Senate election results - please post here

Vote count: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/47/0
Ballots remaining to be counted: https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/47/0

 

Gallego still had a 43k lead. Lake only shaved off 9k. Lake needs to win the outstanding vote by 10 points to win. Not impossible, but I don't think she accomplished it today. Close, but not quite.

 

I see math isn't your strong suit. Or perhaps denial is your stronger suit.

 

If this continues in Maricopa, she will win:

Maricopa County posted results from 72,100 additional ballots Thursday evening, pushing its total number already tabulated to more than 1.6 million. Those votes favored Lake at 57% to Gallego’s 41%. The county estimates that it has around 472,000 more ballots to count, and there are around 780,000 left to count across the state.

 

Bob Casey, Jr., election denier, is refusing to concede the Pennsylvania US Senate election even though he has fallen just outside of the automatic required recount difference of .5. The current vote difference is .501 and expanding in David McCormick's favor.

Cambria County is deep red. So far the county has McCormick 62.1% and Casey 35.6%. The county had machine issues on election which allowed a 2-hour extension for voting. Voters who couldn't stay and wait to vote left their ballots as provisional ballots that were to be counted last. These are the last ballots in all of Pennsylvania left to be counted. It's a lot of ballots as only 61% of the county has been reported because of the provisional ballots. The current .501 difference is only going to get further outside of the .5 requirement for a recount. Recognizing this, outlets have declared McCormick the winner. McCormick has claimed the win, so he has become senator elect.

McCormick leads by 34,242 votes and Casey knows all of the above, but he is still refusing to concede. I guess it's okay for Casey to be an election denier because he is a democrat.

I don't really believe Casey to be an election denier, but that is what would be said if the positions were reversed. If he wants to wait to see the final Cambria County vote count, that is his right to do so. I suspect Casey will concede today as the vote difference continues to widen.

 

It all comes down to Maricopa County. Almost always does. And yes, Lake needs to win +10 in Maricopa to win the election.

Where the ballots come from in Maricopa is an unknown. It's a huge county. If the ballots are from central or west Phoenix and Tempe surrounding the ASU campus, those will skew Gallego. If they are from the East Valley or more Northern areas like Cave Creek, they will be very red.

 

First count released had Gallego up 120,000~ votes in the state. There have been several updates since then and almost all of them have allowed Lake to cut into Gallego's lead significantly. The mail in was counted first, which slightly favored Gallego. They are working through the drops offs now, which are obviously GOP friendly. It's going to be pretty close.

Your problem may not be Maricopa.. if they are working through drop offs and drop offs mirrored in-person voting, then it stands to reason that she will see higher margins in Yavapai, Yuma and Cochise. There is still a lot of outstanding vote in those very red counties. And then Pima is not going to yield as well for Gallego if drop off ballots are favoring GOP overall.

 

Also, will point out Biden won California by +29 in 2020. Harris is not even ahead by +18 in California. Trump won Texas by +6 points in 2020. He won Texas this year by +14 points. Why do I point this out? Because Biden squeaked out Arizona by less than a half-point in 2020. So I would not be surprised if Trump ends up carrying the state by +8 or +9 points when the vote is finalized. If that happens, Lake has a very good chance of winning.

 

lawfare to begin, casey outside required vote recount.

 

Arizona posts results for 22,000 more ballots. Gallego lead down to 39,676. Lake won this last batch nearly 60/40. Lake cut into his margin by 4,100 votes from the last update. At that pace, she'd only need about 220,000 ballots to be counted and there are 758,000~ left in the state.

Gallego, Ruben (DEM) 49.7% 1,310,713 Votes (Leading by 39,676)
Lake, Kari (REP) 48.2% 1,271,037 Votes

 

There will be a mini-meltdown if Lake pulls this off. Right now Dems think the worst case scenario is 53-47. Lake makes it 54-46 and she is known as a Trump loyalist.

What the GOP is doing with the Senate in this election cannot be overstated. 54-46 would almost virtually ensure a GOP Senate through the duration of Trump's presidency.

 

Arizona - Pima batch drop: Lake +6704 (44.59%) Gallego +7917 (52.66%)

This most recent batch drop from Pima is a horrible split for Gallego from his most lucrative county. With outstanding votes in Pinal, Cochise, Yavapai and Yuma far in excess of what's left in Pima, this is a good update for Lake.

 

She could split the remaining Maricopa 50/50 from here and if she wins 55.44% of the vote remaining outside Maricopa, she's ahead.

 

This goes along with what @AzCatFan was talking about. They are counting the Oct 29-ED early vote. Lake keeps gaining. Will it be enough? We'll know in 2 weeks.

 

Small, but she won the latest drop from Pima!!

 

ARIZONA UPDATE: YAVAPAI COUNTY DROP
-LAKE: 5,071 (75.74%)
-GALLEGO: 1,475 (22.03%)
-OTHER: 149 (2.23%)

Gallego lead down to 36,748 votes. 718,474 votes to go statewide.. she needs to peel off 52.6% of them to win.

 

Lake odds jump to 22% on Polymarket on latest data.... They were near 1% Wednesday morning. Go Kari go!!!

 

Nevada has been called for Rosen. Gallego is still ahead in Arizona the margin between him and Lake has changed very little since last night.
Arizona Senate Election 2024 Live Results
Nevada Senate Election 2024 Live Results

 

There haven’t been any vote drops in AZ since last night. Hence, no change. AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster this cycle had Lake barely winning in AZ. We’ll see what comes in today. I’m not sold that Lake will win, but there is plenty of vote outstanding for it to happen.