We'll have to wait to see the breakdown by gender and race. And demographics by state play a big part. Michigan is 6% Hispanic. Arizona is 31.6% Hispanic. If Hispanic men are acting on their machismo, it would have a much greater effect in Arizona than in Michigan. And could possibly explain the vote disparity between Trump and Lake, who again, is the female version of Trump.
The implications of rigging the Lake-Gallego vote are much smaller than rigging Trump-Harris. Rigging Trump-Harris could literally have started a civil war. I will close out for now by stating this senate race is not over. Most of what has been counted is the mail in vote. The election date turnout was almost 2:1 GOP in Maricopa. The race will continue to tighten statewide, because despite Pima still having their outstanding, the other counties do also and they will make up for whatever she loses in Pima. I believe she was down 7 points statewide on the first vote dump. She's closed to within 2 points. Still over half a million votes to be counted in Maricopa alone.
It can also be true. Hispanic males may have been turned off by Harris and Lake based purely on gender. And I could see the Trump vote by Hispanic males being close to 50/50. But these same men voting one of their own, Ruben Gallego, an Hispanic male, by +10 or more. As for the remaining votes, they aren't Election Day votes. They are the late earlies, which are early ballots dropped off between Saturday and Tuesday. They generally don't skew that far from current county totals. To make up Gallego's current lead, plus the 25k he's expected to increase his total from Pima County, Lake would have to win 58% of the outstanding Maricopa County vote.
Link to the bolded? Your math doesn't line up on all fronts. First, 3 days of early vote don't add up to what's outstanding. Secondly, Lake doesn't have to make up any increase Gallego sees in Pima with Maricopa. The other counties will make up for Pima. Readjust your numbers with other counties offsetting any further gains Gallego makes in Pima, because they will. You'll see that Lake is still very much alive. Btw, NY Times and every other media organization has access to this info. If it was impossible, the race would have been called by now. As mentioned before, Lake has made up ground in almost every update since the first batch of data out of AZ.
It's how Arizona vote counting has been done since 2012, when laws changed to make it easier to get mail-in, early ballots. Counting starts a week before election day, starting with on-time earlies. It takes about 2 to 3 days on average for an early batch of votes to be counted, since each one needs to be signature verified. Election day votes are easier to count. Signatures have already been verified at the polling place. The counting here is usually done by the wee hours of Wednesday morning with a few exceptions, such as provisional ballots. The last to be counted are the late-earlies. Mail-in ballots dropped off between Saturday and election day. As for the other counties in Arizona, there are 765,000 or so votes still outstanding. 470,000 are in Maricopa County. 129,000 are in Pima. That leaves only 166,000 for the rest of the state, including 20,000 in heavily blue Coconino and Apache Counties when combined. Add outstanding ballots from Pima, Coconino, and Apache, and they pretty much wash each other out. This leaves Maricopa County. Lake will have to win by double digits in a county she is currently losing by 5 points to win this election.
Your numbers on what's left outstanding are incorrect. Per Arizona SoS, there are 584,000 ballots left to be counted in Maricopa. And again, all you have to do is the quick math on the counties outside of Maricopa and Pima. The amount remaining offsets Pima, even including Coconino and Apache. In fact, she may gain, because many of these counties skewed much more heavily in favor of Trump than Pima did for Harris. We'll see, is the answer. The networks have called most of the close Senate races. If this one was over for Lake, they would have called it. Truth be told, you don't know what's left in that pile, but it's enough that a GOP friendly area or two could make up the difference. Again, Gallego started with a 120,000 lead and Lake has cut it to 53,000. The potential is there. https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/47/0
I'm using the NY Times info. It's still possible for Lake to win, but unlikely. She would have to do better in Maricopa County that Trump is to win. Which again, would be a huge turnaround. I expect the final total to be Gallego by around 25k votes. This is looking a lot like the POTUS vote of 2020, where Biden started with firewall of 115k votes. It was whittled down to about 10k in the end. But Biden still won. Current pattern is pretty much mirroring this. At this point, the outstanding votes are likely representative of the entire county, and again, aren't going to skew that far from what has already been counted. 3 or 4 points? Maybe. But double digit? Not likely.
You're assuming Trump's numbers in Maricopa won't improve. Based on the breakdown in party vote in Maricopa, his numbers will almost certainly climb from the 3% lead he currently enjoys in Maricopa. Thank you for making the best argument yet as to how Lake wins this. Harris will fall well short of Biden's vote total in almost every state. It's been skewing much more than that since the first report Tuesday night. Why wouldn't that continue? Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but acting like it won't just because you say it won't is whistling past the graveyard. Why do Dems continue torturing themselves this way?
The skewing won't continue. The final counts being voted aren't election day votes. They are late-early votes. They generally fall in line with what has already been reported by county at this point. Might skew +/- up to 3 points, but usually not more than this. And again, Lake would have to do better than what Trump is currently doing to win this. She hasn't done that yet in Maricopa County.
We'll see. I'm not predicting she will win based on what I'm seeing now, but I think there's a good probability there will be more skewing. We'll see.
If David McCormick unseats Bob Casey which seems likely the Republicans should thank Leila Hazou the Green Party candidate. McCormick is leading Casey by approximately 31,000 votes, Hazou has received around 64,000 votes. Somewhat ironic that a lefty who claims to represent the interests of the working class will be responsible for the election of a conservative hedge fund manager backed by billionaires.
So if it's true it's no longer racist? You're starting to sound like one of those highly despised "race realists." As one of them once said: "Truth is better than ignorance, lies or wishful thInking." I don't have the stats in front of me but I can tell you Hispanic women turned their backs on Kamala Harris in a big way. Heard that from Rich Baris on a podcast.
Gallego lead down to 43,700 votes with a small vote dump. Plenty of vote left. Which day are they counting now? Lololololol KARI!! KARI!! KARI!!
Counties outside Maricopa: there is still a large amount of votes outstanding in Arizona counties that are going 2 to 1 for Lake. Comes down to how Maricopa finishes out. Trump's lead in the state continues to grow and Lake inches closer and closer. Indeed, this feels a lot like 2020. If you're Gallego, the minutes seem like hours right now. I think the counties outside of Maricopa will favor Lake slightly. Yavapai, Yuma and Cochise with lots of votes to count. She doesn't even have to win 53% of the outstanding ballots in the state to take the lead. Gonna be a nail biter. Trump will carry the state by 7 or 8 points. Kamala and Walz were campaigning feverishly in the state. Maybe just enough to keep Lake out of the Senate, but nobody thought it was going to be this close.
