I think it’s because she just had a few months to create her own message. Because Biden stupidly and selfishly decided to run again, he knee-capped a real primary and the time to develop a message, much less the opportunity for another candidate to step into the spotlight. Imagine' for example, the race with a guy like Joe Manchin running against Trump. I think it would have been a much different race and message.
I still can’t understand how he DIDN’T drag down the ticket. Calling single-women cat-women, creating the entire pet-eating nonsense,the dining shop gaffe, the former quips by him that Trump was the equivalent to Hitler…. All those things. Under normal circumstances, that would have been the cement footing to dry the ticket to the bottom of the ocean. People just didn’t care.
Was coming to post the same thing. Seems to confirm a number of things we have said. The “Kamala is for they/them” ad was shockingly impactful; Trump campaign testing showed it shifted the race by 2.7 points, the Harris campaign couldn’t come up with a response ad that polled well enough to run, and they didn’t take Bill Clinton’s advice to flat out disavow the statement and say they wouldn’t do that. And her most impactful messaging was the “a fresh start” theme, until she torpedoed it for herself by getting on The View and saying she couldn’t think of anything she would do differently than Biden.
Joe thought he was doing right by running against Trump since he beat him last election. What Joe didn’t know was his mental state had deteriorated and it showed during some televised events. Someone had to step up at the last minute. When that occurred many of the democratic black elected said if it’s not Kamala they would not back anyone else. Some demanded it be her. Well they got what they asked for even demanded in some instances, and here we are. Democrats are their own worst enemy.
I'd point out that the Democrats did have someone running against Biden in the primary who said he was running because Biden was too old. His new callsign is Cassandra. Agree that if Manchin had been on the top of the ticket for Democrats, this is a different race.
Whatever happened to the Swifties vote ? Taylor’s clout is dubious. Either that or her fans just prefer droning monotonous tunes but are impervious to her political rantings.
So much of our knowledge seems so dumb in hindsight. Remember the many posters claiming that Hillary had a neural disease and wouldn’t live through a four year term? It’s why I preach (and try to practice) humility. The universe is just isn’t as simple as it seems.
Once again Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all went for the same presidential candidate for the 8th time in a row. Paid 10:1 when I made the bet many weeks ago What's great about a live prediction market like Kalshi is that as soon as a bet looks shaky or bad you can push a button and cash out. Duval County, Florida predicts how the entire state of Georgia will go. When Duval County wasn't as solid as I wanted (Trump up by an estimated 1-2%) I cashed out of 2 Georgia bets (Trump to win Georgia by 5-5.99% and Trump to win Georgia by 6% or more). Trump won Georgia by only 2.2% Robert Barnes was also online and participating in a live chat with other bettors. He was mainly there to make the "cash out" call (if needed) on betting position he had recommended. That happened in 2020 when he had predicted a Trump win. On election day around midnight he said get out of the bet which people did at a profit. Barnes had thought a steal was possibly in the works. Better safe than sorry.
It was interesting to me that, for all of the talk about how Walz was a great pick to outreach to Republican voters and no one likes JD Vance, while the margins were razor thin (1% difference on each), exit polling gave Vance both higher favorables and lower unfavorables than Walz.
Another factor that I completely got wrong was the "vaunted" Democrat ground game which was supposed to increase turnout. It turned out (pun intended) to be a dismal failure with Democrat turnout at least 10 million fewer than it was four years ago.
My plan is to pay myself minimum wage for 40 hours and then the entire rest of my salary in OT. Same for my employees. Gonna be dope.
