NCAA NIL Estimated Revenue and scholarships 2025

Really good article to understand where we are and get an idea of where this is all going. With the caveat that a settlement proposal was already rejected and this one may be too (or challenged), the revenue sharing gets football closer to an even playing field (or at least a knowable playing field) IF it carries with it a negotiated labor contract that limits portal transfers and outside employment income (read NIL).

I had originally presumed that schools LOVED NIL because they got to keep all revenue while foisting labor costs (players) onto their customers. However, NIL collectives directly compete with athletic departments for alumni revenue. I expect that to end with a labor contract based on revenue sharing. Main things to get right in my opinion: limit transfers (trades) to some rational contract period or by requiring the school that picks up a contract to buy out the old school, and limit outside revenue so certain schools don't go back to under the table payments to build their rosters.

On that last point I can hear folks say "but it never worked w/ the NCAA before", and they would be correct. But in that case the identified harm was tarnishing "amateurism", which was a ruse for conferences/schools to make money. Now that the money is in the open I think you have heard and will hear allegations of tampering and breach of contract lawsuits. Not saying it will be clean but people fight a lot quicker for their money than another kid's education.

Few other notes - most sports will see more "roster" spots - which should increase the number of athletes. However, I'm guessing the revenue goes heavily toward limited number of players. Nobody will pay every player $140k/year (the average revenue sharing). The bottom 50% will get less than the top 2-3 players - just like in real life (who says college doesn't teach about the real world)! Of course, all will get more than the "Preferred walk on" today or the 85th man on the roster of yesteryear. Major hiccup is the cost of sending schools across the country to compete. Sending Women's hoops from Miami to Berkeley really gonna survive? Solutions might be "Berkeley/UM spring sports day" where a charter jet takes multiple teams to compete, but the current situation is not economically viable.

 

Key in on the word "Estimates."

 

I got a chuckle out of this part..

The wildcard here are the NIL Collectives. With the advent of the proposed revenue sharing model, the NCAA has indicated that it will step up enforcement of NIL collectives so that payments to athletes are only for true NIL, and that these entities are not used as vehicles to circumvent (and exceed) the forthcoming $ 20.5 million revenue sharing cap.

 

The next domino to fall will be some QB who is good in college but not a very good draft pick that will say he needs to stay and play for College X for another 2-4 years and shouldn't be denied his ability to earn a living.

 

That is hilarious. Next from the NCAA: we are going to institute time travel.

 

I for one believe there is a lot more money changing hands.

 

They are trying to limit what players can make and that's what they got in trouble for in the first place

 

They were doing ridiculously petty crap, like telling the UCF punter he couldn't get paid for his Youtube punting clinics....true NIL. What is happening now is not NIL, its pay for play less than artfully disguised as NIL. They weren't enforcing the amateurism rules either. They were punishing honesty while turning a blind eye to actual cheating. The NCAA became a joke and still is.

 

The NIL stuff will be almost impossible to enforce even if we all know it's pay for play, just like we knew getting mom's houses, cars, and no show jobs in Tuscaloosa was cheating before NIL was allowed.

As long as they do something, anything, you can give them whatever you want. The kids signed with the collective (at least ours), make appearances and do meet and greets and signings. If they get a million for showing up to a meet and greet once or twice a year, who gets to decide that they're being overpaid and call it pay for play instead of NIL? If you want to give DJ 20 mill for showing up to your nephew's bday party, that's absurd and it's fairly obvious what the money is for, but how do you do anything about it as the NCAA? You can't. Honestly, even if they take a single picture wearing a t shirt with some logo drawn on with a sharpie, that's the only thing they do, and they get a million bucks for it, who says you can't do that? The court system says you can. I don't think the NCAA can say you can't.

 

Yep the worm has turned on the NCAA rendering them pretty much an anachronism. Why the power conferences haven't already ditched them and created their own championship events outside of Football is kind of puzzling to me.

 

Lots of moving parts.

 

Does anyone know if the players can reject this agreement?
I don't see them giving up NIL and limits on the transfer portal.

A revenue sharing plan and NIL are two separate things. Players should get a piece of the pie and still be able to collect from a 3rd party NIL deal.

 

Who are the plaintiffs in this case? They could reject the deal, but they're the ones negotiating it. The athletes, as a whole, haven't organized yet, so they don't really get a say. They'll need to formally organize and form a players union if they want to have a real say and negotiate some type of CBA. These individual cases aren't necessarily going to give the entirety of college athletes a voice.

I don't think this deal puts any restrictions on 3rd party NIL deals. Limits on the portal I think would only come into play if the athletes sign contracts as employees of the athletic departments, and then it would be dependent on their individual deals.

 

They dont have to do anything, all it takes is one and a ruling which is certain to happen.

 

I think there is an important distinction here. Many employers limit what outside work their employees can do (even after they leave a job with noncompete contracts). The NCAA got busted because they wanted to put such limits on students income, but did not want an employer/employee relationship. They got busted for wanting their cake (we control players) and eating it too (we don’t pay players) while running a money making business.

If a negotiated labor contract is put in place with this revenue sharing then there is a basis to limit both player mobility (portal) and outside income. Of course they will have to enforce circumvention of salary caps, but I am guessing that with the money being in the open, there will be a lot more reporting.

 

Making them employees is a big step towards having to say what they can do or not do. That comes with a whole other set of responsibility for the employer

 

I think athletes should be paid by the school but if they think that revenue producing athletes are going to accept the same pay as non revenue producing athletes they are crazy. Hiring all athletes and expecting one union to represent everyone is cray cray.

 

Many of these athletic programs are on life support. NIL is a death blow to sustainability in non revenue generating sports in particular. The portal is also a killer for these programs. Look at Marshall having to back out of a Bowl game, as over 20 kids and many starters had entered the portal and we’re not playing in their Bowl. Not speaking of top 30 programs with huge stadiums and big boosters. Not sustainable to pay coaches and assistant coaches millions, all the players millions and have the facility costs and other expenses to support athletic programs. Would not surprise me to see programs slowly get rid of other sports.

 

Does a softball team need a shiny stadium? Do non-revenue sport coaches need to make $500k? Yes, many non-revenue sports might go back to older fields, not shiny new uniforms every game, etc. Coach might even need a side job. Like the world before all the tv money flooded college sports.

Kids will still play because sports are fun. That is true whether it’s millions watching on tv or just family, friends and a few sports nuts in the stands. Could some scholarship sports become club sports? Sure. But the student athlete can still study and be play. Not that big a deal in the scheme of things and complies with our American system of the golden rule - he who has the gold makes the rules.