The polling data, along with the early voting data would have to be very misleading for a Harris win to happen. Add to that she’s playing with Biden’s house money, which historically has been a very good indicator of whether or not the incumbent party keeps the presidency. His approvals are atrocious. But it’s fun to watch libbies talk themselves into believing a Harris victory scenario. Keeps the inevitable Election Night meltdown by all the libbies in play.
I did not think Trump was going to win in 2016 or 2020. I think he’s clearly the heavy favorite this year. His approvals are higher than they were in those two years by far. That alone puts him over the top. Especially with an unpopular incumbent party in the WH. There are basic tenets of how elections play out. The only one I’ve ever seen that didn’t was 2016. Harris doesn’t have that kind of following and she is not a good candidate. For example, if Harris had ran against Trump as the nominee in 2020, she would have stood a better chance of victory than she does now. The fundamentals were much more in her favor in 2020.
I believe only recently we are seeing the real reason she did not pick him. With the various court cases thus far and more to come in PA, Shapiro would have raised some red flags in terms of conflict of interest. He has been quite active on the behalf of Harris thus far. Hard to do that and maintain the appearance of impartiality. And it would be too ripe for Trump picking if the race came down to a few thousand votes and Shapiro weighed in on a consequential decision. It would almost undoubtedly get to the SCOTUS and we know how that’s likely to turn out. So, Harris kinda had to go with someone else. But in all likelihood, it wasn’t her decision. However, it was the right one. Imagine if Cheney was governor of Florida in 2000. I mean we saw the outrage from the Dems over the Florida Secretary of State that year. And of course Jeb was there.
Early Pennsylvania voting data has highlighted two potentially worrying trends for Donald Trump's hopes of beating Vice President Kamala Harris in the crucial battleground state, according to analysis. Trump won more support from the over-65s in both the 2020 and 2016 elections nationally. The former president got around 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania at the 2020 election while still losing the state to Joe Biden. The early voting figures suggesting Harris is leading among the over-65s is also backed by recent polling. A Fox News survey conducted from October 24 to 28 of 1,310 registered Pennsylvania voters showed that Harris has a 5-point lead over Trump among over-65s (51 percent to 46). The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
I don’t see how even Harris’s best national poll on RCP, Morning Consult at +3 for her wins her the presidency. California and New York are only getting bluer as GOP leaners GTFO. Texas keeps flirting with purple status. (gee wonder how that happened) She has to sweep the rust belt. Not sure a +3 popular win puts her over the top in WI. Let alone PA.
Early voting numbers in PA are quite good for Harris. Biden had a 1.1 million firewall going into Election Day. I don’t recall what Harris’s firewall is but it’s undoubtedly huge.
Silver’s update today is calling it nearly 50/50 after he said some favorable swing state polls moved the model towards Harris. She got a little final momentum as he said this is the highest his model has rated her in two weeks. This has been the most favorable model for Trump.
Here's an article on LDS support for Harris in Arizona. Ten years ago, if you asked these people if they would ever vote for a D for President, they would've said never. Yet, 18% of Mormons voted for Biden in 2020. And according to the article, it could be 25% to 30% for Harris! The LDS are still registered Rs, and were part of the 9% crossover in 2020. The crossover in Arizona could be even higher this time.
If you thought Harris was gonna win you'd put money on it. You know that hoe (as Judge Joe Brown calls her) is gonna lose. Shut your pie hole
Nationally, Harris is winning the under 30 vote by 25+. And this poll was taken before the MSG "love fest" and the Access Hollywood tape going viral on Tik Tok. In Arizona, Harris had only a 9 point lead, but with 6% undecided at the time. Not difficult to see the late beakers going 2:1 for Harris, which would give her an 11 point advantage in this age group. 1.1 million voters in Arizona under 30. 50% of them voted in 2020. Turnout is expected to be higher this year.
RCP battleground state average up to +1.1 for Trump now. It’s the widest margin to date for Trump. These 7 states will dictate the outcome of the election. The aggregate is the best indicator of what’s happening in these states. And considering that it’s 2 states that have always polled much worse than actual result for Trump, whom are dragging his average down, I feel like that +1.1 point aggregate lead is probably higher than that.
She will, she knows the importance of that state, and the early data from the exit polling looks super encouraging. There’s a reason Trump is already screaming foul with PA, he’s seen his internal polling there.
You know nothing. Trump is up by least by 3 in Arizona, probably by 5+. What's wrong with your brain dude? You're completely out of it. Unbelievable.
