War in Ukraine

Even Ukrainians think it’s madness. Ukrainians died, en masse, in a grand experiment to find out if NATO could defeat Russia. Spoiler alert: it couldn’t …

 

Actually there was some Russian talk of not bordering NATO but that's now also a huge loss for them due to Finland joining NATO.

 

Kursk Maps Show Ukraine's Shock New Incursions Into Russia

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, assessed late on Sunday that Kyiv had resumed offensive operations in at least three areas in Kursk and made tactical advances.

"Geolocated footage published on January 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement," the ISW said.

The think tank said Russian military bloggers had published updated battlefield maps that suggest that Kyiv's forces "also occupy Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, and Mikhaylovka (all northeast of Sudzha and southwest of Berdin) as of January 5 and reported that Ukrainian forces recently entered Novosotnitsky (just east of Berdin); and advanced in fields west of Yamskaya Step (immediately northwest of Berdin) and west of Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha and northwest of Berdin)."

Russian military bloggers have voiced concerns over Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities, which are reportedly preventing Russian forces from operating drones in Kursk. "The area is covered with some powerful electronic warfare, nothing is flying at all," wrote military blogger Sergei Kolyasnikov. The ISW said the reports indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk "are employing more effective combined arms tactics."

 

sounds like they got some new jamming toys that are taking out Russian drone capabilities and making a difference on the battlefield. this will be worth watching to see if Russia has a counter

Ukraine's drone jammers are proving decisive amid a new push on Russian soil, pro-Kremlin milbloggers say

Ukraine launched a renewed offensive in Russia's Kursk region on Sunday, where Russian pro-war bloggers say Kyiv's drone jammers have been working exceptionally well.

The "Operation Z" channel, a collection of dispatches from Russian war correspondents, wrote that the attack had focused on the Bolshesoldatsky district, to the northeast of the Ukrainian-held pocket in Kursk. "In order to break through, the Ukrainian Armed Forces covered the area with powerful electronic warfare systems, making it difficult for our UAVs to operate," wrote the Telegram channel, which has over 1.6 million subscribers.
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Sergei Kolyasnikov, another military blogger with about 498,000 subscribers, reported that about 10 Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles had entered the Bolshesoldatsky region.

"The area is covered with some powerful electronic warfare, nothing is flying at all," he wrote.

 

drone tethered with fiber optic cable to be able to operate in jammed areas

Ukraine keeps new Banshee drone on a leash to sidestep Russian jamming

 

that didn't take long. what now??

Breakaway Transnistria Warns of Electricity Collapse

The breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria could face a complete electricity blackout after Russia's decision to cut gas supplies pushed the power grid to the brink, the region's leader said on Monday. The tiny breakaway republic bordering Ukraine has been unable to provide heating and hot water to its residents since Jan. 1, when Moscow cut off gas supplies to Moldova over a financial dispute.

With temperatures dropping below 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), residents have been forced to burn firewood or rely on plug-in electric heaters.

But that surge in demand for electricity has heaped pressure onto the Soviet-era grid, which could soon buckle under the load, the region's leader Vadim Krasnoselsky said in a video address to locals.
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"If this situation continues, the [power] station may go into emergency mode. There could be some kind of technological malfunction and even a fire."
"Then we will be left without any electricity at all, then a very bad scenario will arrive," he said in a televised meeting with officials published on his Telegram channel. The area relied on Russian gas supplies to provide heating and hot water to the region of around 400,000.

 

the sheer number of sr military staff lost by Russia in this war is staggering. can't recall one where so many colonel and above have been eliminated or taken out for dereliction

Two Russian colonels assassinated in Ukraine as Kyiv launches 'counterattack' in Kursk region

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly lost at least two colonels in a missile strike by Ukraine, as Kyiv's forces launched a "counterattack" in the Kursk region.

Lt-Col. Valery Tereshchenko, head of communications for the prestigious 76th Pskov Airborne Division, was in the command centre in Lgov, Kursk region where eight high-ranking officers lost their lives. Since October 2022, Tereshchenko has played a significant role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Col. Pavel Maletsky, 39, commander of the 656th separate engineer-sapper battalion, was also in the same bunker.

22 Russian military personnel were also injured in the same attack. Although Moscow has not officially confirmed the fatalities, the Russian Officers' Ice Hockey League announced their passing "with bitterness and sorrow in our hearts."

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I don't disagree, but simply putting it out there, because up until now I can't recall Zelenskyy so categorically ceding the occupied areas to Russia as a solution to end the war. Even if that included NATO ascension for Ukraine. The thing for Russia is, perhaps it is time for them to realize that whether or not Ukraine becomes part of NATO, if they were to attempt another incursion after inking a peace deal here, it would inevitably bring an even stronger response from NATO countries than this has. If not direct involvement, a significant increase in weapons supply, upgraded ammunition. So, whether Ukraine joins NATO or they don't, the end result for Russia if they choose another incursion a few years down the line is almost (if not) the same. Essentially squabbling over formalities.

 

LOL, Finland has long been de facto NATO. Be better.

 

Couldn't you say the same about Ukraine at this point?

 

Of course, which I gather is the reason why Russia insists upon its “demilitarization.”

 

Zelenskyy said in his interview with Fridman that Trump is more popular in Ukraine than he is here.

 

Just one more thing for some of you guys to grind your teeth about. U.S. comes in at #33 …

 

I heard all of this too, listening to the podcast. Zelenskyy delivered the most brutal backhand to Biden/Harris, if there ever was one. Perhaps he was playing to Trump's ego, sure. But nothing in Zelenskyy's remarks was untrue. It's still nice to see a foreign leader as consequential as Zelenskyy put out the message that Biden/Harris:

a) are stupid
b) are weak
c) are not popular in Ukraine
d) are largely ignored by other European leaders
e) are incapable of stopping the war

Z is growin' on me.

 

Not that Trump is capable of stopping the war.
Although he could conceivably stop it by eliminating weapons and aid to Zelensky.

In other words, “You accede to Russian demands or we pull the plug.”

 

Disagree. Trump was quite effective in bringing Iran and Venezuela to their knees. Russia are not immune. In fact, he shut down their pipeline. He moved the subject II-SMA missile launcher into Poland and let us not forget:

President Trump had a ready retort to a Russian threat to shoot down any U.S. missiles in Syria: "Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart!'"

Trump tweeted that news early Wednesday and added, "You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...missiles-target-launch-sites-in-any-syria-str

 

Dying for a madman …

 

Information is starting to drip in about the Ukrainian counterattack in Kursk. This is the most informative video I’ve found so far, detailing the electronic warfare the Ukrainians used to blind Russia before smacking them in the face. Have to make some inferences here, but it seems Ukraine has been waiting for the right moment to hit back, being very judicious with its use of EW, then when it deemed the enemy was stretched enough and Ukraine had massed enough, Ukraine shut down the whole electronic spectrum in the north, keeping Russia from using any of its drones and calling for artillery fire. As far as how it’s going, Russia immediately announced it had repelled the attacks but then took down those messages. And Ukraine is the only side that seems to have captured prisoners so far, which is a pretty good metric of successful surprise. Probably going to be another week before we know how this is actually going for Ukraine.

 

The War-ington Post, er, The Washington Post argues that peace is worse than losing …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/01/06/ukraine-trump-russia-putin-zelensky-nato/