Congressional election results here please

2008 was a real wave election. 2024 was not at least by the numbers.
Obama beat McCain by 7% in the popular vote and 365-173 in the EC; Trump's margin over Harris is around 2% in the popular vote and 312 to 226 in the EC.
When all the votes are counted the Republicans will have a 53 - 47 Senate majority. In 2008 the Democrats ended up with 60 - 40 margin in the Senate if Bernie Sanders is counted as a D even if he is not, the margin was still 59-40.
When all the votes are counted the Republicans will end up with around 220 seats in the House. In 2008 the Democrats ended up with 257 seats.

By the way remember that two years after their 2008 wave election the Democrats lost over 60 House in a real Red Wave elections. The same could very well happen to the R's two years from now.

 

I'm going out on a limb and sawing it off with my final US House prediction:

Final Prediction:

Republicans 222
Democrats 213

The republicans have a 219-210 lead in called seats.

The seats uncalled are 5 in California, par for the effing California course, and 1 in Alaska, 6 total:

Uncalled Seats:

CA 9 Incumbent democrat is leading
CA 13 Incumbent republican is leading
CA 21 Incumbent democrat is leading
CA 45 Incumbent republican is leading
CA 47 Incumbent democrat is leading
Alaska Challenger republican is leading

I give Alaska a pass dealing with top 4 ranked choice voting, but the republican will flip the Alaska seat back to red where it has historically been. The good news, it looks like top 4 ranked choice voting is being repealed along with Alaska closing their primaries.

In California, the uncalled races with incumbents will hold their seats:

Republicans 219 + 3 = 222
Democrats 210 + 3 = 213

There will be a pickup of +2 for the republicans in the US House. The current House is 220 republicans and 215 democrats.

Limb has been sawed off.

 

Back in 2008, there were quite a few more Democrat than Republican voters. The GOP may have finally gained a slight edge in that department. To me, the best measure of how a party is doing in elections is how they turn out to vote. In 2008, it's fair to say Dems outnumbered GOP by a large margin, but they also showed up to vote in large margins. In 2024, the GOP may have held a minuscule edge in registration advantage and they showed up to vote in large margins. This will make it more difficult for Dems to mount a blue wave in 2026. Not impossible, by any stretch, but much harder to do now with more voters identifying Republican.

And while a divided government has trended for the past few decades, we cannot forget that the last time Dems controlled the House, they impeached the man we just elected twice. We do not know how long that stench will remain and of course, we have no idea what the political climate will look like in 2026. I suspect many of the old norms and playbook will no longer apply in 2026 as digital media expands and the MSM is rendered more and more obsolete. Anything is possible.. it's just not as easy for the Dems to mount a huge wave now. Their prospects in the Senate look grim.

 

Funny, considering 2 out of 3 former/current military voted for Trump.

 

Voters not only wanted Trump to be president again, but they wanted to give him majorities in Congress to execute his plan. What is the future of DEI and wokeism? It appears the Dems have already admitted those are not things they're going to pursue as hot and heavy as before. Time will tell.

 

Although those issues undoubtedly hurt Harris and the Democrats it wasn't DEI and wokeism that were responsible for Trump's victory it was the economy. Speaking hypothetically if everything else was equal and the rate of inflation never exceeded 3% during Biden's term the Democratic candidate would have been elected even with Biden's late withdrawal.

 

Oh, NOW the dems care about the military!

 

Then why was Biden replaced if there was an expectation for a blue tsunami? You're funny.

 

CNN just called it for Republicans

 

***Update on my House results prediction***

Currently, Decision Desk HQ has it republicans 220 and democrats 213.

The last 2 seat to be called are in California, one I'm comfortable with as it has been a steady 2,000 vote lead and on the other, I'm not as it is a virtual tie:

CA 13 - 86% in.

John Duarte/Republican Incumbent: 90,906 - 50.6%
Adam Gray/Democrat: 88,902 - 49.4%
Difference: 2,004

CA 45 - 93% in.

Michelle Steel/Republican Incumbent: 152,415 - 50%
Derek Tran/Democrat - 152,357 - 50%
Difference: 58

We may not know who wins this seat for a long time. It is headed to a recount and then likely to the courts afterwards. I do hope the winner somehow gets settled before January 3, 2025, when the new congress gets sworn in. CA 45 is in Los Angeles so there is no telling how this will turn out or who has the deep pockets to pay for a result. With 93% reporting, there could be a bidding war going on.

I'm comfortable with the thought that CA 13 will remain in republican hands sooner than later. This will move the balance in the House to 221 republicans and 213 democrats.

Republicans have to retain CA 45 for my prediction of 222-213 to be realized. If I only knew where to send my bidding war contribution for Michelle Steel......

 

Is this the equivalent of Nebraska saying remember when we were good or the equivalent of UF saying wait till next year?

 

I was trying to make two points. Not taking anything away from Trump and the Republicans, they did have a significant victory in the recent election it was no where close to Obama's victory in 2008. Obama's margin in both the popular vote and the EC vote was considerably higher than Trump's in 2024. Keep in mind that Trump's margin of victory in the popular vote was around 2%, lower than George W. Bush's in 2004. Also remember that after W won in 2004, Karl Rove who managed W's campaign proclaimed a permanent Republican majority. Two years later the Republicans lost their majorities in both the House and Senate, the former by a significant margin and two years later the also presidency by a significant margin. One of the reasons the Republicans did do poorly in 2006 was because Bush tried to overreach proposing to private Social Security, not unlike what Trump is trying to do. Also remember that two years after Obama won in 2008 the Republicans picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.