Senate election results - please post here

I watched this crapola play out in the 2022 governor's race between Hobbs and Lake:

Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs: Arizona Governor Midterm Election 2022 Live Results

Lake will never make it into recount territory or win the election.

The total will get down to somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 after Gallego started out with a huge lead. Lake will come up short.

This senate election just like the governor's race will never make sense. How a republican county can vote for democrats is beyond reason and especially so in 2024 when Maricopa County where the crapola is going on turned out a Trump victory and then decided to vote for the democrat instead of the person who Trump endorsed. Gallego is a ball and chain for Arizona in light of the presidential result.

Just me, until the democrats who count the votes in Maricopa are thrown out on their asses, nothing in Maricopa will change. I compare it to the rat's nest like Florida used to have in Broward and Palm Beach counties before Governor Rick Scott cleaned those cheaters out under threat of putting them in prison after producing the evidence of their cheating. They instead chose to resign in lieu of going to prison. Of course. this won't happen in Arizona where the majority republicans are ruled by the minority democrats.

 

In the event of a recount, is it a different body that supervises it? What's the threshold for a recount? 0.5%?

 

Lake is just an exceptionally unelectable individual. There is nothing like-able about her at all. Honestly it’s amazing it’s even this close.

 

No, the democrat has not. Bob Casey is an election-denier and a threat to democracy. If McCormick doesn't stand his ground, our democracy will be forever lost.

 

While I think that Casey's chances are extremely slim and the election has been called for McCormick there are still enough provisional and uncounted ballots that could theoretically make a difference. Real election deniers like Donald Trump following the 2020 election and Kari Lake following the 2022 election for governor coming immediately to mind denied that they had lost long after the vote counts in their elections had been completed and still have not conceded. Neither of them ever conceded. If Casey loses he will concede. Given the closeness of the vote count that may not happen until after a recount but he will concede.

I'm willing to make a wager. If Casey concedes you have to refrain from posting to this board for 30 days. If he loses and absolutely refuses to concede following the completed vote count, including a recount if he demands one I will refrain from posting for 30 days.

 

No. Casey is an election denier.

The reason for not conceding is Casey has a top dem lawyer, Marc Elias, instituting lawfare to try to steal the seat McCormick has won. Current result which is outside of the .5% recount margin:

McCormick - 3,368,929 - 49.02%
Casey Jr. - 3,327,794 - 48.42%
Difference - 41,135 - .60%

Philadelphia Elections say they have 15,000 to 20,000 provisional ballots that came in deficient for being counted under Pennsylvania law that they now want to count. Nobody has divulged how many of these types of provisional ballots are held and not counted throughout all of the counties.

McCormick has filed a lawsuit to keep these ballots in Philadelphia from being counted and if counted be counted in the presence of republican poll watchers.

This could go to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and then the SCOTUS where they will likely rule that judges can't override the legislature in establishing election standards.

Even if the deficient Philadelphia provisional ballots get counted into the totals, I don't see how all of the other counties can't do the same. If Philadelphia alone gets counted, it's not enough to overcome McCormick's 41,135 vote lead, but it might reduce the difference to .50% or less which would require a recount. This is where Marc Elias would come in to try to steal an election already won by the republicans.

Casey Jr. wants to see the military ballots counted too, but those likely favor McCormick so have at it. Thank you.

In the end, McCormick will be declared the winner as has already been done by the AP and Fox News. There just aren't enough votes, legal or illegal left for Casey, Jr. to win. Oh, and McCormick claimed the win on Thursday when the AP and Fox News called the race for him.

To hell with Casey Jr. and the DNC. We are witnessing election denialism is perfectly fine so long as it is the democrats doing the denying.

 

Repeating the same proposal I made to @okeechobee. If Casey absolutely refuses to concede after all votes have been counted including a recount if he demands one and any pending lawsuits have been resolved, I refrain from posting to this board for 30 days. If Casey does concede you agree not to post for 30 days. Do we have a deal?

 

As @ETGator1 has laid out, mathematically, it's impossible for Casey to come out ahead, but the crux is that Casey is attempting to override election law in the state. That's what makes him an election denier. He's attempting to change the laws after the fact, but even if successful, he's too far behind for it to matter.

 

Why should I make a deal like that. Casey Jr. doesn't have to ever concede or not concede. It's just a matter of time before McCormick is fully recognized at republican pick up #4. I'm still holding out a sliver of hope for Lake to catch a break in her election as well.

I will make you a deal. If Casey Jr. wins, I'll leave the board for 30 days. If McCormick wins, you have to leave for 30 days.

It doesn't matter so don't accept. Both offers are dumb. Just do your thing.

 

Mathematically speaking, Lake's odds are a bit higher this morning than they were yesterday morning. If we get a big chunk of Pima in today, that will tell us a lot. If she bucks the margins in the Pima vote again, her odds rise more. With the way they count the vote in Arizona, anything is possible. Her odds are simply lower than Gallego's right now due to his lead, but his lead was 120,000.. it's now a quarter of that. She needs fewer than 53% of the remaining vote to win. It's certainly possible, but we don't have enough clear info on which precincts are still outstanding to know how possible it is. The trend is clearly in her favor. In fact, if she cuts into his margin at the clip she has been the past couple of days, she will catch him. A big 'if' though.

 

Kari Lake and MAGA aren't getting fair chances in Arizona and Lake particularly in the last two elections, governor and senator. I'll lay it out clearly for all to see and understand:

1. John McCain animosity towards Donald Trump and MAGA. Here is McCain thumbing down the effort to repeal ObamaCare:

Thumb Down, McCain Votes No On 'Skinny Repeal'

It's safe to say the McCain family despises Donald Trump and MAGA.

2. Jeff Flake, ex-republican senator and ambassador to Turkey endorsed Kamala Harris along with a boatload of other republican officials in Arizona:

Jeff Flake says he supports Harris because he is confident she will accept election results

“We have a lot of Republicans who believe in limited government, economic freedom, individual responsibility, strong American leadership abroad,” Flake said as he glanced at the supporters standing behind him, and they all cheered in agreement.

Here’s why Jeff Flake supports Kamala Harris
Flake said Harris stands for all those things, and believes that bipartisanship is the way forward on issues surrounding the border. “That’s me 12 years ago. I felt the same way,” he added.

“Principled conservatism” entails assessing a candidate, and not blindly following party lines, Flake said. “I am supporting Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, not in spite of being a conservative Republican, but because I am a conservative Republican.”

“Conservative Republicans believe first and foremost in the rule of law,” and that means respecting the results of an election, Flake, a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, said. “I know she would never use the powers of the presidency to overturn an election that she did not win.”

Flake was right about one thing, Kamala lost so bad she had to accept the election results.

3. Now, to the heart of the problem in Maricopa County. The man who is responsible for the early vote count is on record as wanting to make life hell for Kari Lake:

Maricopa County Election Official Admits He Wanted to ‘Make Life Hell’ for Kari Lake, Court Docs Reveal – RedState

Explosive court documents show Stephen Richer, who serves as Maricopa County recorder, admitting he wanted to "make life hell" for Senate Republican candidate Kari Lake.

According to a text exchange within the filings, Richer also admitted to being vehemently "anti-MAGA."

Richer, in his role as recorder, is in charge of ballots - early voting, which includes mail-in voting - that could decide whether or not Lake prevails in her tight run for the Senate.

Want to know how Lake started 120,000 votes down against Gallego, Hobbs in 2022 too, look no further than Stephen Richer.

This also from the article which should be read in its entirety:

Richer isn't the only Republican official to attempt to make Ms. Lake's life hell. Former Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit was forced to resign in January after bombshell audio was released capturing an attempt to bribe Lake to stay out of politics. “There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” DeWit had said before suggesting she could get lucrative no-show jobs instead. Lake had only been considering running for the Senate seat at the time.

Bottom line, until people like Stephen Richer are weeded out of the vote counting process, Arizona will remain a corrupt state. As Josef Stalin once said, not a quote, it's who counts the votes that matters.

 

What's this, about the 50th incident of Dems cheating or doing something questionable? This is who they are

 

Michael Whatley needs to go to Arizona and Lara Trump needs to go to Pennsylvania. RNC, quit acting like the election is over. Kari Lake and Mike McCormick need to be gotten across the finish line.

While out there Michael Whatley, take a look at the Sam Brown screwed job in Nevada too.

Don't just warn people they will be punished for cheating, actually see that they get punished while standing with these fine Senate candidates out west.

We have some close House races to look into as well.

It's time to have a national requirement that vote counting must be complete within 24 hours of final poll closings in each state.

 

Although the probability is incredibility small and I believe that he is unrealistic theoretically there are enough provisional ballots from Philadelphia to provide Casey with the grounds for a recount. While I think that he should face reality and concede now it's only matter of time before he actually does. If he doesn't qualify for a recount and doesn't concede or if he absolutely refuses to concede after recount call him an election denier. As long as he has a basis not to concede he's not an election denier. As I previously mentioned Trump refused to concede the 2020 election after he exhausted every legal remedy. Same for Kari Lake in the 2022 Gubernatorial election. Interesting question is will she concede if she loses the 2024 Senate election. It seems that it will be hard for her to realistically claim election fraud considering that the presidential election in Arizona has been called for Trump.

 

MAGA going after two of the 3 candidates to lead the senate.

Thune actually pushed back saying djt should stay out of it because he would have to work with all of the senators. he gets my vote

Tucker Carlson angrily accuses Senate Republicans of plotting ‘coup’ against Trump

Back in February, after McConnell announced he would be stepping down at the end of the year, Donald Trump Jr also labeled Thune and Cornyn as “RINOs,” or Republicans in name only.

The president-elect’s son wrote: “Both of them also voted to send billions more to Ukraine. MAGA must do everything in our power to stop either of these two RINOs from ever becoming Senate Leader!”

Trump also previously slammed Cornyn after he successfully negotiated bipartisan gun safety legislation, claiming the Texas Senator facilitated “the first step in the movement to TAKE YOUR GUNS AWAY.”
....................................
Meanwhile, the South Dakota Senator told CNBC on Thursday that while he understood that Trump could “exert a considerable amount of influence” on the Senate leadership race, “my preference would be, and I think it’s probably in his best interest, to stay out of that.” He continued: “These Senate secret ballot elections are probably best left to senators, and he’s got to work with all of us when it’s all said and done.”

 

Gallego now the projected winner. They're was a deep blue Maricopa dump today that put things all but out of reach for Lake. Mathematically still possible, but highly improbable for Lake to catch up.

As for faster counting in Arizona, Secretary of State Fontes says the people want Cadillac performance, but the budget only allows for Yugos. The counties are counting as fast as they can. But are limited by the tech they have to work with. There's no magic fix.

Also, most states haven't had races this close. Most are still counting military and provisional ballots, including PA. But numbers being what they are, the races have already been called.

 

The correct term is deficient provisional ballots under Pennsylvania law.

Philadelphia alone cannot be allowed to count these deficient provisional ballots. Every county in the state has to be given that same right.

As the vote count changed very little over the last 24 hours, I don't think any of the estimated 15,000 to 20,000 deficient provisional ballots in Philadelphia County have been counted and added to the total. To do so would be openly breaking Pennsylvania law.

As of this Sunday morning:

David McCormick - 3,369,877 - 49.01%
Bob Casey, Jr. - 3,330,286 - 48.43%
Difference - .5800%

Any counting going on now are any remaining legal provisional ballots and the military ballots.

Bottom line, Casey, Jr. was wrong to bring in Marc Elias. He has moved into lawfare which makes him an election denier. Hypocrite that he is, he campaigned on claiming McCormick to be an election denier supporter.

Recount or no, there is no path to victory which is why the AP and Fox News called the election. Bob Casey Jr. should bring his clown car to a stop by conceding the election.

 

For my good friend @okeechobee
Arizona Senate: Ruben Gallego defeats Kari Lake

 

Yes, I was aware when it was called. She made it interesting, but fell a little short. Oh well, 53-47 GOP majority cancels out any shenanigans from Collins and Murkowski. The wins in PA and OH seemed like a longshot just a few months ago. All the GOP senate seats up for 2026 are in states Trump won. We'll probably get at least one more SCOTUS nominee, if not two from our leader, President Donald J. Trump.