What really happened with Biden's decision to drop out

Somewhat ironic since it was James Carville who 32 years ago in reference to Bill Clinton's campaign made the statement that "It's the economy, stupid". He was right back then and if he was more objective this time he would have seen the obvious. Enough voters rationalized that since prices are well over 20% than they were four years and Biden was in office during the last four years the high prices must have been Joe Biden's fault. One criticism of Harris and the Dems is that they did a poor jobs of speaking to working class voters without a college degree and while that criticism may have some validity those voters were also hit much harder by inflation than more educated higher income voters.

 

Working class voters show up when times are tough. You don’t need a college degree to see what is happening.

 

Times were tough in 2020, started improving as COVID faded through ‘21 and in 2022 inflation was bad as the U.S. economy kicked back into high gear while China was still messing up supply chains. Not seeing it now. Real wages are up. Restaurants are always packed. GDP up. Stocks up. There really isn’t a metric that supports pessimism about the economy.

In fact, the only downside (economically) are the policies Trump and Musk propose! Slashing federal budget is negative to GDP and could even see political instability. Mass deportations are inflationary and negative to GDP. Tariffs are inflationary and negative to GDP. Big companies of course love the idea of “tax cuts”, which is the one thing that would be stimulative if not for the possibility of the negatives overwhelming those cuts (lower tax rates on a lower amount of economic activity isn’t really a good thing overall).

 

2024 dems campaign in a nutshell:

Dems to America: "You're too stupid to see how great the economy is!"

America to Dems: "you're too stupid to be trusted with the economy and world security. Buh bye!"

 

They used to be a huge Pub voting block, but times have been changing... The Trump Pubs are getting more AA men and Latino voters to join their Constitutional Populist Party. The religious groups seem to be less block/monolithic and mot hit-and-miss. The Catholics are different... and too many subsets of religious groups. For instance, the Pubs will not do well with Southern Baptists.