War in Ukraine

Serious question. What would you prefer the President do right now?

 

Deliver on his boast to end the war in 24 hours would be great.

 

Citygator, you said that already. We all heard you. We all got it. I stipulated at the time it was a dumb thing to say, and we all knew it wasn’t going to happen in any case. But what about now? Presumably, you want this war over on terms favorable to Ukraine more than you want President Trumo to fail on this issue. If so, I’m right there with you, and we can cheer for him to fail in other things. If not, then you can make “Yeah, but he didn’t get it done in 24 hours!” your campaign slogan for the ‘26 midterms.

 

Everything he says is dumb. The war will eventually end. It won’t go 4 years more so I expect it to end under Trump. But it’s hard to see how he will speed it along with nothing but boasting and now…Tariffs and sanctions. Those have been in place for years.

 

That plan sounded fine to me I’m not sure what else he can do besides that. More lethal long range weapons. More aircraft. More anti drone/anti air defense. Tougher sanctions. Get rid of the shadow fleet. Incentivize or disincentivize China from supporting Russia. Sent frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. I mean, am I missing anything? Tank the price of oil somehow? All of the above?

 

I’m just worried Ukrainian will to fight is going to crash before Russia’s economy at this rate.

 

But that's not what Trump said. You are taking what Trump says, and twisting it to fit your narrative, because Trump's narrative is too stupid. Trump specifically said that he was going to put tariffs on Russian goods sold to the American people. Which is laughable. Russia is going to cave because Trump put tariffs on a few cases of vodka heading to the U.S.?

It's remarkable that deranged Trump supporters will justify something idiotic that Trump says by saying that he was really saying something else. It's bad enough that Trump lies and distorts facts; Trump doesn't need his worshippers to lie and distort facts for him. You're not helping Trump's case by calling him a liar and making up things that you think he should have said while pretending that's what he really meant.

And no, Trump cannot take the U.S. out of NATO under the current laws.

A US exit from NATO under Trump would likely trigger a legal showdown

 

Trump is not likely to control India or eastern Europe. What leverage does he have with these countries? And China? What will higher tariffs do to China? They have already set up alternate customers for their products and are shipping much fewer products to the U.S. under Biden's tariffs, which are already relatively high. Why would China have to change their attitude?

 

To nail this point down, Russian exports to the U.S. before the war totaled $30 billion. The war has reduced them to $4.6 billion. Peanuts. U.S. imports from China in 2019 (before the pandemic) were $452 billion.

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/c...19, U.S. exports to,of the U.S. – World Trade.

 

More comedy on the two North Korean soldiers captured. One refused to drop his sausage. He was starving so much that the Ukrainian troops could not persuade him to drop it, even with rifles pointed at him. The other one tried to kill himself by running full speed into a concrete pillar. After they were taken into custody, they asked to watch Korean "romance" films.

Stereotypes: Accurate.

Hungry? Check.

Fanatic? Check.

Horny? Check.

Surrendering North Korean soldier refuses to drop sausage at gunpoint

 

The Swedes have figured out that Putin has been lying. About the economy and inflation rate, mainly. They believe that Russia's shrinking economy can be seen by comparing satellite pictures before the war and more recently. They believe that Russia's inflation rate is closer to 21% than the 9.5% that Russia has claimed.

Skeptical of Russia's data, some Western officials judge its economy by looking at Moscow from space

 

Syria's New Government Cancels Russian Port Lease at Tartus

There was talk a few weeks ago that Russia would just strike a new deal with Syria’s provisional government and go back to business as usual with its Mediterranean strategy. At least we won’t have to hear that talk anymore.

 

That could be, but it isn’t what it looks like from my perspective. On current trajectory, I would bet on Ukraine being able to survive the next year better than Russia. Unfortunately, these things don’t stay on a particular momentum indefinitely. Lots of interdependent variables that are hard to measure continuously interact and change the course. If I am Russia today, though, the future looks bleak enough that getting the best deal I can soon looks like my best option. But the best deal I can get today just isn’t good enough to sell my people that this is a win and was worth it. The dilemma, though, is that the best deal I can get today might be way better or way worse than what I can get six months from now. So do I gamble? If I’m Putin, then the answer is probably yes.

 

And you are acting as if Trump would actually telegraph specific measures he will take in the future to deal with Russia. You can't take Trump's posts literal word for word on this Ukraine-Russia ordeal. He has been clear he has no desire to telegraph his ideas on this matter and he uses these posts to stir emotion and cause confusion on purpose. Trump is not going to give you the blueprint to the plan on TruthSocial. He's playing his game of negotiation.

I encourage you to recall the old axiom as it relates to Putin and his dealing now with President Trump. "Don't kid a kidder." President Trump being the kidder in this case. Don't take the kidder's posts literal word for word. He wants certain people to, but he didn't get to billionaire status by posting his business plans in advance on the internet.

 

And to get there, it seems to me, Trump needs to let Russia know that we will continue to support Ukraine (which would be a full reversal of his campaign rhetoric). He needs to let Russia know the War will not be won militarily in short order. In other words, Russia needs to have a compelling reason to sit at a table and work out an equitable resolution.

 

To your point, I believe Trump perceives the same risk and any economic measures he imposes to combat Russia will err to the side of brutality. Trump could, with the stroke of a pen, send oil prices spiraling. Some of his EO's thus far have been extremely bold and drastic. If he announces some sort of agreement with the Saudis and mandates the national defense authorization act to increase oil production, oil futures would tank immediately. I'm guessing he's giving Putin a little time to come to his senses, but he's not going to wait much more than a week or so (in my estimation).

 

Expand on that last part, if you don't mind. I don't think Putin will gamble if the writing is clearly on the wall. I don't think Trump is going to give him six months to make that decision either. I think Putin has like a week to agree to some form of substantive talks: Istanbul, Geneva, Minsk.. resisting talks will be very costly.

 

Trump became a billionaire by cheating his creditors, stiffing his suppliers, and cheating on his taxes while pretending to be successful and robbing his companies while they were going bankrupt. Then he used his fame from starring in a TV show (that no successful businessman had time to star in) to create brand recognition that he could cash in on.

How stupid would his intended audience have to be to believe any of his obvious lies? He is playing his "game" of negotiation at a kindergarten level. Putin has at least a high school education.

 

You only undermine your own credibility to criticize when you refuse to tip the cap to your opponent's successes. If he can get something positive done here, great. Hat tip. Now, about that Greenland crap. . . .

 

I think it's less about will than ability. I don't think the "will" will ever die. One of the reasons a "total victory" won't be the panacea for Russia a lot of people think. This is Palestinian level hatred now, and that's going to last for decades or perhaps even longer. Another of Putin's "big wins" scored due to this horrifically stupid decision.