War in Ukraine

Too late for this policy change. This should have been done in July.

 

Putin knows he just needs to wait for Trump to yank aid for Ukraine.

 

Seems like a rather pointless gesture at this stage, if for nothing more than to widen the war before the new CIC takes over.

 

Putin doesn’t know that. Putin hopes that. Not even Trump knows what he’s going to do yet.

 

That could be. It could also be that whatever Ukraine intends to hit with those weapons has an effect none of us can foresee yet.

 

Trump is on record saying as much. Who are we kidding?

 

Look, you may end up being right, and I’ll unhappily admit it if you are. But there are lots of reasons why that might not be the case. First, it’s easy to say something when you’re campaigning and you don’t (yet) have to assess the consequences of your actions. Second, it’s easy to want something to fail when the other guy is in charge of it; when suddenly it could become your failure, the color changes. Third, there’s the matter of our allies, whom Trump needs for his stated strategic main effort of containing China; outraging them by pulling aid while they, despite being poorer, are redoubling their efforts would undermine his larger strategy. Fourth, he will soon have access to the classified material that shows what’s really going on in Russia; that will lead his advisors to conclude that Russia is the more vulnerable party, would be more responsive to pressure, and to get the quick end to the war he seeks it might be more expedient to leverage against Russia instead of Ukraine. Fifth, many of those munitions going to Ukraine are being manufactured in the swing states who voted for him and will probably determine who controls Congress in 2027.

All of those are realist concerns, not idealist ones that won’t persuade someone like Trump.

Remember our shared interest is in defeating Russia so that conquest is not re-normalized and we don’t find ourselves in a much larger generational conflict within the next 10 years. The objective is not to hope Trump fails even if it means Ukraine falls just to have political ammo against him.

 

I don’t happen to share your optimism that Trump won't eff Ukraine over.
Trump doesn't give a rats ass about anything those around him might say to dissuade him.