Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

And these are examples of places where Democrat early voting is in line with or higher than 2020 figures to date? Or perhaps where EV overall is up, irrespective of party affiliation? Most of these states are not toss-ups.

 

There is a simple explanation for the record turnout in early voting this year compared with 2020. In 2020 while one party was encouraging its voters to vote early the other party and especially its nominee was actively discouraging its supporters from voting early encouraging them to vote in-person on election day. This time around both parties are encouraging their supporters to cast their votes early.

 

It's the swing states that matter. D's are down around 700k in PA. They are down in AZ, NV, and NC. I do not get how you can say that Democrats are not having a turnout issue this year.

Understanding the 2024 Early Vote – Split Ticket

 

You act like there is something wrong with thinking like women.

 

Read the first article that goes over the full country. Basically says turnout is trending strong and the party behaviors are returning to normal from the 2020 disruption that shot up Democratic early voting and killed the republican early voting. There is nothing to suggest the democrats have a turnout issue. They may. So may the Republicans. But there is nothing in the data suggesting there will be a low turnout among either party.

 

Then why do you think Democrats are short 700k in terms of early voting in PA versus where they were this time in '20? The thing I'm seeing in the numbers is that Democratic early voting is not keeping up with '20. I get that '20 was a COVID election but Democrats still encourage their voters to vote early and they are seeing a sizable drop in the number of early voters in swing states.

 

Maybe they have a turnout issue this year, maybe they don’t. We will see in the next day or two. But many Dems only voted early in 2020 because of Covid. They aren’t traditional early voters, they were forced into it by circumstance.
On the flip side, dear leader has given permission to vote early on the other side, so their numbers are up.

the only number that matters is the final vote tally, we will see soon enough who or what mattered and what is white noise.

 

THERE WERE 1 MILLION FEWER MAIL IN BALLOTS REQUESTED. Are you able to follow that? Ive told you that many times. Saying there is less early mail in votes when less were requested means nothing on turn out. it simply is a reflection of covid impact in 2020. Republicans are down too in PA even though they went from 25% to 33%, its of a smaller pie.

Nothing points to low turnout. There may be low turnout, but nothing indicates that right now.

 

IMO, comparing anything to 2020 is silly. It was literally a different world. I’d be curious to see how the numbers compare to 2016 or 2012.

 

Ask yourself if the Trump campaign was confident in the results going their way tomorrow would they have him doing 3 events in North Carolina today.

 

So you think a drop off in ballot request of over 1+ million ballots is not related to turn out?

 

Similarly if the Trump campaign was confident about Pennsylvania why has Trump and his campaign continued to float the story about massive voter fraud in that state?
Trump’s Pennsylvania Election Fraud Claims Debunked: What To Know
Trump stokes voter fraud fears in Pennsylvania as counties investigate and state urges patience

 

I dont. The return rate is running ahead of 2020. The requested number is down because you wont die voting in person from a virus. Then you add it to all the "in-person" voting increases in states that are not "mail in" states.

Cant really tell til the end though.

 

This is the weird part to me. Not that he thinks NC is important, it clearly is. But he can’t win without one of the rust belt states, so he needs to gamble on holding NC and be in PA or WI, or holding NC is meaningless. Unless they have great polling out of one of them, but I would be really surprised.

 

In states where they track voting by party registration and release the data for all types of early voting (mail, absentee and in person, etc), you can clearly see in all of them Dem turnout at this point in comparison to this point in 2020 is down. And by now, >70% of ballots have been cast, so it's not like we have a small sample size.

 

Fake news.

In 2020, there were 2,629,672 mail in ballots returned in PA. Thus far in 2024, there have been 1,790,319 mail in ballots returned. So we're about 839,000~ shy of total 2020 mail in vote received with a couple of days left to record more return.

Actual 2024 return totals for mail in thus far in PA:
Dems 55.7%
GOP 32.8%
Other 11.5%

In 2020, it was:
Dems 64.7%
GOP 23.7%
Other 11.6%

Pennsylvania Early Voting Statistics

 

NPR said this morning he's closing out campaign rallies tonight in Michigan:

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/04/nx-s1-5177397/2024-election-trump-harris

In addition to this, Trump is holding 2 rallies in PA today before the Grand Rapids, Michigan event tonight:

Live updates: Trump, Harris rallying across Pa. in final day of 2024 campaign – NBC10 Philadelphia

I am not seeing anywhere that says he's holding 3 rallies in NC today. I see that he started the day with one, but not 3.

 

I get it!

You used "think like women" as a subtle pejorative, denigrating the masculinity of men who vote as the women allegedly do. But when called out....YOU TURNED IT AROUND!

It was brilliant and masterful bush-league and playground laughable the way you did that!



Now get that weak nonsense over to the Nole board, maybe. Gotta be a lot of low IQ Trumpies there who would give you mad props for that wit.


Also, you see how I (maaaaybe) called Trumpies low-IQ, but if anyone protests, I'll just say it's cuz they're Noles?! Am I doing this playground thing right?

 

Again. When you voted when Covid was murdering people isn’t IF you vote. Dems voted early in lots of elections last time and lost. If early voting meant IF you vote we’d have both houses as democratic landslides in 2020.

 

It's understandable that campaign rallies at this point are going to have less attendance to some degree, as most people have already voted. But this is Kamala's rally in Scranton, PA today (shocker: the thumbnail is misleading):