network to free up more troops for the front line; and so on. The message I want to send is, the longer this goes on, the more we become involved, and the less you walk away from this war with, so back out now with as much face as you save.
There is nothing Trump can do, to stop the war, simply because there is nothing America behind him can do to prevent Russia from realizing its aims.
