Women have a 10+ point lead over men in early voting. How many moderate Repub women cross over to vote for Harris? Also, independents have more early votes in NC than either Repubs or Dems, so I think it depends on where the indys fall.
Indies are voting in large numbers in Arizona too. If Harris has a double digit lead among the indies, it all but wipes out any R advantage in the state. And if the Rs crossover in Arizona the same rate as 2020 (9%), then Harris currently has a similar firewall than Biden had four years ago. Reasons why just looking at party registration of voters R vs D may not paint an accurate picture. Especially when you consider moderate, suburban R women in places like Iowa are likely the reason the recent poll there favors Harris. Lots of Midwestern, moderate Rs retire to Arizona.
Assuming Harris holds on to 90% of D's, she would need Trump to hold on to 88% of R's, and win Indies 61% to 39% to overcome the early voting lead R's currently have.
Jon Ralston predicts that Harris will win NV 48.5 to 48.2, mainly on betting on the Reid machine to get the votes out on election day. Editor Jon Ralston’s 2024 Nevada election predictions - The Nevada Independent If accurate, Harris could lose PA and still get to 272 with NV, NC, WI, & MI or NV, GA, WI, & MI.
Van Jones knows PA is lost. He has solid contacts in the Democratic party and he is laying the groundwork for the inevitable.
In the unlikely event you are a Cobb country resident that requested an absentee ballot, vote in person if you can. Your yet-to-be-delivered ballot is due by 7pm today. "I ain't got time for this shit" -- Marc Elias
Women significantly outnumbered men at my voting place. Saw 3 mother daughter in 15 minutes I was there. Learned that voters can wear whatever political ad you want and mill around in area where no ads are allowed. Just a group of friends wearing Trump hats and shirts having an extended conversation not far from the entry. Poll workers say that is legal in Florida
Again, its up against covid so... we already knew that was going to be down based on ballot requests. How can anyone know what turnout will look like?
Two very small samples but it might be the start of a trend that shows the polls were right and this will be a very close election.
Marc Elias is one of the very best election lawyers in this country. If the Dems regain control of the House, it will be in large part due to his efforts in successfully attacking gerrymandered districts in several states.
Something I'll be interested to hear about after the election is COVID. Saw a couple people on 2 Way this morning saying their vote was changed by the way the Biden Admin handled COVID.
I posted it in another thread, but that’s coming from here. Put as much or as little faith into it as you choose. They need 570k to match 2020. Turnout Tracker – sixty-six wards
All of the GOP fantasizing about the election outcomes ignore the NPAs because they figure it will be close to 50/50. But that is where the voter registration drives are leading young people to sign up. The NPAs in the swing state will likely swing AT WORST 70/30 Dem.
