November CPI

Broke is broke, how can you be “more broke”?

 

OPEC produces for way, way less than most everyone else. Something like $15/ barrel.
If they want they can boost production and still make billions on volume and crush higher cost producers like US shale guys. They’ve done it before.

 

Easy. Being broke and unemployed.

 

And let's hope the next admin doesn't cause stagflation -- you know, the thing that is caused by big supply shocks (tariffs for example) and easy monetary policy. Could easily happen with a free-wheeling, undisciplined approach to the national economy.
I am not hearing a concrete economic plan coming from the incoming -- just "concepts". That just won't cut it.

 

Take the 70s out of your sample and recalculate that. 3% annual doesn’t look good over any extended period of time.

 

why?

I am not a macro or monetary economist, but I bet 3% annually would be far better for an economy than a 2% avg with sig variance.

fun fact. inf in the 1930s averaged -2.5%

 

Here's average inflation by POTUS, Eisenhower through Biden. The 80s increased the average with annual inflation over 4%. The 90s were between 2.6% and 2.8%, which is about where we're at now. That's 3 decades with inflation at or above our current levels.

 

I should have been clearer. My point wasn’t relative to the volatility comparison. My point was the cumulative impact of 3% vs 2% over a 10-30 year time frame is substantial.

 

why? I was the 1 who introduced the notion of volatility. You were clear imo.

 

My gut is inflation will continue to cool:

1. China is experiencing deflation.
2. CPI housing will continue to trend down
3. Much of the excess of the pandemic has dried up and supply chain issues cleared up
4. If Russia/ukraine stabilizes or winds down that is positive for energy and food price decreases

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/sto...on-is-likely-to-burst-soon-heres-why-aee88464

Of course if we go tariff crazy or blow up the deficit even more that could throw a wrench into things.

 

Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

We didn’t get consistently to 2% range until 2009.


1982
96.5
6.1%
1983
99.6
3.2%
1984
103.9
4.3%
1985
107.6
3.5%
1986
109.6
1.9%
1987
113.6
3.7%
1988
118.3
4.1%
1989
124.0
4.8%
1990
130.7
5.4%
1991
136.2
4.2%
1992
140.3
3.0%
1993
144.5
3.0%
1994
148.2
2.6%
1995
152.4
2.8%
1996
156.9
2.9%
1997
160.5
2.3%
1998
163.0
1.6%
1999
166.6
2.2%
2000
172.2
3.4%
2001
177.1
2.8%
2002
179.9
1.6%
2003
184.0
2.3%
2004
188.9
2.7%
2005
195.3
3.4%
2006
201.6
3.2%
2007
207.3
2.9%
2008
215.3
3.8%
2009
214.5
-0.4%
2010
218.1
1.6%
2011
224.9
3.2%
2012
229.6
2.1%
2013
233.0
1.5%
2014
236.7
1.6%
2015
237.0
0.1%
2016
240.0
1.3%
2017
245.1
2.1%
2018
251.1
2.4%
2019
255.7
1.8%
2020
258.8
1.2%
2021
271.0
4.7%
2022
292.7
8.0%
2023
304.7
4.1%
2024
314.4
3.2%