As of now, white turnout in GA statewide is 63.2%, black turnout is 49.9%. That looks like a turnout problem to me.
Dartmouth has Harris +28 in NH with a MOE of 4%. If those numbers are even close to true, along with the Iowa and Kansas numbers, look out. NH was never really in play for Republicans, but that’s a big shift from 2020 where Biden was only +7.
I wish FL was still a good indicator for motivation because Reps are kicking butt here today so far. Kind of surprising if Dems don't pick up later in the day considering the abortion Amendment 4 is on the ballot.
If it's really 28 in that poll it's bigger fake news than Selzers bought and paid for +3 Harris poll. Hard to see Trump losing NH by double digits.
Dartmouth and Selzer are both top notch, non-partisan polls. You can choose to ignore the data at your own accord, but I’m just reporting it.
She’s probably not winning by double digits, it is light year out of line with other polling there. But it is a good sign that it will be comfortable.
Florida turnout thus far: Election Date - 11/05/2024 Republican 3,761,919 (42.3%) Democrat 2,972,779 (33.5%) Other 215,271 (2.4%) No Party Affiliation 1,935,250 (21.8%) GOP turnout thus far: 69.0% Dem turnout thus far: 67.5% Total turnout thus far: 8,885,219 or 64.2% of registered voters statewide (others and NPAs are dragging the average down) A 20% rout by Trump is going to be a tall order in the Free State of Florida. Really depends on other/NPA split. But again, for GOP to be this far ahead and actually turning out more of their voters in early voting than Dems, is unbelievable. Will Florida smash their record turnout in 1992 (83%)? Probabilities look good, especially if Dems can match GOP today vote for vote.
Agreed. Nobody thinks she’s actually going to win it by +28, just like we don’t think she is going to win Iowa, but if Trump is only somewhere around +5 in Iowa, that’s still a big dip in support and it’s still bad for him.
It is telling you all are talking about bunk one-off polls from NH showing Harris +28, as opposed to polling data that actually matter.
It is quite possible Wisconsin could be the tipping point at which the networks call the race and not PA:
To be fair, there is definitely some of this running in the opposite direction as well. There is a curious phenomenon where many of us are acting like who wins is a partisan matter. However, as with climate change, the world is going to get warmer or not, regardless of what I want to be true. I certainly don’t want another Trump presidency, but the final tally will be whatever it will be, regardless of my feelings.
My thesis is the turnout. I think GOP will still dominate election day voting. Perhaps by not as much as previous cycles, but I won't accept (until proven) that in one cycle, the GOP have become the party of early voting. But a 20% margin for Trump is unlikely. Mid to high teens most likely. It'll be surreal when the networks call Florida at 7:00pm on the nose.
This is my thing. I don’t know who wins but you’d think if it was just guys playing with it then there’d be some serious bets coming in for Harris with those odds. It’s the same reason I took sflgators bet. I very well may lose but the odds were worth betting at even money on Trump.
It’s hard to gauge where the betting market is going with this. As soon as the Selzer poll came out, Polymarket went all the way down to 53/47 Trump from where it was at 68/32, and now all a sudden he’s back up there again despite all the highest graded polls making Harris the favorite. Something afoul is going on.
I just don’t understand why Harris people aren’t jumping on it. It’s gotta be around +200 at those numbers.
