Looks like McCormick and Brown will win and Democrats will hole WI and MI. Senate will be 54-46. Time to confirm some new SCOTUS Justices.
55-45, most likely, if Brown wins. Lake in AZ is going to win that race, most likely. She is dominating the election day vote and that is what's left to be counted in Arizona. The numbers in Arizona are a bit skewed right now because of this. I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump win the state by 8 or 9 points. Most of the outstanding vote is very favorable to Trump and Lake.
It will be interesting to see who Ohio’s Republican governor DeWine appoints to temporarily fill Vance’s senate seat. There will eventually be a special election for that seat, but DeWine will fill it in the meantime.
Yep, wife just told me she is one of only 2 black women in the Senate. Maryland is a blue state, but I thought Hogan had a good chance to win this, at least until his scandal broke.
There were a lot of D commercials about not voting for Hogan as it would give Republicans the Senate. Was actually a pretty smart campaign. Lot of Hogan governor voters saying that they liked him but did not want to give R's the Senate.
Saw that a lot - i think every Dem running for the Senate used that angle. I got it in a lot of political texts.
I got texts like this about everyday the last couple weeks: “this is Ted Cruz & I'm in the fight of my life.” “Farewell, Ted Cruz. Our hearts sank... We prayed we were wrong. But if you don't already know, here's what happened:” All of these asking for money. I thought they sounded pretty desperate.
Lake makes some more gains overnight in AZ. Looks like Brown is out in NV. McCormick in PA makes it 53-47 GOP. Lake would make it 54-46 if she is able to recover. I have a feeling McCormick will get screwed in the recount, but you never know. Expect Lake to continue making up ground. Still a lot of vote left to count in AZ.
McCormick has close to a 28,000-vote lead over Casey. I don't think any recount under the scrutiny this recount will be under can find that many votes. The only reason there will be a recount is because Pennsylvania law requires it at .5% and less, right now at .4%. I'd love for Kari Lake to make a comeback for the ages, but I've watched this happen for years in Arizona. How she can be behind by such a large amount in republican Maricopa is a mystery to me and especially so with Trump winning Arizona. I hope the RNC has lawyers and election observers everywhere they need to be in Arizona. JMHO, even with only 74% of the count in, she can't catchup if those results in Maricopa continue. My gut says something is wrong, but I wouldn't know where to begin to discover the problem. I'd like to see Lara Trump and Mike Whatley go out to Arizona to personally meet with the state republican leadership. Next door in Nevada, Sam Brown was ahead until he wasn't and then it was quickly over. Seems like strange doings in these western states. Looks like the republicans will control the senate: Republicans 53 Democrats 45 Independents 2 Independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont caucus with the democrats so they may as well be democrats.
As of right now, Gallego has a 52k lead. The two counties with the most outstanding votes are Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tucson). Gallego is currently +23 in Pima. Even if he underperforms in Pima at +20 for the remaining votes, that will add about another 25k votes to the lead. Gallego is also currently winning in Maricopa. Even if there's a massive turnaround, and lake is suddenly +10 with the outstanding votes, that only shaves about 17k to 18k off the lead. This would mean Lake would have to win the remaining votes at a +50 clip, which won't happen, especially since there are votes in Flagstaff, another blue area, to be counted. The race will likely be called for Gallego today or tomorrow unless the outstanding votes from Maricopa and Pima are all from heaviest red areas of the respective counties.
Do you have an opinion on why Lake is so far behind in republican Maricopa? I agree Lake can't catch up.
Mysogyny. Lake is the female version of Trump. Same rhetoric, but without the business failures and racist past. She was actually a pretty good Fox 10 Phoenix news anchor for years. Why else do people vote for Trump, but vote against the female clone?
That's just a stale democratic talking point. Trump currently leads in Maricopa 51% to 48%, 783,029 to 736,296. If Lake is the female Trump, she should be ahead by 3%. Does Kari Lake have excessive BO or something? The vote count is Maricopa doesn't make sense. I should have known better than ask you. My bad.
I'm not buying this explanation. If it was just a matter of misogyny, every district that has a female Trump rep would put up a male Democrat and flip the seat. I think Lake alienated some voters with her comments about McCain supporters and her kerfuffel with the Pinal sheriff.
My understanding of the current data in Maricopa is that all of the mail in vote has been counted and tallied. And that what they are tallying now is the Election Day vote. The mail in vote favored Trump/Lake some, but not to the 2:1 degree the election day voting did. To me this at least somewhat verifies with the data we're being shown as Lake has closed the gap some in terms of % of the vote since late Tuesday night. Where are you getting the updates on the split in Maricopa, by the way? She has clearly made up ground, but for the reasons you've already mentioned, it may be impossible for her to catch Gallego. If they don't want it to happen, it won't. To back your point up on that further, the first batch of data Arizona released Tuesday night was the mail in vote for the state. That was estimated at 54% of the state vote. Trump was slightly behind, by a fraction. Now, he's up by 5.45%. Almost an 8-point gap between Trump's performance now and Lake's. Doesn't make sense.
NY Times has a breakdown of vote by county. It lists how each candidate is doing by county, total votes by county, and expected percentage still outstanding. Listen to Lake. She's a female version of Trump. She campaigned on the Trump agenda 100%. What other difference besides gender is there between Lake and Trump? What else could account for the huge vote difference?
Fraud. One look at the current count in Maricopa tells you all you need to know. Trump is currently beating Harris by >3% in Maricopa. Lake is trailing Gallego by >5% in Maricopa. An 8-point swing. Okay, but a deeper look into the vote totals illustrate the obvious. Gallego actually leads Trump in votes in Maricopa. So far, 1,534,030 total ballots cast in Maricopa presidential race. 1,518,689 votes total in Maricopa senate race. So with less overall vote cast, Gallego somehow leads Trump. That would mean that not only did a large portion Trump voters not vote for Lake, but of those voters almost all of them voted for Gallego too. That's where you lose me. I can buy them not voting for Lake, but that they voted for Trump and Gallego in such high quantity is beyond belief. Why ditch Kamala and still vote for Gallego in such high amounts? Is that misogyny too? If that's your best explanation, it just feeds the fraud narrative more, because that's not the reason.
So, there's fraud for the Senate. But those that "rigged" the election for Gallego somehow forgot to rig the election for Harris? BS. The polls were all showing a 8 to 10 point swing between the POTUS and Senate elections in Arizona. I too thought it was crazy to have this big a swing. But the polls look like they were right.
If misogyny was so rampant in this election, Slotkin would have lost her race big-time. Next you'll tell me it's Hispanic men who are the misogynists. How many talking points are you going to borrow from MSNBC in one day?
