War in Ukraine

Just pointing out the hypocrisy . . .

 

The article about the new gold discovered in China had me thinking about the relative value of Ukraine's minerals at $12 trillion. The current value of all the gold ever mined in the world is about $17-18 trillion, I believe, so Ukraine's minerals are about two thirds of that. Quite a theft for Putin, if he can get away with it.

 

Russia shoots down another commerical airliner.


That's no bird strike, Look at the shrapnel damage!

Details on the flight path
Flight history for Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243

 

More info on Russia's sabotage by proxy campaign in Europe, including assassination attempts on defense industry executives. I had forgotten that in April of this year, Russia tried to hire people to plant bombs on U.S. military bases in Germany.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/us-germany-foiled-russian-assassination-plot/index.html

 

And I was pointing out the facts

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those predictions don't seem remarkably different than what you assessed before the election. You should consider that a couple of things have changed, or at least have come to light, since early November. All of them weaken Russia's bargaining position to different degrees.

1. Russia's November combined-arms offensive to take back Kursk and capture a big bag of prisoners failed spectacularly, loudly, and publicly. Lots of solid analysis, pictures, and footage out there, but the summary is this: Russia massed a huge number of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery and made (what was supposed to be) a coordinated spearhead right at the Ukrainian center of the salient, designed to cut through to Russian lines on the other side and isolate all Ukrainian forces north of the spearhead. If successful, that would have generated Russia's first significant bag of prisoners since Avdiivka last year. It was not. Accurately counting the Russian dead has been difficult as usual, but Russia could not hide the catastrophic losses in armor. Russia had great plans to label this the Second Battle of Kursk with similar decisive results to 1943 ... and they were to an extent, only Russia got the bad end of it this time.

2. The fall of Assad's regime. Russian intervention in late 2015 completely reversed the cycle of defeat for Assad and kept him in power when he was on the verge of collapse. What changed with respect to Russia's stemming the tide? It certainly was not their will, given how important their bases were to them strategically. And if it wasn't their will, then it was their ability.

3. The revelation of active insurgency in the Caucasian territories. This has been a festering sore for decades, but Russia has kept a lid on it through intimidation and empowering local strongmen. As of this summer, Russia is actively fighting an insurgency there, though they were able to keep it quiet until the last couple of weeks. When the invasion of Ukraine failed to go as planned in 2022, several of the oligarchs (some of whom are no longer with us) reportedly urged Putin to cut bait before the difficulties inspired the Muslim minorities to revolt again. Well, now they are, and we know it.

4. Most importantly, Trump has now seen the real score. Surely, you noticed the difference in Trump's tone since he has been read in on what's going on in Russia. And no question he does not, or at least no longer, believes the official Russian line about how things are going militarily or economically. Nor can we still say, "Well, that's just Jake Sullivan's overly optimistic assessment." Both Waltz and Kellogg have independently assessed the intelligence and have come to same conclusion: Russia is hurting. Russia is looking for a way out before this gets critical to the survival of Putin's regime. When Trump went out and stated the actual casualty count (much to the chagrin of the pro-Russian casualty deniers), he was saying in no uncertain terms, "We know how bad this really is for you."

All of that being the case, why do you not think Trump can negotiate a better deal for Ukraine than what you have laid out?

 

Trump's causalities numbers seem more in line with what most independent experts think.

 

Translation: completely made up.

 

Sure. Whatever floats your boat, kid.

 

^ pretty much the guiding principle of Hegemonists - just make stuff up. It doesn’t make the world any safer.

But thanks for calling me a kid!

 

Well Merry Christmas or whatever you celebrate.

 

Truth in all things including American proxy wars.

 

Deep dive on losses …

Yes, unfortunately Ukraine started off the war vastly outnumbering Russia with a claimed 1 million troops to Russia’s 250,000. How is it that Russia is now outnumbering Ukraine by such a high count? There’s only one answer, and you know what it is.

SITREP 12/21/24: Things Heat Up in Kherson, Ukraine Losses Update, and More

 

Pictured: cognitive dissonance-induced ischemic attack

 

Lee Harvey celebrates Festivus. He's probably still recovering from the "Airing of Grievances" part of the holiday.

Festivus - Wikipedia

 

Azerbaijan commercial jet likely shot down by Russian missile defense system, possibly a Pantsir, according to the U.S.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/26/asia/kazakhstan-plane-crash-questions-intl/index.html

 

Nah, nah, nah, man. That wasn’t an Azerbaijani airliner. It was 10 U.S. F35s. Russian IADS wins again!