Key Wisconsin county saw young voter spike after Harris rally Keeping in mind that the new voters wouldn't not have been captured by polls which focus on likely voters or registered voters (Wisconsin has same day registration). Although the article is about Dane County (Madison) the same phenomenon is also occurring in Milwaukee another county strongly predisposed to vote Democrat.
Semi-disgraced journalist Mark Halperin nailed this election on the head today on Twitter. He basically said if the electorate ends up being heavily female she wins, as a lot of the EV has been. If men dominate eday voting, she loses.
I’d venture to guess it’s going to be heavily female dominated. Only one sex is actively having rights stripped away from them so they have way more to lose.
You have to wonder how meaningful polling is at this stage, as a majority of ballots have already been cast. Are they merely sampling folks who have not yet voted? Seems like that would become harder and harder to do. We have to remember 70% or so of the votes are already in.
It seems to be a strategy from the Republicans this year. I am thinking that it has to do with two factors: 1. A permission structure for reluctant Trump voters to vote for him (everybody can't be awful, basically); 2. Setting the ground up, in case he loses, for more claims of fraud.
Adding the caveat that the poll is an outlier, according to Anne Selzer one of the most respected pollsters in the country the reason for the surprising result in Iowa is the shift of women (implicitly white women) in rural areas from Trump to Harris. Pollster explains why Iowa poll suggests Kamala Harris is leading Ann Selzer predicts a shock win for Kamala Harris in Iowa – here’s why it’s a big deal Interesting story regarding Selzer's polling when she was also an outlier 16 years ago. The approach took her to national acclaim when she accurately predicted that a first-senator by the name of Barack Obama would beat frontrunner Hillary Clinton, the former first lady, in the Iowa caucuses in 2008. Her forecast sparked reactions ranging from skepticism to outright mockery when it was published. A member of the Clinton campaign even called up to complain. “[PBS anchor] Judy Woodruff was interviewing me that day and said, ‘How did you assume this? Why did you assume this?’” Ms Selzer recalled to Politico. “I go, ‘I assumed nothing.’ My data told me this was what was going to happen.” I would add that I just saw an interview of Selzer and she indicated that if a majority of undecided voters and those who indicated that they were voting third party (RFK, Jr. is still on the ballot in Iowa) end up voting for Trump he could still carry the state although the shift among women previously predisposed to vote Republican is not good news for the Orange One.
The other big factor that isn't captured at all is that she will double or triple his crossover vote. A lot of GOP women don't want to be chained back up in the kitchen, either.
I'd like to see a poll of women asking how many care about the unborn children. I bet a lot of them would....maybe not a majority, though.
Very. But they'd vote for the ghost of LBJ over Trump. Keep in mind there are still Democrats like my late father still alive that never switched parties but haven't voted for a Dem president since JFK.
But I'd like to specifically ask about the unborn child. I'd imagine democrat leaning polls don't mention that at all.
It will be interesting in the coming months after the investigations have been conducted to see who was behind the manipulation of Polymarket and the betting sites along with how it was done. More election interference.
She may not be their ideal choice but she is infinitely superior to the joker representing the other party and once again a vote for Kamala Harris based on aversion to Donald Trump counts just as much as a vote for her based on her positive attributes.
Always remember that this guy is the largest investor in Polymarket. Peter Thiel Invests $70 Million In Polymarket—Where Users Gamble On Real-World Events
Women by a large margin want women to make the decision on their own bodies. Thats what the polls show.
