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An avalanche of payouts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by g8orbill, Nov 13, 2024.

  1. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    I won't spend 5 minutes doing it, regardless. She was a terrible candidate... Unwanted by primary voters and thrown to the wolves. I find her a decent person who simply... Like most on the far left... Thinks she knows best what people want (but is confused to find out that she is actually out of touch.)

    Her party set her up for this. You guys can dwell on that. I'm more worried about the damage Trump and his ilk are about to do.
     
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  2. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Proud of what? That the guy I detest and refuse to support just won by a landslide and now will push my side of the aisle further away from its core values?

    Yeah, probably NOT very proud right now.

    I have said several times in the last week that I am happy seeing the leftist, celebrity driven agenda take a resounding L all across the board on election day. I am happy that the left (if smart) are going to be forced back to the center.

    That is not however some sort of a claim of victory on my part. We all lost either way.
     
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  3. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Agree. Some of the cabinet appointments are beyond awful(Gaetz being the worst). But the Left has zero self awareness and it looks like they didn't learn a thing after last weeks beatdown.
     
  4. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    Disagree. She was a solid candidate who ran an effective campaign against headwinds that couldn't be overcome. I didn't vote for Trump. Any damage he does isn't on me. You're welcome to dwell on why your fellow "conservatives" put him back in the White House.
     
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  5. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Effective campaign?

    Effective campaigns don't get boat raced by the worst candidate imaginable while spinning her own web of fact checking fodder.

    Effective campaigns don't lose 20M votes

    Effective campaigns don't lose the entire Blue Wall.

    Effective campaigns don't waste gazillions on celebs trying to preach to middle America.

    It was the literal definition of NOT effective.
    It didn't even impact its base. In fact it appears to have turned millions off.

    But hey, it got Jimmy Kimmel to cry on live TV as he explained to middle America how they should feel according to him.

    Very effective.
     
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  6. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    This is a very simplistic look at a complex issue. Nationally, we shifted 6% to the right from 2020. Biden was very unpopular (with his internal polling reportedly showing Trump winning 400+ EVs), and Democrats were saddled with the inflation albatross in an environment where incumbent parties the world over got hammered.

    Kamala threw her time and resources into the swing states. And she overperformed in five of seven of them. Nevada's and Arizona's shifts were roughly in line with national shifts. In Georgia (2.5%), North Carolina (1.9%), Michigan (4.5%), Wisconsin (1.5%), and Pennsylvania (3%), the shifts were in most cases significantly less than 6%. In other words, she performed quite well where she campaigned.

    The problem was fighting against headwinds that made it in hindsight an unwinnable race. Maybe a Democrat who wasn't tied to the hip with Biden performs better. I doubt it, but you never know. Regardless, her campaign's effectiveness ended up saving multiple Senate and House seats in swing states.

    And while some folks love to say Trump is a terrible candidate, a lot of people showed up, voted for him, and left the rest of the ballot blank. I don't understand the appeal, but he's clearly not a terrible candidate. He's now won the presidency twice.

    As an aside, I have to laugh at the celebrity bullshit. Trump is a literal celebrity. That's how he became famous. He had celebrities speaking on his behalf. He gave Hulk Hogan a prime speaking slot at the RNC. So spare me the bullshit about celebrities. Both parties use them. The idea that "middle America" hates celebrities is just laughable.
     
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  7. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Where did I say "middle america hates celebrities"?

    I am saying they don't care what celebs think.
    And paying them gazillions of dollars was a bad strategy and ineffective.

    I should probably clarify that I dont blame Kamala for this. My guess is most politicians dont call these shots.

    The campaign run by the DNC was ineffective.
    I think Kamala as a whole is likeable from a personality standpoint.

    But beating us up with identity politics and screaming about abortion were not effective strategies.

    I know people are spinning, but with Dobbs and Trumps history, many on the left thought this was a slam dunk.
     
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  8. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    Are you saying Kamala's campaign lost by 20M votes? I don't think the numbers are final yet, but it looks to me like the popular vote difference is a fraction of that - a little under 3M (and about 2 points). Do you really consider Trump's margin of victory to constitute a "landslide," as you characterized it in your earlier post? As a comparison, Biden won in 2020 by over 7M votes (and 4.5 points).
     
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  9. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    To clarify. I am referring to the 20M democrats (give or take) that stayed home this time. An effective campaign doesnt have 20M people stay home this time.
     
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  10. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Where is this number coming from? She has already received over 73 million and will likely end around 75 million votes. You think that she should have gotten 14 million votes than any campaign ever?
     
  11. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    I gotcha. The current numbers I see reflect a difference for Harris votes versus Biden votes of about 8M right now - not 20M. I don't know how many votes are still out there, and I am not discounting that number is important either way; it reflects decreased turnout, which Democrats have to honestly evaluate. I just don't think the margins reflect anything close to what we would traditionally characterize as a "landslide" for Trump.
     
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  12. ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    Bug Tussle NC
    Yeah, I can’t understand it either since we were repeatedly told he was irrelevant and to just forget anout him because he was done.
     
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  13. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    Maybe you know different people but I don't know any Dems that thought this would be a "slam dunk" given maga voters devotion to trump.
     
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  14. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Guilty.:oops:
     
  15. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    Guilty.:oops:
     
  16. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    People were posting it here. One even saying that Dobbs was the death blow to conservative as I recall. Many said abortion would carry the day.
     
  17. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    Abortion was a very effective strategy. Unfortunately, it couldn't overcome inflation. I'm not sure how she beat anybody up with "identity politics." Trump leaned harder into "identity politics" than she did.

    I'll admit that I thought she'd win. I figured people had enough of Trump and Dobbs would be a difference maker. I underestimated the impact inflation would have and people's tolerance for Trump's stupidity and chaos. Regardless, the facts are there. She overperformed in most of the places she campaigned. What she couldn't overcome were the headwinds that caused a significant national shift to the right. (And the global headwinds that doomed incumbent parties.)

    As for the claims about paying celebrities, I've yet to see a reputable source provide any proof on that. In fact, Oprah refuted the claim. The Harris campaign paid for the costs of the town hall (production, crew, etc.), but they did not pay Oprah herself anything.
    Oprah Winfrey denies Kamala Harris rally personal payment
     
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  18. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    Slam dunk was your word.

    Sure, many thought a grifting, misogynistic convicted felon wouldn't be elected in the US but there was never any doubt that maga would turn out big for him as they don't care about those pesky legal issues. Always was gonna be close.
     
  19. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    You are free to do the searches. But when Dobbs went down people here were saying it sealed the election. Slam dunk was my interpretation of what they were saying.
     
  20. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    No Evidence Harris Campaign Paid for Celebrity Endorsements - FactCheck.org