Oh and look who’s back? so what will be interesting tomorrow is that there have been four or five of these all showing Kamala up 4 or so. Is this the number that the major pollsters are suppressing out of fear, or dem leaning pollsters hopping in late to skew the averages? It could be we will never know. It it will likely impact Silver’s final number at midnight, not that it matters much. What’s gonna happen is gonna happen. But 538 just flipped back to her. 50-49.
As already discussed, if the statewide turnout is 55% right now, 50% in Fulton is bad if you’re a Harris fanboy. Wow, look at the racial breakdown of the vote in Fulton thus far. That tells you all you need to know. Fulton has a slightly higher Black population than White.
Of course, Silver’s final model run… “ Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives. I’m not quite sure what to say about this, but we’ll have a newsletter out for you later tonight/this morning and link to it here once it’s ready.” FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Final model predictions… The modelers all seem to have converged on a very slight advantage for Harris. But in reality, it’s a toss up. No real difference between a 49% and 51% chance of winning… Silver has Harris at 50.015%. Votehub has Harris by 2 EC. Dactile has Harris at 51%. 538 Has Harris at 50%, Trump at 49%.
My prediction (We can laugh later how inaccurate it was). Based on the limited hard data I can find on these states I think Trump is likely to win every swing state but Michigan.Not sure but I think that would be around 297 EV. I would be shocked if Trump lost either AZ or NC. GA and the 3 blue wall states are the hardest to pin down mostly due to no party registration except in PA. The range of possibilities imo is Harris holding the blue wall and barely getting 270 to Trump winning all swing states and pulling off a shocker in NH. If VA is within 4% or NH is within 3% for Trump I think Harris will be very likely to lose.
Lots of people dressed as chairs in that video, huh? And the video ends showing 2 people already leaving ...
Since it's a toss up on paper, I'm going with the promising numbers on women voters showing up big time and the general feeling that Harris Voters are more engaged and motivated, and predicting a Harris win ... followed by 3 months of Trump claiming he won ...
Nate Silver made some of his "paid subscriber" data free last night. The most telling is this, not for the slim lead she has, but that it shows momentum with swing voters settling on her at the last minute. Also, for some really nerdy stuff, he graphed how his 80,000 simulations played out, with Harris having a much larger lead through most of it, so that is promising to Harris, as well, I think. I mean, it's still a toss up, but a very very slight edge to Harris ... Also worth noting that Silver apparently gave Trump credit for "no Majority" simulations, which helps him.
We live in Sandy Springs (near Chastain Park) and there are far fewer Trump signs this year than there were in 2020 or Walker signs in 2022. Anecdotal but noticeable. Also the GA stats as a % of people who voted are a little misleading as the denominator in that fraction isn’t “registered” voters but “active” voters. An active voter is someone who has voted or interacted with the election system in GA within the past 5 years, meaning that many of the newly registered voters among the 350,000 people who have moved to metro Atlanta the past 4 years (most of the growth in the state) may not be included in the count. So while @okeechobee is correct about rural county early voting in GA but that may not present a full picture. My opinion is that GA at heart is still a pretty red state-no Dem has won a statewide election here in 30 years when Trump or his hand picked candidates were not on the ballot, so I think it will be tough but not impossible for Harris to repeat what Biden did in 2020. Georgia early voting counties with highest turnout | 11alive.com “By percent of total turnout, more rural counties in the Peach State had the highest enthusiasm during the early voting period (keep in mind the state tracks turnout figures by percent of "active" voters, and not total registered voters. A voter is considered active in Georgia if they've cast a vote or otherwise interacted with the election system in the last five years.) “
FL isn't representative of swing states anymore but the early votes here today so far and the votes already cast suggest an easy double digit victory for Trump. Some think he could win by like 14% here now.
I said it was anecdotal (but noticeable) in response to @Tilly’s comment about Atlanta being a billboard for Harris, not that it was a prediction. I actually said in the same post it was going to be tough for a Harris to win GA, which is still red at heart. Pay attention.
As a friendly aside, because I generally enjoy your posts more often than not, props to the legislature there for getting things tightened up. The GA gov website is by far the most innovative and informative state gov site of the battlegrounds. Their data is nicely broken down by county, easy to use. https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
