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  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

Syria

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Dec 2, 2024.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    While apparently nobody has been watching or paying much attention to it, islamists related rebels have now taken control of the largest city Aleppo..

    what's next for Syria?

    This really shows how weak Iran and Russia have become when they cannot keep Assad in power anymore. Curious who is funding the rebels now

    Opinion: The surprise Syrian rebel offensive could be a Mideast turning point

    The Middle East is no stranger to upheaval, but the recent surprise rebel offensive in Syria against Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sent shockwaves through the region.

    The latest developments, while initially appearing as just one more chapter in Syria’s protracted civil war, could have profound consequences far beyond Damascus. By challenging not only the Assad regime but also the interests of Iran and Russia, the rebels’ gains — they just seized most of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city —could reshape the regional balance of power in ways directly affecting the U.S. These shifts, in turn, may create a unique opportunity for Washington to pursue a grand strategy of restraint.
    ......................................................
    However, the latest rebel offensive suggests that this arrangement is no longer as secure as it once seemed. Rebel factions, long fragmented and weakened, have found renewed strength, coordination and perhaps external backing to launch a campaign that threatens Assad’s hold on key territories.

    If successful, the implications of this offensive are staggering. First, the fall of Assad’s regime would strike a devastating blow to Iran’s influence in the region. Tehran has invested heavily in Syria, seeing Assad as a linchpin in its so-called “axis of resistance” stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Losing this crucial ally would disrupt Iran’s supply lines, diminish its capacity to project power into the Levant and undermine its broader regional ambitions. In many ways, such a development would mirror the setbacks Iran has already faced at the hands of Israel. Just as Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah has constrained Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, the collapse of Assad would further blunt Tehran’s aspirations for dominance.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2024
    • Informative Informative x 3
  2. vaxcardinal

    vaxcardinal GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s just a wash and repeat society
     
  3. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Ah American foreign policy in a nutshell. "Won't it be great when X government collapses, lets pump weapons into the region" ... takes a look at the eventual winner that emerges from the chaos: "oh crap, not great, maybe the last guy wasnt so bad"
     
  4. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    This could be describing basically anyone involved in this conflict, as no one really learns anything
     
  5. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    what makes you think america is backing this group?
     
  6. Trickster

    Trickster VIP Member

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    Homo sapiens: an invasive species genetically programmed to conflict in order to survive. It has been so since the dawn of our species. For all the "good" we do, whether it be music or altruism, we might as well be apes in the forest picking fleas off one another.
     
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  7. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Peeps in the middle east killing each other: what a shock.
     
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  8. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    NCR
    Get ready for another wave of migrants fleeing Syria to Europe.
     
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  9. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    What group? I mean we have been backing some opposition groups and they are working together for the most part against the Assad government. There isnt one opposition group, its a bunch of people working in coalition under a joint command. Perhaps they take out Assad, but what are the odds that eventually the void is filled by more extreme Islamists? Like, we have Libya as an example. I knew someone deployed over there in Libya and he said we were basically arming anyone that wasn't working with the Russians there.
     
  10. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Assad is bad, but do we really want ISIS running Syria?
     
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  11. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    The unspoken thing here is that NATO powers play a part in destabilizing all these countries, throwing arms into the region, triggering mass immigration as years of sanctions, war and destruction ensue, and then you have decades of internal politics dominated by increasingly vile anti-immigration stances and policies, whether its Turkey or Europe as displaced people seek refuge. Same applies to our Latin American policies.
     
  12. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Also factor in the legacy of colonialism in both the ME and Africa. e,g, borders that did not consider tribal divisions. Europe regarded the globe as a giant game of " Risk", which it is not. eff around and find out.
     
  13. ColoradoNoVaGator

    ColoradoNoVaGator Premium Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    No offense, but this is a really stupid outlook. There are enough resources and food in the world for everyone, this isn't some kind of primal Darwinian struggle to survive, conflict exists over things that meant nothing to our prehistoric ancestors - lines on maps, global economic rivalries, nationalism etc.
     
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  15. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Are you just assuming this is ISIS? When I first saw news of this a couple of days ago, I had the distinct impression these were the American-backed rebels we have been protecting in the Eastern Syria Security Area.
     
  16. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    nope, read it in a different article. I have no idea who is sponsoring them, hence the question

    this is a name I keep seeing..edited OP

    Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) | Terrorism Backgrounders | CSIS

    Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”) traces its beginnings to the outset of the Syrian civil war and has remained a dangerous opposition force throughout the duration of the conflict. In May 2018, the group was added to the State Department’s existing designation of its predecessor, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Today, HTS can be thought of as a relatively localized Syrian terrorist organization, which retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from al-Qaeda in 2017. This backgrounder provides an overview of the history, leadership, and current strategic goals of HTS.

    Formation and Relationship with al-Qaeda
    As mentioned above, Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS’s precursor organization, was formed in Syria in 2011 as al-Qaeda’s affiliate within the opposition to the Assad regime. Nusra’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, quickly established a capable organization, which secured its own donors in the Persian Gulf, collected revenue from taxation and asset seizures in the territories under its control, became adept at conducting insurgent attacks, and attracted a growing number of fighters.[1] Jabhat al-Nusra maintained its ties to al-Qaeda even after al-Qaeda’s highly publicized split with the Islamic State, whose leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had been instrumental in Jabhat al-Nusra’s initial establishment. In late July 2016, however, al-Jolani announced the dissolution of Jabhat al-Nusra and the establishment of a new group, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. The group no longer had “external ties” with al-Qaeda, which many analysts suggested was an indication that while al-Jolani had formally severed its public relationship with al-Qaeda, the group would, in theory, continue to have a secret relationship with al-Qaeda and receive strategic and operational guidance.[2] However, al-Jolani’s announcement was undertaken without consulting Ayman al-Zawahiri, the emir of al-Qaeda, and created significant tension within the organization.[3]
     
  17. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    I dont know if they are 'ISIS,' but its a coalition of Islamists and Nationalists generally opposed to Iran/Hezbollah etc. "An enemy of my enemy is my friend" ... Ultimately, if Assad falls there will be a power struggle of some kind among those nationalists and Islamists. And you'd tend to bet on who the most ruthless of them are.
     
  18. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Damascus and the Assad clan getting nervous. looks like Iraqi groups are coming to help Assad

    Russian retreat from Syria: Chaos grips Damascus

    "The military contingent of the aggressor state, Russia, fled from Hama and evacuated to the Humaymim base. The commander of the Russian coordination staff, Gen. Aleksandr Zhuravlev, admitted that the situation had gotten out of hand for the Assad regime," Ukrainian intelligence reported on Monday.

    According to Ukrainian intelligence, the first armed riots have started in Damascus. Russian military personnel and diplomats have begun hastily and urgently leaving the capital of Syria. "The Syrian defeat. Russians also left the military base in the city of Khan Shaykhun, leaving a significant amount of weapons and military equipment there," reads the communication from the Ukrainian military intelligence, HUR.
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    Over the last 48 hours, the situation in Syria has significantly deteriorated. Rebel forces, including the Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have taken control of most of Aleppo, the second-largest city in the country, and have begun an offensive toward Hama province.

    In response to these actions, the Syrian army, supported by Russian air forces, launched counterattacks, conducting air raids on rebel positions. These attacks have resulted in numerous civilian casualties. On Monday, Reuters reported that pro-Iranian Iraqi armed groups crossed the border into Syria last night to support government forces. The fighters are headed to areas where battles are taking place between rebels and Bashar al-Assad regime troops.
     
  19. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    obama's legacy, the muslim invasion of Europe...
     
  20. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    I dont think he is the one that invaded Iraq setting off the chain of regional instability, and eventually the Arab Spring, which the west was gushing over in the moment. But whatever the case, US foreign policy has been disastrous for the world thats for sure, no matter who was president.