Is your brain fully functional? Absentee ballots had to be requested back in Octobers deadline. 1.9M this year vs 3.0M in 2020. There’s less votes because less were requesting to vote by mail.
I sincerely hope you are doing okay. It's been a while since we chatted. You seem to be swerving all over the road with these replies. Get yourself together, man.
This year 2.2 million absentee ballots have been approved and sent out in PA. I don't think your brain is fully functional. All publicly available data. Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Total requested ballots for Dems in PA are down 38.1% versus 2020 and GOP requested ballots are down 8.9%. Even if you look at return rate of ballots sent out, GOP have improved with two days left to make it better.. Dems will likely fall short of their 2020 return rate. Current 2024 GOP return rate: 82.1% Current 2024 Dem return rate: 83.1% 2020 GOP return rate: 79.4% 2020 Dem return rate: 87.7% By every slice and measurement, Dems are doing worse this year and GOP are doing better.
Either Selzer and the more nonpartisan polls will be right, or we still haven’t learned anything polling wise from 2020. It’s a coin flip for me.
I've been noodling on whether 'wrong' is the right word here. I think it might be. There are so many ways to inject error and a real sampling challenge that an unbiased pollster could very well miss the mark despite a reasonable approach. Then you have the pay-for-results parasites...
Selzers poll is bought and paid for fake news. I do notice the real lefty polls from 2020 have Trump doing way better than their polls had him doing in 2020.
Selzer is apparently Nate Silver’s #1 rated poll (based on accuracy and non-bias), so not sure where you are getting that from. But I agree that Iowa is probably not going to Harris. Silver has talked about “herding” and “finger on the scale” polls, and how some pollsters are too afraid to publish their outliers, so putting out a poll like this shows some balls… maybe Iowa is closer than the “herded” polls are showing, though.
Again, here is Selzer’s history in the last 3 elections. She is the DSM register poll in these. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Iowa.html 2016 Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling 2012 Iowa: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling she could certainly be off this time. But she is the most accurate in that state by a mile. And every time she’s out on a limb she gets beaten up over it.
Haha, In the end Ralston went with Harris by .3 percent. Easy for him to be wrong though with a margin that tight. Editor Jon Ralston’s 2024 Nevada election predictions - The Nevada Independent I keep putting lol or haha in these posts not to laugh at anyone, only because the swings are so wild. He has pimped the Republican turnout for weeks and had the dems on their deathbed. But in the end he changed his mind I guess.
Here is another prime example of how bad it's going for Dems. Yes, more GOP are voting early this year than in past elections, but explain the slowdown in Democrats. In one election cycle, GOP have embraced early voting this much and Dems have moved away from it? Remember, there are more registered Dems in North Carolina than GOP. So to be behind in registered voters voting this late, with the knowledge that Dems are the party of early voting is a nightmare for Harris. Registered Dems in NC: 2,446,918 Registered GOP in NC: 2,340,021 Voter Registration Statistics
Entertaining read but i suspect you are right since he predicted a 3.3% Dem Senate win and only a 0.3% Dem Presidential win... as if 3% of democratic sentate voters will flip to Trump. Makes no sense to me.
