War in Ukraine

Russia's demands will be placated late this year or early next year when their economy collapses. Standard procedure for whenever Russia gets in a war with an enemy that fights back (and can keep fighting for years) and there is no material support forthcoming for Russia from the U.S. If Trump increases military aid to Ukraine, Russia's collapse could occur sooner than that.

 

I can’t really see a series of events in which Trump provides military aid to Ukraine.

 

Covertly?

 

I know it doesn't match his rhetoric, but his actions often don't match his campaign rhetoric. I think his military advisors may start lobbying Trump to help Ukraine when Trump realizes that:

a) Ukraine has a good chance to win the war (Trump wants to be associated with a winner).

and

b) Aid to Ukraine might be the fastest way to end the war.

At some point in Russia's imminent economic collapse, Putin will start to look weak. He will no longer be able to maintain the facade that he is in control of the war or of Russia. Once Trump starts to lose respect for Putin as a strongman and dictator, he will probably turn on Putin.

 

cutting aid to Ukraine will only further alienate the EU and our other allies and encourage China to move on Taiwan. for those reasons, i would expect him to cut aid to Ukraine, I hope I'm proven wrong. He just had Jordan remove a strong proponent for aid from a primary committee leadership position

 

maybe this is why russia has resorted to golf carts and unprotected human assaults

Ukrainian drones and artillery destroy up to 90% of Russian equipment on Lyman front

"Up to 80-90% of the enemy's equipment is being destroyed by our drones and artillery. The enemy has yet to achieve parity, as our forces hold the advantage in both numbers and the precision of drone operations."

Details: Yurchuk said that Ukrainian troops use drones with fibre-optic communication, which ensures high precision in both control and attacks. He also mentioned that there are currently no issues with supplying the 63rd Mechanised Brigade with artillery shells and drones.

However, he pointed out that the brigade is short on personnel. Despite this, the command takes a cautious approach and avoids wasting human resources recklessly, unlike the Russians.

 

The maga/gop has been hellbent on cutting aid for Ukraine. I will believe a change in that position when I see it.

 

I think alienating our allies is part of his policy. Before taking office he has picked fights and threatened Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Denmark.

 

Anything that weakens or even splinters Nato will make Putin downright orgasmic.

 

No one with a functioning brain actually believed Trump when we was saying that "Day One" crap, did they?

Just another lie for the list.

 

What do you mean by Ukraine has a good chance to win the war"? What does winning look like in terms of returning to pre-2022 or pre-2014 borders?

 

On Feb 24, 2022 Russia finally responded to long-standing provocations, by NATO - and by a radicalized segment of Ukrainians - and commences policing operations chiefly in the areas of Donbas.

 

Yep, defining "victory" is hard because it has so many degrees between complete victory and complete defeat. Complete victory for Ukraine would be not only returning to those pre-2014 borders but also getting concrete security guarantees in one form or another (NATO membership is not the only form, of course). That degree of victory, most of us agree, is not achievable is strict military terms; it would have to come from Russian economic/political collapse, which becomes more possible with each passing day but is still not probable at the moment. Complete Russian victory at this point is even more laughable. As things stand today, Ukrainian "victory" would look like partial wins on both of its desires: the return of some land it does not currently possess, preferably along defensible terrain, and some form of security guarantee for the future. Neither of those things is acceptable to Russia at this point. Further, the partial victory that Russia has indicated it would settle for is completely unacceptable to Ukraine (and its allies), and Russia does not have the ability, nor perhaps the will, to impose those victory conditions on Ukraine. Therefore, my assessment is the fighting must continue until one party or the other is exhausted enough to compromise its position. We are just not there yet.

 

Is Russia going to collapse before or after Ukraine retakes Crimea and the Donbas ?

*chortles*

 

NATO is doing that all by itself, no help from Trump.

 

Ukrop throws like Fauci … DEI I guess …

 

China buying russian assets at firesale prices...nothing can go wrong here..talk about lighting the fuse for civil unrest, report to your new Chinese bosses comrade..

Vladimir Putin economic desperation clear as 'superpower' is 'bailing out' Russia

Chinese entrepreneurs are reportedly purchasing Russian assets amid the country's ongoing economic struggles, which has prompted fear of a 'critical revolt' in Russia. A Chinese company has expressed interest in acquiring a "loss-making" mine.

OOO Shakhta Inskaya, situated in the Novosibirsk Region, is set to be fully acquired by the Chinese firm, according to Russian news outlet glavny.tv. They report that Tatyana Silenko, a representative for the mine, confirmed: "The Chinese organization intends to buy a 100% stake in the capital [of the mine], these same Chinese partners have already found buyers for the coal that is in the longwall."

On top of that, it seems this trend of purchasing distressed assets from Russian entrepreneurs - who are said to be among a group of Russians considering 'mutiny' - is catching on, with another Chinese entity set to purchase the entirety of LLC Inskaya Mine in the Kemerovo region, which was teetering on bankruptcy, reflecting the 'turmoil' in the Russian economy which has allegedly caused Vladimir Putin to take 'drastic' action.

 

Maybe pootie can "sell" Siberia back to China, after all Russia took if from China back in the day.

 

Not Siberia. Outer Manchuria, a much smaller area (shaded in lighter red below) that does include key terrain such as the port of Vladivostok. But your larger point is accurate that Russia sits on land that used to belong to Imperial China as late at the mid-1800s, and the CCP does consider it an essential element of “national reunification.” While, for now, the CCP considers this a lower priority than, say, Taiwan, that could easily change if the CCP were to perceive an easier conquest by going north instead of east.

 

I am not sure the Chinese would really have a solid basis for invading Manchuria. The Soviets did all the heavy lifting to liberate that region from Japanese control. Which is part of the problem in Ukraine. Russians spilled blood to liberate Ukrainians from the Nazis. It's not as simple as a game of conquest.