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The election betting thread

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by sflagator, Oct 28, 2024.

  1. sflagator

    sflagator VIP Member Trusted GC Insider

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    We'll see, smart guy
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  2. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Screenshot 2024-11-03 at 2.13.31 PM.png


    Quick update on Florida. As of now, we're at 71.4% of the total 2020 vote count in the state. Still tracking for a possible 20-point landslide win for Trump. It will depend on how NPA's vote, but one would have to assume Trump wins NPA's by 8 or 9 points. We know voting on election day is typically 2-to-1 GOP in the purple states. Trump has decent odds of a 20+ win here and if he does that, it's very difficult to see Harris outperforming him elsewhere. If we only had PA's early vote totals. We only have their mail in totals.

    Side note: clear that Trump will deliver a crushing win in Miami-Dade.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  3. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    Betting odds moving towards Donald.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    They’re just betting odds, but they are more than double what they were this time 4 years ago. Every Trump bettor who remembers this is still extremely cautious.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  5. Gatorhall

    Gatorhall GC Hall of Fame

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    Glad you were wrong bro.
     
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  6. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    Let’s see…
    Not there yet.
    I’m genuinely surprised he’s in a position to crush the camel.
     
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  7. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Off the board, looks over.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
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  8. magnetofsnatch

    magnetofsnatch Rudy Ray Moore’s Idol Premium Member

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    4 years ago he was at 92% in the betting markets at one point before losing.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  9. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

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    Trump’s up to a 92% chance to win on the new legal app for election betting with $23 million of net, new money on his side in the last hour. Not sure how to link to Kalshi.
     
  10. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    it’s higher than that this time, it’s going to hurt folks worse if that happens this time around.

    Any sites still offering odds?

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
  11. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

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    There were no betting odds four years ago that are remotely comparable. You couldn’t legally make a market for that then. Who knows how reliable this is, but massive amounts of money from a liquid market usually is not wrong. I hope it is.
     
  12. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Not sure what you mean. It was legal to bet on it then and it is legal to bet on it now.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
  13. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

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  14. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    That's a problem for US hosts, not a problem for US bettors. Still, it's worth asking how much of the money comes from international gamblers. Regardless, the betting took place and the odds were recognized.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
  15. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

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    Drastically different. $1bn was bet on the entire 2020 election. $323 million was bet in the last five days on one app for 2024. Over $20mm in the last hour.

    Think of it like illegal offshore gambling for sports betting versus the stock market. The donor class, hedge fund managers, all my colleagues in PE, etc., etc. can place a trade that is backed by CFTC.

    It’s not remotely similar and you can read all about why in the future.
     
  16. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Honestly not sure what you are getting at here. Is the handle this year 5x more, 10x more, 20x more? Something else? Does that increase impact the accuracy of the wagers? We can take college football games (for example), some games get 100x more action on it than others, but that doesn't mean the line for that game is more accurate.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
  17. WESGATORS

    WESGATORS Moderator VIP Member

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    Odds back on the board; was just at -1351 for Republican win. Now seeing it at -1000.

    Go GATORS!
    ,WESGATORS
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  18. cluckugator

    cluckugator VIP Member

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    Khalsi isn’t a “bet” it is a prediction on the likely outcome of a future event. You buy a future’s contract that is regulated the same way you would buy one if you “bet” on the future price of soybeans or bought a put/call for a public equity.

    The betting market still exists from this message board to offshore markets regardless of legal status.

    Again, there has never been a “market maker” for national elections that is legal that real money with expert knowledge plus massive amounts of stupid public money can pour into at the last minute.

    Offshore bets could be any multiple of what they were last election cycle (and I am sure they are), but comparing just offshore bets with real predictions backed this time is apples to oranges.

    Trump won this election though, and I trust the newly formed futures exchange with that prediction.