Syria

Two weeks ago, nobody would have imagined that Assad was at risk. Iran has a disproportionate number of angry, unemployed, marginalized youth and some very wealthy enemies. Not saying it would be ez but if the iRG was defeated, the rest would crumble, and it appears that even the IRG is staggered and stretched right now

 

Jolani disbanded the militia to form a new army..right steps..

Jolani disbands Syrian rebels and orders creation of new army

Syria’s rebel groups will be disbanded and absorbed into the national army, the head of the faction which ousted Bashar al-Assad has said.

Meeting the country’s religious minority Druze community, Mohammed al-Jolani – who has started using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa – said rebels would be trained to “join the ranks of the defence ministry”.

With his interim government seeking to reassure minorities that they will be protected, Sharaa emphasised the need for unity in a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country.“Syria must remain united,” he said. “There must be a social contract between the state and all religions to guarantee social justice.”

Sharaa had previously suggested Syria’s armed groups would be dissolved and join a national army. It is likely this is intended to prevent future power struggles of the sort seen in Libya.

 

does this apply in Russia. One highly aggrieved warlord with a blood feud against a regional enemy supported by the central leadership? Reads like a cheap diem store novel...ooohh, don't forget junior warlord who warlord sr must impress..will china find a way to help chechens?

Russia on the brink of civil war as Vladimir Putin regime challenged by warlord

 

some nightime reading..drip...drip...when the guys in black with sticks quit getting paid, well. not sure the IG is going to shoot them too, especially if the IG family is suffering..

Hezbollah, Syria, missile program, nuclear power, military might..all expensive wastes of limited resources in pursuit of vanity over substance. Israel destroyed any belief that Iran is the big bad wolf. And they didn't even have to get serious about it. the people, and the leaders, are beginning to speak up. what a wasted country, like Venezuela.

Khamenei's gamble: The crumbling pillars of the Islamic Republic

This shift allowed Israel to retaliate directly against Iranian assets, including missile facilities and proxy bases. It also provided the United States and its allies with justification to increase military support for Israel. The exposure of Iran’s vulnerabilities has emboldened Arab states, with Saudi Arabia warning Tehran against further missile attacks via its proxies.

The repercussions of these missteps are being felt within Iran. The $50 billion spent on Syria alone has drawn criticism from journalists, former parliament members, and ordinary citizens. The General Prosecutor’s recent decree criminalizing criticism of Iran’s involvement in Syria underscores the regime’s fear of public dissent. With an economy crippled by sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement, Iran’s costly foreign adventures are becoming increasingly unsustainable.

“Khamenei is actually the same as Bashar Assad - a brutal dictator that has war crimes on his hands,” Sazegara told the Post. “The [political] earthquake in Syria Khamenei has tried to cover up with conspiracy theories. He says that that was a conspiracy designed by US and Zionists.”

Khamenei’s gamble on an aggressive, ideologically driven foreign policy is unraveling. The failures of Iran’s military doctrine, combined with its economic struggles and growing domestic unrest, signal a turning point for the Islamic Republic. By prioritizing its revolutionary goals over pragmatic governance, the regime has not only jeopardized its regional ambitions but also its own survival. As Khamenei faces mounting challenges at home and abroad, the cracks in the foundations of his leadership are becoming impossible to ignore.

 

and another. If this rolls, Erdogan is going to be djt's personal kingmaker in the region. Watch the money flow through Istanbul and guess which address. Just happens there is a Trump Tower in Istanbul. Emoluments are for dry wussies.

does Erdogan wear purple...something about that Nostradamus guy and someone in purple in my old addled mind...

sad top say, the HTS leader has shown more empathy towards the minority sects in Syria than either Turkey or djt..hopefully he continues to follow his words and incorporates SDF forces under security agreement along the border

The mullahs could fall. If they do, Turkey rises

Instead of the US, Israel’s “partner” in ousting Assad was Turkey. Whether there was any coordination between the two we can only speculate, but it was president Racip Erdogan that unleashed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which Turkey sponsors with Qatar, to spearhead the drive on Damascus. The future of Syria is going to be influenced by Israel and Turkey beyond all other forces. The two countries are far from friends, but both have national security interests in Syria. Until Netanyahu ordered the shattering of Syria’s military hardware last week, the country had for decades represented the greatest direct conventional threat to Israel. Courtesy of Assad, Syria was also the principal supply route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Unlike Netanyahu, Erdogan has broader designs on the Middle East, including, at least in his mind’s eye, the resurrection of the Ottoman caliphate. He has close ties with Qatar and Sunni jihadist groups in the region, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which themselves may now gravitate further towards Ankara as Iran descends: an increasing threat for Israel and many of the Arab countries as his regional power strengthens.
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While Iran looks to bring down the King, the ayatollahs have themselves just become more vulnerable. One of the major deterrents to uprising against the regime was the unspeakably bloody 14-year civil war in Syria, which cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The opposition in Iran might now become emboldened by a combination of Tehran’s weakness at the hands of Israel and the inspiration of a virtually bloodless revolt in Syria. If the incoming Trump administration frees Israel’s hands to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme in the coming months, that could become the tipping point that results in regime change in Tehran.

Like the fall of Assad, the end of the ayatollahs would be a net gain for Middle East security. But the rise of Erdogan, with his own Islamist agenda, could develop into the next major challenge for this turbulent region.

 

are there any relations b/n china and the chechen?

 

saying the right thing

Syria's new leader al-Sharaa declares "end of Iranian project"

Syria's new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has declared that the opposition's victory has 'set backIran's regional project by 40 years' while pledging that Syria will no longer serve as a platform for destabilising Arab states.
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interesting read. is he implying that israel had something to do with taking out assad

PM: Iran ‘dumbfounded’ by Israeli strikes, saw investment in proxies go ‘down the tubes’
“So, we just split that whole axis right down the middle,” he said. Iran “spent probably $30 billion in Syria, another $20 billion in Lebanon, God knows how much on Hamas. And it’s all gone down the tubes,” he said.

The Iranians now “have no supply line,” Netanyahu said, adding: “We warned Assad not to let Iran supply Hezbollah with weapons through Syria. He played dumb.”
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The prime minister addressed this past September’s pager operation which precipitated its major offensive against the Lebanon-based terror group, when thousands of pagers held by Hezbollah operatives simultaneously exploded across Lebanon, disabling many key operatives. Israel took credit for the action last month, having previously declined to comment on it.
“There were those who had misgivings about using it at all,” Netanyahu said. “But since it was time-sensitive, I pushed it through.” He called the result “a shock and awe of historic proportions” and “the greatest surgical targeting in history.”

Netanyahu feted the “improved plan, which was actually brilliant, because among other things [Israel] took over Lebanese television” to warn civilians to evacuate their homes. “In six hours, we wiped out most of the ballistic missile stockpiles Hezbollah had amassed.” The almost two-month-long operation, which included a limited ground offensive, came to a halt last month with a ceasefire agreement, after Hezbollah lost almost its entire leadership and was left with greatly diminished capabilities.