Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

My sister lives in a Des Moines suburb and she told me this a month ago - most of her neighborhood which was heavily pro-Trump before were either not voting or going for Harris. I just laughed her off because, well it’s Iowa!

 

this is where having a cash advantage is huge.

 

I have family there and my aunt said tonight the Iowa football game is all poly ads, but they are playing Wisconsin so no shocker there. Those are likely meant for the Wisky folks. Local ads a comin.
I’ve mentioned it before, I spent a lot of time in Iowa as a kid. They are decent upfront people, a personality like Trump’s is the exact opposite of how they live. I think some there finally had enough. Same in Kansas. That 5 point KS poll will be an outlier there (and this one may be too). But his act has worn thin on a lot of people.

Regardless of the final vote, and Trump is still favored there I would assume, it’s really hard to overstate what a shock this poll is. And why I mentioned last night it was coming. There were online rumors it was going to be something that set people ablaze. I think he was +9 there in 2020?
NYT/Siena rust belt tomorrow now I think. Last of the aggregate and opinion movers other than a respected local PA pollster still to drop maybe.

 

And by the way, the reason political geeks wanted to see this poll is not only because she’s a great pollster, but there’s been a supposition that white america has shifted away from trump a bit, and that has been offset by people of color moving his way. The NYT/Sienna polls have been modeled on that premise and are showing that pattern. Some of the more pro trump polls are using a more 2020 like model. This gives NYT/Siena more weight, and that includes things like her needing a much smaller national lead to win (they had her minus one nationally in their final poll), and affirms their rust belt polling, which has favored her. But means tomorrow’s polls from them may be even more important. It also means their sunbelt polling may be accurate, and she really has to win the rust belt to win it.

But here’s the crazy implication now EV count wise. She could lose Wisconsin and offset it with Nevada and Iowa lol.

 

The windshield view---in the counties where I see the most patients (hospice chaplain) there are not nearly as many Trump signs as there had been in the past when I was driving through to see family and friends. They are very rural counties. In a couple of spots Harris signs outnumber Trump--which in those areas is shocking!!

In the "urban" areas the Harris signs far outnumber Trump.

I would be very pleasantly surprised if Harris wins Iowa! The big question would be how long are the coattails and can be try to get some common sense in the state legislature!!

From the article with the poll:

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris pulls ahead in state Donald Trump won twice

A victory for Harris would be a surprising development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.

 

It’s going to be a massive blowout. Ignore the fake polls and the media narrative who want it to be a horse race for ratings reasons, and read between the lines and pay attention to trends like this. It’s not close.

 

And by the way, when I say she’s a great pollster, that’s not hyperbole. This is her record. In the last seven polls she’s done she’s only been off by more than this difference once. This could still be a statistical anomaly, but this is Silvers quote on it below.

 

Polymarket all a sudden at 55/45 Trump as all the new polling info comes in. I don’t really care since I think betting sites are trash, but since so many Trumpers on here love it, there you go.

 

This escalated quickly. Will this dude disappear if Harrris wins like that FSU fan who promised to eat dog poop

 

By the way, not to forget our right leaning friends, Atlas Intel is on the case. They somehow did a 2000 person poll in three days coming off another one.


Someone is wrong though, there isn’t a universe in the multiverse where she is plus three in Iowa and losing the rust belt. This is a 15 point swing from how they voted comparatively in 2020 (-10 to +5), that won’t even remotely happen. My guess is both sides give up ground in the end.

 

This guy made a tweet under his own Twitter account pretending to be a black woman voting for Trump. He has less IQ than my left pinky finger.

 

Every time Trump failed to win an Emmy he said because it was rigged. When Ted Cruz beat Trump in the Iowa primary in 2016 Trump said because it was rigged. Does maga think that those situations were rigged as well?

 

By the way, Kamala on SNL tonight allegedly.

 

I’m sure Trump will handle that well.

 

Yeah it’s clearly suspect. Having said that, I’d sure prefer her to be favored on Tuesday.

 

Didn't recall that you had an Iowa connection. I was born in Davenport, Iowa. Lived across the river in Moline til I was 13 when we moved to FL. Don't mean to sidetrack the thread, but my impression of Iowa people is the same - decent / up front. Conservative values for sure and it's becoming increasingly difficult for true cons like many of those in IA to vote Trumph.

 

The site I bet at went from Trump -200 to Trump -130 in a day and half. Again, as you said these aren't predicative, but still interesting.

 

My sister lived in Moline too before moving closer to Des Moines. Been there many times to the Quad cities. Nice, friendly people always willing to help their neighbors.

 

Haha. Go down 61 about 3/4 of the way to Burlington and you’d be where I spent my summers as a kid. Learned a lot of good small town values in my time there. Certainly spent a decent amount of time in the quad cities, was in a tornado in Burlington. Fun times…

 

Now it just changed to 54/46 on Polymarket. He was literally up 68/32 on there like 5 days ago. Lol.